IBHOF boxing and boxing gambling expert Graham Houston looks for betting value in Saturday’s major light-heavyweight clash between WBA champion Dmitry Bivol and Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez.
While Canelo Alvarez is prioritized to beat Dmitry Bivol in Las Vegas tonight at odds (1/4 at Betfred) is the closest they have played against Canelo since he first entered the lightweight division, meeting Sergey Kovalev. in 2019.
Bivol is a real test for Canelo. He’s undefeated, he’s moving well and he’s got great boxing skills, and of course he’s got the height and access to the edge – and he’s a 175-pound athlete who meets a champion. enemy 168lbs.
Canelo didn’t get it on his own in the first 10 rounds against Kovalev. It was a close contest into the 11th round, when Canelo found the punches to close the show. And Bivol is younger and faster than Kovalev.
The big hitters can feel confident placing a bid on Canelo but most bettors will be looking for a less expensive option.
It’s tempting to accept 4/1 (+400) odds offered for a nasty Bivol. But Canelo is Canelo. He found a way to win. And wouldn’t have bothered him if the other man was taller and had a longer reach. Canelo is excellent at slicing the ball from long distance and attacking the defense with his quick, difficult headers and body. Also, Canelo knows how to strike first; Taller fighters don’t always have the advantage when it comes to rushing in.
Bivol was able to send and sympathize with all the people he faced. Comfortable wins over Jean Pascal and Joe Smith Jr look good in hindsight seeing that both Pascal and Smith won the world championship after losing to Bivol.
However, Bivol did not look as impressive as usual when it overtook Craig Richards in the UK last May. Two of the judges had a very close exam. The determined Richards was able to reach Bivol with considerable success.
Perhaps Bivol simply had no motivation for a fight he was supposed to win easily. But, still, Richards’ duel raises the possibility that Bivol may have peaked even though at 31 he’s the same age as Canelo.
The massive lineup of Mexicans and Mexican Americans in the crowd will be right behind Canelo in this match Cinco de Mayo event, greeting every hit he landed with roars of approval. Bivol had never been involved in a war of this magnitude. Will he feel pressured on this occasion?
Bivol is the champion but he is not a particularly large, light heavyweight. Canelo is the puncher in the fight and he’s the more seasoned fighter. I was expecting Bivol to score with his dash and move in and out quickly, but can he go on for 12 innings? Canelo is very precise when he lets go and he has the ability to find scope with dangerous shots as the competition deepens.
For Canelo supporters who don’t want to bet 1/4, it’s a matter of deciding on the most likely winning method. Canelo win on offered points at 11/8 (-138) at Betfred while Canelo win cost gap 5/2 (+250). If Bivol wins, it will certainly be the deciding match of 12 innings. Bivol on point costs 17/2 (+850), which may attract lower bettors.
If you feel that the match will cover the distance but there is no solid backing for either fighter, then “Distance – Yes” is given at 8/15 (-188), which could be a good look. In the end, Callum Smith played a full 12 rounds with Canelo and Caleb Plant lasting until the 11th round.
Many would say that the umpires will give it to Canelo unless Bivol prevails in the fight. You hear this a lot. I don’t like this concept.
We have seen the scorecards close together in the games against Canelo. One judge said that Caleb Plant was only two rounds after 10 rounds. Canelo is up just 77-75 on one card after eight rounds against Billy Joe Saunders. The fight between Daniel Jacobs was tight on two scorecards and Erislandy Lara’s victory was by demarcation.
Canelo’s only decision with which I completely disagree was the draw in the first match against Gennadiy Golovkin; I think GGG won that close but it’s clear. I believe the fight will be judged fairly and if Bivol wins, he will have the right to decide.
As a straight pick, I would say Canelo at discretion. He’s experienced on big occasions and he knows how to get on the beat and win the rounds. I think Canelo looks great at 174.4lbs on Friday; thick-tendon, very strong and healthy. Simply put, Canelo looks like a winner.
One bet I’m quite fond of this weekend is that Alexis Espino will beat Aaron Silva a bit to beat Aaron Silva in a £168 undefeated meet at home to Canelo vs Bivol. Silva, from Monterrey, Mexico, is likely Cinco de Mayo loved by the audience, but Espino played at home in Las Vegas.
I think Espino might be a bit underrated after the eight-round draw with Rodolfo Gomez Jr. Yes, it was tough for Espino that night but he showed good fighting instincts to close the game strong in the final round. It’s been a good learning battle for Espino. He will have one of boxing’s elite coaches, Robert Garcia, in his corner.
Silva is a solid, good fighter but Espino could have more dimensions. I believe Espino has a deeper amateur background. And Espino is the house fighter in the Match Room promotion. Espino costs around 21/20 (+105) in the industry. I think those are reasonable odds. A bit of a 14/1 draw (+1400) wouldn’t be such a bad idea.
Main image: Canelo (left) and Bivol (right) clash in Las Vegas tonight. Photo: Ed Mulholland / Matchroom Boxing USA.
