The few chilly days before Christmas are the only taste of winter that many regions feel throughout the season, as warm and often spring-like weather dominates the entire season in North Carolina.
In looking back at winter not like that, we consider Seasonal rankings And total snowfallour review winter outlookand look forward to a spring without La Niña.
Winter through the numbers
This climatic winter, from December 1 to February 28, ranks as 4th hottest on record based on statewide average temperatures of 46.7°F, according to the National Center for Environmental Information. That’s 3.9°F warmer than the average from 1991 to 2020.
While our pre-Christmas cold snap is censored Decemberour average is the 61st coolest temperature on record, followed by our 8th warmest January and 3rd warm February dating from 1895.
Locally, it ranks as the 3rd warmest winter in Greenville, RaleighAnd Wilson; 4th hottest in Greensboro And catkin; and the 5th hottest in Asheboro, City of ElizabethAnd Wilmington based on long-term records at all sites.
Our winter average of 11.03 inches is 0.12 inches below the 30-year average and it ranks as 65th dry winter over the past 128 years. While January have above-normal rainfall, both December And February slightly drier than usual statewide.
Aside from a three-week period in late January and early February that saw numerous low-pressure systems engulf the Coastal Plains, the prevailing weather pattern this winter is wetter than in the west. and drier in the east, with systems like the cold front drying out as they cross the mountains.
Waynesville ended the season 3.32 inches above normal, with the 14th wettest winter in 111 years of observations. Murphy 2.83 inches higher than normal in the 11th wettest winter since 1968.
Charlotte 3.17 inches higher than normal in the 41st wettest winter on record, while Raleigh 0.33 inches lower than normal for the season.
Down east, Wilmington 3.22 inches below normal and had the 33rd driest winter in 144 years. Mantis (-2.29 inches), Morehead City (-2.04 inches), Washington D.C (-2.40 inches) are all below normal for the season.
Total amount of snowfall
With some cold air to support freezing precipitation, it eventually turned into a snowless winter over most of Piedmont and the Coastal Plain, and even the Mountains had limited accumulation for the season. .
IN Raleigh, this is the 10th winter since 1944 without significant snowfall and the first winter since 2005-06. Because Charlotte, this is the ninth winter since 1940 without any accumulation of snow, with the previous occurrence in 2011-12. IN Greensboroit was the first snowless winter since consecutive snowless years in 1990-91 and 1991-92.
lack of snow in Asheville even more surprising. This is only the second winter since 1965, along with 2011-12, with no measurable snowfall there. For a location that averaged 10.3 inches of snow per year and only 10.9 inches last year, this winter was a change and a miss.
Even on the highest peaks of our state, snow is hard to come by. Mount Mitchell, which averages 89.1 inches of snow annually, has received only 19.9 inches this year. If they don’t get any more snow in March or April, it will be the snowiest winter since 1980, breaking the previous record of 28.5 inches from 2001-02.
In the northern mountains, elk banner has 12.8 inches compared to the 31.4-inch category average. Nearby Hawksnest Ski Resort Closed February 24-26 due to rain and “decreasing conditions” in advance closed for the season on February 27, citing “continued warmer temperatures and lack of snow.”
A La Niña By-the-Book
in us winter outlook issued last November, we have noted the remarkable nature of the ongoing La Niña pattern, which has lasted through the third winter in a row. In keeping with its typical impacts, we expect an overall warmer and drier winter than usual, along with a winter less favorable for winter events.
La Niña’s grip on jet streams – which typically retreat north and keep storm systems away from our shores – loosened long enough in late January and early February for the drought Although unusually Dry (D0) conditions persist across the Coastal Plain for most of the winter, and Moderate Drought (D1) has recently returned in parts of eastern North Carolina.
The warm, windy weather in those dry areas also produces some bonfire activity in early spring, as we warned in our outlook. On March 7, a fire burned 3,500 acres on Camp Lejeune, and the next day, almost 300 acres burned in Cumberland County, forcing 10 homes to evacuate.
Our predictions for February warmer weather – in line with recent trends, especially during La Niña events – are also in place, and we even agree with 80 weather level in mid-February 2018, which foreshadows similar conditions this year.
All in all, we can say that this year’s winter has largely been in line with our expectations, perhaps because the long La Niña gave us a lot of experience to base them on.
Spring has overflow?
Despite tenaciously holding on for the past three years, the La Niña model wasted little time leaving as this year’s winter ended.
Like NOAA’s ENSO Blog ReportThe weekly sea surface temperature anomaly over the central Pacific returned to the neutral range by the first week of March, and the cooler tip extending westward from the South American coast has eroded. worn down and replaced with warmer water.
That could be the first sign of a developing El Niño, but we won’t know for sure until later this year when we see how conditions across the Pacific develop during spring and summer. summer.
For now, we can say that any effects of La Niña on the atmosphere, such as its gravitational pull on jet streams, will soon disappear. That could be good news for the arid regions of eastern North Carolina. The last time we escaped a La Niña event was in 2018, which was our 9th wettest spring on record statewide.
The Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook for April, May and June gives most states at least a 50% chance of temperature above normalbut mostly equal opportunity above normal, near normal or below normal precipitation.
While we won’t reach average freezing day last spring over the Coastal Plain through late March and through Piedmont through the first or second week of April, current forecasts do not suggest a return of cold air in the next few weeks.
Although there are a few cooler nights through March, it looks like a warm spring is starting early and is likely on the way. In a sign of the changing seasons due to our unfavorable winter, most areas will likely have more pollen dust than snow on the ground in the first half of 2023.
