The long-awaited arrival of El Niño late last year helped our winter get off to a bright start, with multiple spells of rain across the state in December and January. But the warm weather is now now meaning no snow in most areas, the last snowflakes are now just a distant memory from more than two years ago.
To end this winter, we will look at the finals rankings and statistics for this season and evaluate the predictions from our winter outlook, which covers approx El Niño and its impactsours rainfall patternand lack of snowfall. We will also preview ENSO development coming this year and what it could mean for us.
Winter by the numbers
The three months from December to February, which make up the winter climate, are generally warm and humid in North Carolina.
Data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) shows this is tied 19th warmest winter since 1895, with temperatures averaging 2°F warmer than the average from 1990 to 2020.
Among local weather stations, this ranked as the 5th warmest winter for RaleighHottest on Friday Reidsvilleranked 8th warmest in the world Wilsonand 9th warm in both pecan And Salisbury.
NCEI data also notes this 28th wettest winter over the past 129 years, with a statewide average precipitation of 13.82 inches, or 2.67 inches above the 1991 to 2020 average.
Elk banner recorded its third wettest winter in 100 years with observations, measuring a total of 18.68 inches of precipitation. This is also the third wettest winter in the country Greensboro since 1903, the 5th wettest place in Marionand wet Friday in Morganton.
In eastern North Carolina, a drier winter left some areas with below-normal precipitation. Deficits ranged from just 0.27 inches in Greenville to 1.90 inches in Kinston to 3.13 inches at Hatteraswhich had the 14th driest winter in the past 67 years.
El Niño is active
In our winter outlook, released last November, we previewed the potential impacts of El Niño, the phenomenon that creates conditions for wet weather in our part of the country. And at that point, it couldn’t come soon enough, given the drought that blanketed more than half the state last fall.
Historically, a stronger El Niño usually means a stronger impact, and we expect one relatively strong El Niño events occurred this winter, with the Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly peaking at about 2.0°C above normal.
That’s a pretty accurate prediction by comparison Ocean Niño Index (ONI), shows an average winter temperature anomaly of +1.8°C.
Another indicator, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), shows a weaker signal across the season, with a maximum anomaly of 1.1°C in November and December, falling to 0.7°C in December and January.
In our outlook, we note that the MEI is also lower entering the season and recognize that it is not the only indicator that El Niño is less developed. The circulation pattern last October was characterized by a large area of convergence of the upper atmosphere, associated with surface high pressure, over the eastern United States.
That raises another prediction – that Wetter weather will not come immediately after winter begins.
In fact, we saw a remarkably rapid pattern change early in the winter, moving from weeks-long rainless spells in the fall to a series of heavy rains starting on the 10th. December. After our 42nd dry spell November in profile, December is our 7th wettest place in North Carolina.
Circulation patterns also reflect that change, with divergence in higher levels – and surface lows – over much of the continental United States and (severe) over the Gulf of Mexico in December.
While that was contrary to our predictions, it was hard to be disappointed when the rains returned steadily in early winter.
Rainfall patterns
Although we expect a drier winter, we also expect it Conditions are wetter in January or February – if not both.
The wet conditions from December have really carried over January, ranked as the 18th wettest place in the state. But by mid-month, parts of eastern North Carolina transitioned to drier weather, lasting well into February statewide.
That’s especially surprising because our climate has similarly moderate to strong El Niño winters. Ten of those 12 Februarys were wetter than average, so a dry February like this year’s is a rare event.
That unintentionally helped another prediction to be made correctly – that we there will be no clear drought map by the end of winter.
We recognize that it will take a near-historically wet winter to fully recover from the Severe (D2) and Extreme (D3) Drought conditions with which we began the season. But parts of western North Carolina had such a winter that it ranked in the top five or top 10 wettest on record, and all the drought was gone by mid-January.
However, late-season dryness led to moderate drought (D1) reappearing in parts of the Coastal Plain in late February, meaning there will be drought on the map later in the season.
Snow This Season
Given recent trends in winter temperatures, including warming linked to climate change, we expect a generally cooler season to be a long way off this year and instead we expected Average temperatures are close to above normal.
It turned out to be a warm season, with average temperatures 2 to 4 degrees above normal across the state. Our only period of sustained colder temperatures was from January 16 to 21, when nighttime temperatures were in the low teens.
In winter, which lasts 91 days, there are 55 days Raleighand 56 inches Charlotte, where temperatures never drop below freezing. That widespread warmth ultimately ended our chances of snow this winter.
The increasing frequency of storm systems tracking along our coast has historically made El Niño winters more favorable to cold weather and, as a result, we expect at least one measurable snowfall in most areas.
However, those rains never matched some of our cold spells, at least outside the Mountains, leaving this winter with the same fate as this year’s. the last – no snow across most of the state.
Even our higher elevations have had relatively little snow this winter. Mount Mitchell only 32.4 inches of snow – the 4th least in a season there, or just 36% of normal snow, and Marshall only 7.5 inches, or 30% less than normal.
Totals were a bit higher in the northern mountains, but even there, it was still a below-average season. Oak Mountain have 48.7 inches or less than normal 17.8 inches and Boone had 8.3 inches, compared to the normal of 25.6 inches.
Across the rest of the state, our snow-free streak has now lasted more than two years. Greensboro, MonroeAnd Raleigh all last saw measurable snowfall on January 29, 2022 or 779 days ago.
Since this post was published on March 18, CharlotteIndonesia’s current streak of 779 days without snow is the longest on record there, surpassing the previous streak of 778 days that ended in March 1993. And Asheville has also now set a new record of 737 days without snowfall, breaking the record set in February 2013.
What’s next for ENSO
In early March, there were worrying signs sea surface temperature across the equatorial Pacific: a small cool lake in the western Galapagos Islands.
There’s a lot more where that came from, as part of cooler water below the surface continued eastward and rose to the surface.
It’s a good sign that El Niño is on its way to ending, and that it’s happening quickly. Current model forecasts indicate a shift back to ENSO neutral conditions this spring and The majority now support it the development of a La Niña pattern later this year.
Of course, it will be a familiar feeling, because before the current El Niño, we endured three consecutive La Niña winters. Although each season is a little different, they are generally warm and dry winters, with only one particularly snowy month in the winter. January 2022.
As we head into next winter, we may feel the effects of La Niña in a decidedly unfrozen way. Weakening of tropical high-level trade winds typical of such events, combined with persistent trade winds record warm sea surface temperature in the Atlantic, there will likely be an active hurricane season this year.
While more hurricanes does not guarantee more landfalls — as last year showed, with 21 tropical storms but only three affecting the continental United States — it does increase the likelihood The potential for those systems or their remnants to affect us in late summer or fall.
Besides, the northward shift of the jet stream associated La Niña could eventually bring a change to warmer and drier weather patterns later this year.
If that happens – and it’s certainly a big deal ifas we are looking almost 9 months into the future and a lot can happen during the often chaotic summer as ENSO events build – then we can expect an unfavorable backdrop for snowfall next winter.
If we take any of the flak away, it will in some ways defy the odds, given our recent winter warmth and a La Niña pattern that is generally less consistent with the possibility of snow .
And if another year we’re contemplating another snowless winter, that means we’re in unprecedented, record-breaking territory across central and eastern North Carolina, with Snow drought conditions surpass a streak of more than three years dating back to the early 1990s.
Either way, the stage is set and anticipation is rising for a big winter next year.
