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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #512 – Watts Up With That?


The Week That Was: 2022-07-16 (July 16, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “Any fool can know. The point is to understand.” ― Albert Einstein

Number of the Week: $3 Billion per year

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: Patrick J. Michaels died suddenly. A member of the SEPP board, Pat Michaels was an honest, diligent climate scientist with great integrity. He will be missed.

SEPP submitted comments on the draft U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031). These comments differed from comments submitted to SEC two weeks ago. One, the Kagan dissent to West Virginia v. EPA was discussed. Two, the filing of William Happer and Richard Lindzen in The State of Louisiana, et al. v. Joseph R. Biden, Jr. et al. was cited as presenting the deficiencies of the reports by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 1995. Three, the latest description of the HITRAN database from its website was presented including specifically named greenhouse gases and an updated article in Nature. Four, the successes of infrared devices such as night-vision goggles and precision infrared guided weapons were used to assert the validity of the HITRAN and MOTRAN databases. These would not work if greenhouse gases “trap” all heat energy (infrared) leaving the surface of the earth (a common misunderstanding). Finally, a new conclusion was submitted.

Jim Steele has a video on the decline of integrity of one of his former heroes – David Attenborough.

In Sri Lanka and Europe, farmers are protesting “green” policies by shallow-thinking politicians. One can express it as the farmers of the green revolution fight the city folk of green policies.

A research report from glaciers in the Andes gives a clear example of how research is distorted by political ideology.

Perhaps the absurdity of the week is the claim that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is an example of white colonialization of the atmosphere.

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RIP Patrick J. Michaels: Born in 1950, Pat Michaels obtained an A.B. in biological science in 1971 and an M.S. in biology in 1975 from the University of Chicago, and a Ph.D. in ecological climatology from the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He was a research professor of Environmental Sciences at University of Virginia for 30 years, where he was a close friend and colleague of S. Fred Singer, who founded SEPP.

Michaels is a past president of the American Association of State Climatologists and was program chair for the Committee on Applied Climatology of the American Meteorological Society. For twenty-seven years he was the Virginia State Climatologist, whose office is located at the University of Virginia. The University of Virginia treated Michaels shabbily when he left. Many university officials were more concerned with political conformity than scientific integrity.

Later, Michaels was the director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute. Then, he became Senior Fellow at the CO2 Coalition and the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

His writings have been published in major scientific journals, including Climate Research, Climatic Change, Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of Climate, Nature, and Science, as well as in popular serials worldwide. He is the author or editor of six books on climate and its impact, and he was an author of the climate “paper of the year” awarded by the Association of American Geographers in 2004, One of his books is Scientocracy: The Tangled Web of Public Science and Public Policy (2019); along with Paul Knappenberger he authored Lukewarming: The New Climate Science that Changes Everything (2016).

The second title demonstrates his efforts to bridge the difference between so-called climate deniers and advocates of dangerous warming. Michaels, Knappenberger, et al authored a paper titled “Revised 21st century temperature projections” published in 2002 by Climate Research. The abstracts states:

Temperature projections for the 21st century made in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) [AR3, 2001] of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate a rise of 1.4 to 5.8°C for 1990–2100. However, several independent lines of evidence suggest that the projections at the upper end of this range are not well supported. Since the publication of the TAR, several findings have appeared in the scientific literature that challenge many of the assumptions that generated the TAR temperature range. Incorporating new findings on the radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) aerosols, the magnitude of the climate sensitivity, and the strength of the climate/carbon cycle feedbacks into a simple upwelling diffusion/energy balance model similar to the one that was used in the TAR, we find that the range of projected warming for the 1990–2100 period is reduced to 1.1–2.8°C. When we adjust the TAR emissions scenarios to include an atmospheric CO2 pathway that is based upon observed CO2 increases during the past 25 yr., we find a warming range of 1.5–2.6°C prior to the adjustments for the new findings. Factoring in these findings along with the adjusted CO2 pathway reduces the range to 1.0–1.6°C. And thirdly, a simple empirical adjustment to the average of a large family of models, based upon observed changes in temperature, yields a warming range of 1.3–3.0°C, with a central value of 1.9°C. The constancy of these somewhat independent results encourages us to conclude that 21st century warming will be modest and near the low end of the IPCC TAR projections.

