IBHOF’s boxing and gambling expert Graham Houston looks for value in this weekend’s showdown against WBO middleweight champion Savannah Marshall and Belgian rival Femke Hermans.
The middleweight has a big punch Savannah Marshall tops the bill on Sky Sports from Newcastle tonight and she will no doubt find a way to be the first to stop the Belgian team Femke Hermans and in the process, one better than Claressa Shields, who won a decisive 10th round against Hermans three years ago. (The shields will be by the bell for the game against Newcastle.)
Hermans is tough and she is the game. She transitions between mainstream male style and mainstream style. I don’t think Hermans was knocked out, but Shields let her do a left hook in the final inning of their match.
An injury-time win for Marshall almost nailed it. Hermans is a naturally smaller woman, she doesn’t have much power and she’s only boxed three times in the last three years. Under/over was placed in 4.5 innings. Marshall gets right into the business and will often find a way to hurt her opponents at the earliest. Pride and giddy will probably drag Hermans past 4.5 rounds but I believe this fight is only fought for one reason only, that is to get Marshall to get Hermans out there and make more noise. echoes the inevitable encounter with Claressa Shields.
Cards under Newcastle
Big ticket seller Florian Marku Meet more experience Chris Jenkins in a 10 round welder. Marku is a fresher, stronger and heavier fighter. Jenkins had a good win over Julius Indongo in his final bout, but at 33 and after some tough, bloody fights, I’m afraid he’s at the end of his career. Jenkins was prone to cuts and swelling around his eyes and even in his win over aging Indongo showed signs of vulnerability. I think Marku can win this in the distance, and a small stab at the “Distance – Zero” clause at 10/11 (-110) might make sense.
Zak Chelli respond instead Jack Kilgannon in an eight-round match in the 168-pound division. Kilgannon is tall and he’s a laborer but Chelli fought at a higher level and he looks like a better boxer and a better puncher. I think it’s possible to win a Chelli KO but you’re looking at less than attractive odds around 10/19 (-190) for overtime recommendation.
Unbeatable Mid-Range Lead Bradley Rea should overtake 36-year-old Namibian Lukas Ndafoluma but the odds of 1/34 don’t interest me and the 5.5-round over/under looks tough.
For those who like to accumulate, Chloe Watson, Luke Cope, Georgia O’Connor, April Hunter and Matty Harris all should go through.
I thought there might be a sneaky shot of the money in a duel with a woman between a 22-year-old from County Durham Georgia O’Connor and Erica Alvarez of Argentina. They meet in a scheduled six-round tie against Newcastle.
O’Connor had a solid amateur career. In her only professional bout, she went up against an opponent whose sole goal was to crouch and dive and survive. Alvarez, 31, looks like the much more combat-ready type of boxer.
Alvarez has a 2-5 record (0 KOs). Although she was never stopped, four of the five opponents who defeated Alvarez didn’t have a single win between them. She turned a professional lightweight athlete a year ago but weighed only 152 pounds for the O’Connor bout and looked soft in her body. Alvarez’s weight in tonight’s match was 13 pounds more than she weighed in her last fight, which took place less than a month ago. Is she fully prepared?
Six two-minute innings isn’t much time to work with. But O’Connor looked aggressive on her professional debut and looked frustrated that her opponent wouldn’t be able to fight. From what I’ve seen of Alvarez, she doesn’t move much. I like the idea of a little O’Connor vs Alvarez play “Distance – Zero” with overall odds of 6/5 (+120). It’s basically a speculative bet but I don’t think it’s bad form.
Main image: Marshall (left) struggled to find an equalizer tonight. Photo: Lawrence Lustig / BOXXER.
