In several previous blogs, I have criticized some media – such as The Seattle Times – for misrepresenting the public about extreme weather events.
Unfortunately, the media spoofs have had help from those in government and academia, and there are few better examples than the latest claims of severe drought. ongoing in Washington State.
A case in point is the latest official Drought Tracking graphic for Washington State produced by the US Department of Agriculture (see below). According to their analysis, about half the state is in moderate drought, about a quarter is in severe drought, and about 10% in EXTREME drought.
The extreme area extends from approximately Yakima to Ephrata (see satellite map below, with the “extreme” area shown by the black oval). Much of the “severe drought” area is irrigated with water from the Yakima and Columbia rivers and so will not suffer agricultural damage as long as those rivers have an abundant flow (which they will).
Do actual observations and climate data point to extreme drought in eastern Washington?
The answer is obviously not. But you decide for yourself after looking at the data.
Snowpack
Let’s start with the snow cover, and we’re too late for the season where the current ice sheet tells us a lot about water availability this summer. The latest official snow and ice counts for Washington State are extremely encouraging – more than 100% of normal in general, with the lowest rate of normal (Lower Yakima) of 78% reasonable health.
There is no drought ice.
The predicted flow level of the river
Check out two important rivers that supply the “extreme drought” region: the Yakima and the Columbia.
Yakima River reservoirs are WAY, WAY above normal (see latest vs. normal storage chart, below). Red is normal, blue indicates this year’s value.
Amazing. The existing reservoirs were full as usual in June after the spring snow melts. With a large snow cover, there will be plenty of water for agriculture around the Yakima Valley.
The NOAA/NWS River Forecast Center in Portland has released its latest 120-day river level forecast (mid-August), as shown below. Yakima is predicted to be at 140-150% of normal and Columbia to be around 100% of normal.
No shortage of water for irrigation, fish!
Soil moisture
What about soil moisture outside the irrigated area? Soil moisture is certainly important for dryland wheat farmers in the Palouse region.
NASA has a satellite-based system for soil moisture analysis called GRACE. Here are the latest national values, with a shock to Washington below. Blue indicates OVER NORMAL values. Note the blue color over much of the extreme drought area. Other soil moisture analyzes are similar.
Precipitation
Meteorologists like to look at the year’s precipitation of water, total precipitation from October 1 to the present, to provide a composite view of winter humidity. For Washington State (see below), five are fairly wet from the Cascades to the west and near normal (light green and yellow) east of Washington.
But with all the talk about climate change and the unprecedented “extreme drought”, let’s take a historical perspective.
Below is the precipitation for the water year (October 1 to April 24) in Yakima, WA since 1945. This year is slightly on the dry side, many years (about two decades) drier or drier. Exceptionally difficult.
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Since there is concern about wheat farms in the drylands of Palouse, this is the same picture for Pullman. Pretty much close to normal this year.
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You will notice that there is little or no long-term trend in the rainfall record over the past 75 years….that’s what matters. Eastern Washington hasn’t gotten any drier due to global warming.
Key point
The essential message is that weather and climate data do not support claims of extreme or severe drought in eastern Washington this year.
There is no chance of water problems in or near the Columbia River Basin. Drought Screen graphics, which are subjectively created, are full of problems and omissions that we should not be considered or applied to any serious decision-making.
The media loves apocalyptic and scary graphics for obvious reasons, but using these graphics to misinform the public is at best problematic and at worst unethical. .
Finally, I should note that the big problem last summer was the extreme heat wave that lasted into late June. There is no reason to expect that extraordinary event to repeat itself, once in a few hundred years.