This resulted in the usual accusations of being funded by fossil fuel entities, with little or no supporting physical evidence. Despite these attacks, Pat Michaels remained positive in outlook and maintained his professional integrity throughout his life. He will be missed.

See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy – RIP and https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2003/23/c023p001.pdf

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Call for Public Comment USGCRP: SEPP submitted comments on the draft USGCRP Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031). Excluding endnotes, SEPP’s summary stated:

“Summary: In her dissent in West Virginia v. EPA (2022), Justice Kagan treated the U. S. Global Change Research Program, Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4, 2017) as if it were scientific evidence. It is not. It is not physical evidence, and it is not even a sound assessment of the physical evidence. It is a political opinion by those with degrees in science who have abandoned the scientific method to persuade others, special pleading.

To set the stage, we briefly discuss the scientific method and then show how the results in NCA4 derive from speculations about the greenhouse effect. The results are contradicted by fifty years of observations of what is actually occurring in the atmosphere. These observations and associated calculations support forty-three years of atmospheric temperature trends showing there is no climate crisis from the use of fossil fuels.

If the strategic plan of the upcoming USGCRP does not include the extensive physical evidence proving that greenhouse gases are warming the atmosphere modestly, not dangerously, then it is nothing more than a political effort to mislead the American public and the Federal Courts.

[The deficiencies of the reports by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 1995 are ably discussed by professors William Happer and Richard Lindzen in their Amicus Curiae brief in The State of Louisiana, et al. v. Joseph R. Biden, Jr. et al. filed on June 22, 2022, and will not be discussed here except to say that the IPCC has corrupted the peer review process and the studies used by those who try to justify the IPCC findings.]”

As with SEPP’s comments to the SEC a brief description of the development of the scientific method was provided. This was followed by a description of discovery of greenhouse gases by John Tyndall and the misunderstanding of Tyndall’s experiments by Svante Arrhenius. This was followed by a description of MODTRAN and a new description of HITRAN from its website:

“HITRAN is an acronym for high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database. HITRAN is a compilation of spectroscopic parameters that a variety of computer codes use to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of light in the atmosphere. The database is a long-running project started by the Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories (AFCRL) in the late 1960s in response to the need for detailed knowledge of the infrared properties of the atmosphere. A history of the HITRAN database has recently been summarized in the following article: [Boldface added]

“L.S. Rothman, History of the HITRAN database, Nature Review Physics 3, 302-304 (2021) https://www.nature.com/articles/s42254-021-00309-2

“For almost 50 years the HITRAN molecular spectroscopic database has been the standard archive for transmission and radiance calculations. Laurence Rothman reviews its history and some applications.”

“The HITRAN compilation, and its associated database HITEMP (high-temperature spectroscopic absorption parameters), are developed and maintained at the Atomic and Molecular Physics Division, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.”

“HITRAN online provides access to the latest version of the HITRAN molecular spectroscopic database.”

“Scientific Objectives

The simultaneous developments of high-resolution laboratory instrumentation (such as the Fourier transform spectrometer), the digital computer and storage, and sensitive detectors and the means to carry them on board high-altitude balloons and space craft provided the stimulus to create a machine-readable archive of the fundamental properties of molecular transitions. It was then possible to simulate transmission and radiance in the terrestrial atmosphere by applying known radiative-transfer equations. Thus, was born the original HITRAN molecular absorption line parameters database.

“The initial HITRAN was limited to the seven main telluric atmospheric absorbers in the infrared: H2O, CO2, O3, N2O, CO, CH4, and O2. The most significant of the isotopologues of these molecular species was also included. The initial HITRAN database included only the basic parameters necessary to solve the Lambert-Beers law of transmission, namely the line center of a transition, the intensity of the transition, and the lower-state energy. In addition, the air-broadened Lorentz width was included as well as the unique quantum identifications of the upper and lower states of each transition.

