US emissions cuts will be dwarfed by growth in India and China – Do you want to improve that?

Essay by Eric Worrall

h/t M; China’s new coal capacity since Chinese Premier Xi Jinping signed the Paris Agreement is almost equivalent to the total coal capacity of the United States.

China’s coal power boom

Even so, Beijing is building more coal-fired power capacity than the rest of the world combined.

Via Editorial board
September 12, 2022 6:26 p.m. ET

An unspoken truth of the climate change crusade is this: Whatever America does to reduce emissions will not have much of an effect on global temperatures. The US cuts will be filled by increases in India, Africa and especially China. Look no further than China’s new coal-fired power boom.

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S&P Global Commodity Insights recently estimated that China is planning or building coal-fired power plants with a combined capacity of at least 100 gigawatts. Those are just projects with confirmed development status, so the actual number will almost certainly be higher. The total electrical capacity of the United States is about 1,147 gigawatts. One gigawatt is enough energy to power 770,000 homes.

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Since China signed the Paris accord, the country’s coal-fired power capacity has increased by about 185 gigawatts, S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated earlier this summer. The United States has reduced coal capacity by about 80 gigawatts since the end of 2015. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported in January that active U.S. coal capacity is 209.6 gigawatts.

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Read more (with wall fee): https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coal-power-boom-beijing-xi-jinping-climate-energy-biden-administration-11650480857

China has more industrial capacity than the United States. It is only a matter of time until this advantage becomes a major geopolitical issue.

China is trying to turn that advantage of industrial capacity into a military advantagewith admittedly mixed results – but they won’t be forever inferior in the military arena.

For now, the US still has a chance to catch up with industrial capacity, by pursuing Trump such as energy and economic policies. But that opportunity is rapidly disappearing.

This failure to keep up will eventually have real consequences. For example, China is currently staying out of the Ukraine conflict. But what if they decide to get more involved? China’s vast industrial prowess could be used to provide a level of supply for Russian forces and any Chinese “volunteers” to the front lines, which the United States and other Western powers could not afford. will struggle to cope. The Chinese learn fast – any battlefield technology gap will quickly close, if China is committed to helping Russia win. Even worse, US military depends on Chinese components. Possibly if China stops supplying, there will be a period of months, if not years, during which it will be difficult for the United States to deal with China’s escalation, once stockpiles become available. The current military is exhausted.