At a Glance: BC Turf Berth at Stake in Sword Dancer

The $750,000 Sword Dancer Stakes (G1T) is a 1 1/2-mile turf feature at Saratoga Race Course for 3-year-olds and older that is now part of the Travers Stakes Day undercard.

As the season’s premier turf race at the summer’s premier race meet, the Sword Dancer has long attracted the best horses in the distance turf division hoping to advance onward to this fall’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1T).

As if the stakes weren’t already high enough, the Sword Dancer is also a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” race, guaranteeing its winner a paid spot in the starting gate for the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Santa Anita Park. This year’s edition of the Sword Dancer drew a seven-horse field. Let’s take a glance at the contenders.

1. Soldier Rising  (5-1 morning-line odds): Winless since taking a high-priced allowance-optional claiming race right here at Saratoga a year ago, but Solider Rising has kept exclusively grade 1 and grade 2 company since then and has hit the exacta on two occasions in New York already this year when second in the Man o’ War Stakes (G1T) in May and in the Manhattan Stakes (G1T) in June. He finished third by a length in this race last year. Exits a sub-par finish in his most recent race, in which he ran seventh in the Bowling Green Stakes (G2T), but that loss is a toss-out because he was moving nicely into contention in that race until affected by a spill on the turn that completely wiped out his chances. He does not show too many clunkers in his past performances and has a big chance for a rebound effort today to get revenge over the horses in this race that beat him last time. If you are looking for an alternative to the favorites in this race at better odds, this horse is the most likely upsetter.

2. Verstappen  (8-1): Established his long-distance graded stakes credentials with his victory this spring in the 1 1/2-mile Elkhorn Stakes (G2) at Keeneland but has been unable to build on that success since then with a seventh-place finish in the Man o’ War Stakes and a loss as the favorite in an ungraded stakes race at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Exits a second-place finish in the local prep for the Sword Dancer in the Bowling Green Stakes but was unable to get past Channel Maker that day and his chances were aided when 1-2 odds favorite Rebel’s Romance  fell and Soldier Rising lost all chance. This race looks like a tougher assignment.

3. Bolshoi Ballet  (5-1): Invades from overseas for the world-class barn of trainer Aidan O’Brien and has already successfully crossed the pond for a grade 1 victory, which he did in the 2021 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1T) en route to a sixth-place finish in that year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. Now resurfaces in the United States for the first time since that November 2021 outing but is still without a win in more than two years and exits a big loss in his last race in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot. A rebound performance in a spot like this is certainly not out of the question for top connections, but he will be bet down on the toteboard and others in the field may offer better value.

4. Daunt  (20-1): Faced some of these same horses last time as a 33.25-1 longshot in the Bowling Green and finished fourth without an apparent excuse. Now will be a longshot once again and not only will he need to turn the tables on Channel Maker and Verstappen, who both beat him last time, but he’ll also need to knock off some other toughies as well. Winless in five career outings on the turf at Saratoga with no finishes in the money.

5. Pioneering Spirit  (8-1): Faces a stiff class test in this grade 1 but has earned his chance in this race on the strength of a red-hot winning streak on the New York turf with four wins in a row starting against maiden claimers as recently as May and proceeding upward in class from there with no horse coming close to beating him in any of the three subsequent allowance-level wins on his resume, culminating with a 3 3/4-length win here at Saratoga going 1 3/8 miles last time out. Shows an improving speed-figure trend in all of the recent races as the distances have increased. Jose Ortiz is off to ride Soldier Rising, but nothing is lost today with leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. picking up the mount. Is this horse ready for a step up against graded stakes competition? The answer appears to be yes. Is he good enough against this level of grade 1 competition in this spot? Perhaps, but a minor finish in the exotics seems much more likely than a victory.

6. Channel Maker  (7-2): Veteran high-level turf performer showed he is not ready to pack it in quite yet when he was sent for the lead and went wire-to-wire last time out to win the Bowling Green Stakes right here at Saratoga against several of today’s same challengers. He was allowed to basically get away with murder on the lead when setting an easy early pace, and his best chance to win today would be for him to get a similar front-running trip. The question is whether or not Stone Age  will allow him to get an easy lead again, and there is also the possibility of some token pressure coming from presser-stalker Bolshoi Ballet, and perhaps even Daunt who may consider his only chance in the race to be if he goes for the lead. Most of the career-best performances from Channel Maker have fallen off the bottom of the past performances at this point, but he has more than $3.8 million in career purse earnings and is a veteran of six Breeders’ Cup races, including a third-place finish in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Turf that solidified him as that year’s Eclipse Award winner as champion turf male. Keep in mind that his Bowling Green victory was accomplished after the 1-2 odds favorite in the race, Rebel’s Romance, clipped heels and lost the rider. Nevertheless, he proved he’s not finished yet with that win, and his chances to repeat in this race seem to hinge on whether he can benefit from the same type of pace advantage that helped him wire the field in the Bowling Green.

7. Stone Age (6-5): Finished second in a strong effort in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Turf and has gone globetrotting since then to take shots at rich group 1 races in Hong Kong and Qatar without much success in either race. On the plus side, Stone Age seems to have found a much better spot today in this edition of the Sword Dancer against a field that may not be among the strongest ever assembled for this prestigious event. Lost in prior career turf forays to New York but did give respectable efforts in those grade 1 races at shorter distances. Well-suited for this 1 1/2-mile trip and actually owns sneaky-good early speed that would give him the ability to lead this race if he chooses. His 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf effort was a prime example of his pace versatility when he stalked the pace close-up in a 13-horse field and then outfinished War Like Goddess  for second. Flavien Prat picks up the mount for Saratoga’s leading trainer Chad Brown, and Prat will have some pace decisions to make that will have a huge impact on the outcome of the race. Expect him to keep close tabs on Channel Maker every step of the way, which will not improve the chances of winning for either horse.

THE PICK: Soldier Rising 

LIVE LONGSHOT: Pioneering Spirit