The description continues but interested readers can find it at the link below. SEPP added a statement regarding validation of the databases:

“Validation of Databases: The publicly available databases are validated by the use of optically guided precision munitions and “night vision” devices operating in the infrared range of electromagnetic energy, which is precisely the range involved in the earth’s surface losing heat to space.

For example, the Sidewinder air-to air-missile was first deployed in 1956 and with refinements is still in use today. The guidance system does not need to “see” the exhaust of a jet engine, just the heat signature on the fuselage is sufficient. With a range up to 22 miles, the latest versions can operate “head on” and can be launched from a wide variety of ground launches and aircraft with operating altitudes up to 50,000 feet. For the missile to operate properly, the calculations on how greenhouse gases influence infrared radiation have to be correct. The missiles cannot operate effectively in frequencies were greenhouse gases effectively block infrared radiation.”

The comments go through the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer and the amplification by Hayden. It concludes:

“Conclusion: The reports produced by the UN and the US government greatly exaggerate a warming from a doubling of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The temperature data taken by over forty-three years of satellite observations and weather balloon observations plus weather reanalysis data show this deficiency. Using the proper field of physics to understand the greenhouse effect, the proper mathematics (which includes integral and differential calculus as well as probability theory), and the proper databases based on atmospheric observations and calculations therefrom, competent physicists have calculated the maximum extent to which a doubling of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will increase temperatures is less than twenty-five percent of the average speculated in the Charney Report, repeated in the NCA.

If the USGCRP continues to use results based on speculative assumptions made over forty years ago and continues to ignore that these assumptions are contradicted by over fifty years of data from observations and experiments from validated databases, it will betray the trust the public and the Supreme Court has placed in government-funded science.”

Of course, TWTW does not have any expectations that this administration will make any changes, but the comments provide grounds for questions.

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy

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A Fallen Hero: In his video “Attenborough’s ‘Breaking Boundaries’ documentary; Distorting Science to Shill for One World Government” Jim Steele begins:

“Today I will look at how one of my environmental heroes is now betraying the science. When I taught ecological classes, I would eagerly incorporate many of Attenborough’s beautiful wildlife videos.

“But after just recently viewing his 2021 video, “Breaking Boundaries: the science of our planet”, I’ve been disturbed to see Attenborough’s magnificent cinematography increasingly used to distort the science, instill fear and shill for ‘a globalist agenda.’

“The video alternates between parallel narratives from Attenborough and narratives by a Swedish scientist, Johan Rockstrum. Together they pushed a myth that we are turning a planet that was once our friend, into a planet that is our foe.”

Steele then provides evidence contradicting major points in Attenborough’s documentary. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Green v. Green: One of the latest fads in “green” policies by politicians who are clueless is organic farming – no synthetic fertilizers. After all, synthetic fertilizers are made from petroleum. For example, nitrogen fertilizer is made by combining the nitrogen in the air with hydrogen in methane to produce ammonia (NH3). The ammonia is then used to create other forms of nitrogen including ammonium nitrate and urea (ammonia + CO2). Many agriculture experts consider the Haber-Bosch process for fixing nitrogen with hydrogen to produce ammonia is one of the great advances of the 20th century. Now green politicians condemn it?

In the Wall Street Journal, reporter Tunku Varadarajan writes:

“The Green Revolution of Norman Borlaug, the American agronomist who did more to feed the world than any man before or since, set Sri Lanka on the path to agricultural abundance in 1970. It was built around chemical fertilizers and crops bred to be disease-resistant. Fifty-two years later, Sri Lanka has pulled off a revolution that is “antigreen” in the modern sense, toppling its president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa. In an uprising that has its roots in Mr. Rajapaksa’s imperious decision to impose organic farming on the entire country—which led to widespread hunger after the agricultural economy collapsed—Sri Lanka’s people have wrought the first contra-organic national uprising in history.”

