Guest “They Have It Again Bass-ackwards” by David Middleton
Power operators must stay awake to deal with climate change – or prepare for summer blackouts
BY ROMANY M. WEBB, KEY CONTRIBUTOR – 5/19/22 8:30 AM ET
VIEWS REPRESENTED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN VIEWS AND NOT HILL VIEWSSummer may be a month away, but power system operators are already feeling the heat.
With above average temperatures forecast For much of the United States in the coming months, system operators are facing the prospect of high electricity demand and reduced supply, which will make it difficult to keep lights on. System operators should have expected this. After all, everyone knows that climate change are increasing average temperatures and leading to more frequent heatwaves, putting stress on the electrical system. But many system operators still have no plans for this new normal. If they don’t start early, the consequences can be devastating.
Texas electricity consumers previewed what might happen last week. On Friday, at the start of a multi-day heatwave, the state’s six natural gas power plants were taken by surprise is offline. As temperatures in some areas hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit, Texas grid operator Electrical Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Ask residents to limit the use of air conditioners and other large appliances. Most residents complied and avoided widespread power outages. But one has to wonder – if this happens in May, what about July and August?
[…]
Unless and until things change, and system operators begin to plan for the effects of climate change, we should all be prepared for more power outages in the summer.
Romany Webb is an associate research scholar at Columbia Law School and a senior fellow at Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.
Perhaps Ms. Webb is calling for system operators to increase power generation capacity because of climate change? ERCOT seems to be doing just that…
April 14, 2022
Outlook for 2022: Solar almost half of 27 GW of planned ERCOT capacity additions
Author Selene Balasta Anna Duquiatan
Theme Energy
The Electrical Reliability Council of Texas Inc., the Lone Star State’s primary wholesale grid operator, is expected to see another record year in 2022 with planned capacity additions. is 27,242 MW and has no scheduled retirement, according to analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
A year after a deadly arctic explosion in February 2021 crippled the state’s power grid and caused protracted blackouts, Texas has taken steps to improve grid reliability.
All but three of the 324 power facilities completely passed ERCOT winter weather tests in January, and the grid operator was able to withstand a cold snap that turned into state in January. February 2022. However, some industry experts question whether the system is ready to handle a storm as intense as February 2021.
[…]
The addition of ERCOT capacity will please the likes of Mrs. Webb.
Fortunately, despite adding more unreliable things to the ERCOT grid, natural gas will still be the dominant fuel… Which leads us to this:
Texas electricity consumers previewed what might happen last week. On Friday, at the start of a multi-day heatwave, the state’s six natural gas power plants were taken by surprise is offline. As temperatures in some areas hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit, Texas grid operator Electrical Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Ask residents to limit the use of air conditioners and other large appliances. Most residents complied and avoided widespread power outages. But one has to wonder – if this happens in May, what about July and August?
Demand for electricity typically spikes during the warm summer months, with the highest peak occurring during summer heat waves, when people largely rely on their air conditioners to stay cool.
Just as humans struggle with the heat, so do many power generation facilities. In particular, natural gas power plants are operating less effective and thus produce less output when the temperature is high. Power supply is also becoming more difficult as higher temperatures can affect the operation of transmission infrastructure and lead to more electricity lost before reaching the consumer.
July and August will be hot in Texas. If July and August were not hot in Texas, it would be an anomaly. One of the reasons the February 2021 blackout was so bad was the fact that most thermal power plants in Texas are designed to handle hot weather, not extreme cold weather.
This is especially funny:
On Friday, at the start of a multi-day heatwave, the state’s six natural gas power plants were taken by surprise is offline.
Link is one Bloomberg article, of course…
Green
Texas Calls To Conserve Power After Six Generators Failed
Gas-powered plants make up all generations of failures: Ercot
West Texas will have intense heat in some spots next weekBy Naureen S Malik and Mark Chediak
May 13, 2022The Texas grid operator urged residents to conserve energy Friday after six generating facilities went offline during hot weather, sending electricity prices spike.
The Electrical Reliability Council of Texas said in an emailed statement Friday that the power plant failure resulted in the loss of about 2,900 megawatts of electricity. That’s enough electricity for about 580,000 homes and businesses. An Ercot spokesperson said:
[…]
ERCOT has issued a conservation request. However, at no point did actual grid conditions even approach “Yellow”…
Green = The grid is operating under normal conditions.
Yellow = Requires conservation of energy.
Orange (Energy Emergency Level 1) = Emergency operations have begun due to low power reserve, but there are no controlled outages at this time. Energy conservation is required.
Red (Energy Emergency Level 2) = Urgency has been raised due to continued low power reserve. Energy conservation is required. It is recommended that you develop a plan in case a controlled blackout is necessary in the future. People with significant medical needs should sign up with their local utility and have a backup plan.
Black (Energy Emergency Level 3) = The highest level of emergency operations. Local power companies have been instructed to initiate a controlled outage. Health and safety should be prioritized using city or county guidelines and resources. Conserving energy is very important.
The ERCOT dashboard doesn’t look much different than this from a weekend of climate change blackouts:
From May 12 to 15, peak electricity demand was less than ERCOT’s peak demand forecast.
And there was no drop in natural gas production during that period.
Wind power actually dropped sharply during the climate change blackout weekend (May 13-15), while natural gas continued to rise and fall in response to the ups and downs of the wind:
Why does nearly every natural gas breakdown report a wind failure?
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