Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
On Tweeterverse, I saw someone say:
The NASA GISSTEMP global average rose above 1.5 degrees Celsius for two months in 2016.
Hmmm, sez me… why not since then?
So I thought I’d look at the key global surface temperature estimates for the 21st Century.
The datasets that I used are the surface temperature datasets from the Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS), the Hadley Climate Research Unit (HadCRUT), Berkeley Earth, and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). ), along with the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), the University of Alabama Huntsville’s Microwave Pronunciation Unit (UAH MSU), and the Microwave Sequence System (RSS) satellite-based dataset MSU).
I performed a breakpoint analysis of structural changes for each. I have Not selected breakpoints. They are selected and their uncertainty is estimated using the Bai & Perron algorithm implemented in the R computer language pack “strucchange”.
Here they are in no special order:
Surface station dataset
Satellite based dataset
Apparently, there has been a change in sea surface temperature in the 21st century. For most of the second half of the 20th century, the temperature has increased by the order of 0.15°C per decade. But in this century, for most of the period from 2000 to the end of 2014, the growth rate of most datasets was much less.
And in all seven datasets, since the 2015/16 pre-El Nino breakpoint, temperatures have stayed at or down…
Hmm…
An interesting note. The records are divided into two groups — the CERES, JMA, RSS and UAH data showed little change as of 2015. But three of the ground station-based data sets, GISS, HadCRUT and Berkeley Earth, have markedly changed trend. 2005. Why? Dunno… but it doesn’t increase my confidence in the underlying data. My guess is that those three terrestrial datasets, GISS, HadCRUT and Berkeley Earth, are contaminated by urban Heat Islands or excessive “homogenization”. However, that is just conjecture.
My best wishes to all,
w.
P.S. — Please help us and when you comment, REVIEW what you are saying. This avoids endless misunderstandings.
PPS — Be clear that I do not predict the future — I am reporting on the past…
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