Back in November, Los Angeles Lakers is an afterthought in NBA Finals Odds Market. LeBron James and Co. There can be odds in excess of 100/1 to win the title.
Fast-forward to May 9, four games into the second round of the NBA knockouts, and that’s a whole different story. The Lakers have moved ahead leading to second choice at most sportsbooks, just behind Boston Celtics.
And that is creating potential liability issues for gamblers.
A few of those bookies have pointed out how bad things could be for the books — and how good for bettors — if the Lakers turn this into a championship match.
Long climb
When FOX Bet first posted the 2022-23 NBA championship odds in June, the Lakers were +2500. After LA’s 123-109 season opening loss at golden state, FOX Bet moved the Lakers to +3500. Three weeks into the season, the Lakers have a disastrous 2-10 as they continue to slide across the odds table.
“At the end of November, they peaked at +15000,” said Tieme Wesselink, FOX Bet trader.
In colloquial terms, it’s 150/1, meaning a $100 bet will yield a $15,000 profit. But the Lakers are hardly a team that can take home such a ticket.
Some bettors remained loyal, however, entering LA, and the Lakers slowly moved into the playoff picture. Los Angeles ended the regular season 43-39 and returned with an opening score of +2500 to win the championship.
Then LA made it to the play-in to get the West 7th seed. That was followed by a 4-2 win in the first series against second seed Memphis Grizzlies. And now, the Lakers lead the defending NBA champions Golden State Warriors 3-1 in the Western Conference semifinals.
Crazy, Los Angeles is now +350 to win the NBA championship. Only the Boston Celtics (+160) have shorter odds.
“The Lakers are currently at the top of the market for the Western Conference (teams), which has completed their remarkable turnaround,” Wesselink said. “Their bubble championship season has been a surprise, but a Finals play this year will overtake that surprising knockout from 2020.”
And a Lakers title would mean a lot to bettors.
“The Lakers are our biggest liability in the NBA Finals market,” Wesselink said. “The 76ers are our second-worst result, but our liability for the 76ers is 30% less than for the Lakers.”
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Similar restrictions elsewhere
The SuperBook operates in several states, but its flagship remains Las Vegas, which has long been a major market for Lakers bettors, thanks to its proximity to Southern California. The customers didn’t hesitate to open fire even after the Lakers’ bad start.
“The Lakers are one of our biggest debts each season, if not the biggest,” said John Murray, chief executive officer of SuperBook. “Definitely, our customers bought them all season long. We hit a peak of 200/1 in November and wrote several small tickets with that margin. The biggest ticket cost 333. dollars.”
But do the math there. That one ticket, if drawn now, would be a net profit of $66,600. And as Murray noted, there are some tickets out there with those long odds. A SuperBook customer placed a $1,250 bet on 40/1 odds of a $50,000 win.
When the knockouts began four weeks ago, Murray said the book wrote a number of tickets on the Lakers +1200. Granted, those won’t pay as much as a plane ticket from November. But for now consider that the Lakers are a +300 second pick in the NBA Finals market.
“Of course, the Lakers are our biggest responsibility.
At WynnBet, Los Angeles is 3/1 to win the title, behind only the Celtics, who are +145. Both of those teams are trouble spots behind the counter, although for WynnBet – which operates out of Massachusetts – the Celtics are a much bigger problem, thanks to a lot of betting on the hometown team.
The Lakers are WynnBet’s second largest debt, right before phoenix sun.
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Alternative market
It’s not just the standard NBA championship futures market that has sportsbooks behind the eight ball with the Lakers. For example, FOX Bet is keen to avoid a particular NBA Finals.
“In terms of Finals accuracy, the Lakers to beat the 76ers were backed at +9000,” Wesselink said. “And to make it to the Finals, the Lakers vs. 76ers matchup was back up until a few weeks ago with a peak of +5000.”
So, needless to say, the FOX Bet doesn’t want to be in the Lakers-Sixers championship series. Especially if that series ends with LeBron James lifting another trophy.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a well-known journalist in the field of national sports betting. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in the 110 degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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