If history is any guide, don’t expect Apple stock to outperform the S&P 500 over the next three months, Bernstein said. The tech giant is expected to hold an event on Wednesday where analysts expect the company to unveil new iPhone, Apple Watch and AirPods models. “Historically, Apple stock hasn’t reacted significantly to iPhone announcements (as there are usually no surprises) and performance has generally been fairly muted in the three months following iPhone announcements (usually mid-January). 9 through mid-November), as investors wait to gauge the strength of the iPhone cycle,” Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. “We expect the same this year.” According to Bernstein data, despite the usual hype, stocks typically perform in line with the market a month after the iPhone launches. And after three months, the stock is just beating the market a little. It wasn’t until six months later that common stock returned to its way of beating the market. One reason for the meager post-launch performance is that the transaction occurred during the event period. Common stock is up more than 13.9% against the S&P 500 in the three months leading up to its launch. Over the past three months, the stock has outperformed the market by 11.5%. Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan agreed in a note to clients that stocks may fall slightly after the event, but usually recover within 30 to 60 days. This year, other factors, including soaring inflation, a strong dollar and ongoing supply chain issues, could weigh on Apple’s stock and results ahead, analysts say. know. Against this backdrop, many analysts expect customers to pay more for some iPhones this year — or at least on the Pro models. “While we expect some pressure, we believe the rise of installment plans will reduce the impact significantly as customers will only need to pay a few dollars more per month per device. suffer,” wrote Credit Suisse’s Shannon Cross. JPMorgan Chase expects price increases in the wearables market to have more impact on investor sentiment, given their more discretionary nature, said analyst Samik Chatterjee, analyst Samik Chatterjee said. Bernstein’s Sacconaghi also believes that adding an extra week to Apple’s fiscal first quarter could affect results, given that the Christmas to New Year’s Eve period will add 7% to 8% to revenue. “That said, Apple’s fiscal Q4 Q1 strength has always been largely determined by the strength of its iPhone cycle, which has varied widely over the years – if the iPhone 14 cycle not strong, Apple’s December quarter can always be below average for Q4 sequentially for Q1 revenue growth (~50%), albeit with an extra week,” he wrote. Shares of Apple are down more than 15% from their 52-week high and down about 13% since the start of the year. – Michael Bloom of CNBC contributed reporting