Mr. Rajapaksa was an American citizen until 2019, the year he was elected Sri Lanka’s president. He has now fled the country. After discussing the political turmoil that griped Sri Lanka for years reporter Varadarajan states:

On April 27, 2021—with no warning, and with no attempt to teach farmers how to cope with the change—he announced a ban on all synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Henceforth, he decreed, Sri Lankan agriculture would be 100% organic. Agronomists and other scientists warned loudly of the catastrophe that would ensue, but they were ignored. This Sri Lankan Nero listened to no one.

Except, of course, to Ms. Shiva [not identified in the article] and other woke environmentalists, who rejoiced at the epochal nature of Mr. Rajapaksa’s decision. ‘Let us all join hands with Sri Lanka,’ Ms. Shiva tweeted on June 10, 2021, ‘taking steps towards a #PoisonFree #PoisonCartelFree world for our health & the health of the planet.’ Lost in all the ideological ululation was another likely explanation for Mr. Rajapaksa’s action: So debt-ridden was Sri Lanka—to China, in particular—that he may have decided to forgo imported fertilizer and pesticide as a money-saving measure.

After discussing the collapse in rice and tea production and farmers allowing fields to go fallow, the reporter continues:

So extensive was the damage done by his organic diktat that Mr. Rajapaksa had to reverse himself by November 2021. His scientific ineptitude was now matched by his economic illiteracy. Battling to salvage his political reputation, he agreed to compensate farmers for their losses, the bill for which totaled more than the money he’d ostensibly saved the country by banning imports of fertilizer in April 2021.

Organic activist groups are still in denial. The U.K.-based Soil Association tweeted this: ‘Lots of lessons to be learnt from Sri Lanka, but ‘see, organic doesn’t work’ isn’t one of them.’ Mr. Rajapaksa, for his part, has had to pay for his hubris with his job. Had he not fled the country, it is more than likely that he would have paid for it with his life. Would that have made him a Green Martyr? We’ll never know. Sri Lanka must now turn to better ways: accountability, democracy, the rule of law and yes, modern scientific farming that can feed all of its 22 million people.

See Article # 1 and links Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

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Distorting Research: Interesting research into 700,000 years of Andean glaciers showed an oscillation in hydrology about every 23,000 years. This indicates a shift in the monsoon- driven precipitation, possibly from a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. A researcher from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory stated that the climate change must be from greenhouse gases. The reporting of the research swiftly converted the explanation as showing the effects of greenhouse gases, though no data on greenhouse gases was presented in the article on the research. However, model “experiments” were used, whatever that means. See links under Changing Climate.

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White Colonization of the Atmosphere: A UN press release Human Rights, Special Procedures press release stated:

“World faces ‘climate apartheid’ risk, 120 more million in poverty: UN expert.”

“’Even if current targets are met, tens of millions will be impoverished, leading to widespread displacement and hunger,” said the UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, Philip Alston.”

According to Our World in Data, in 2020 Total emissions equaled 34.8 billion tonnes; China emitted 10.7, India 2.4, Rest of Asia 7.2; US emitted 4.7, Rest of North America 1.0; EU emitted 2.6, and Rest of Europe 2.4. Thus, Asia emitted 20.3 billion tonnes, 58%. North America and Europe combined emitted 10.7 billion tonnes 31%.

The concern is what will happen in the future, not what happened in the past. The UN does not bother to get its numbers right. See links under Below the Bottom Line and https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON

SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. The entire Biden Administration won in 2021, so individuals in it are still eligible.

The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected]. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16 at the South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. Registration: https://aaps.wufoo.com/forms/qb79fo31o62uh1/; Hotel: https://be.synxis.com/?adult=1&arrive=2022-08-14&chain=6903&child=0&currency=USD&depart=2022-08-15&group=DOC0811&hotel=11548&level=hotel&locale=en-US&rooms=1

Number of the Week: $3 Billion per year. The opening paragraph of the Executive Summary of the draft U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031) states:

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates research across 13 Federal agencies to understand the human-caused and natural processes that influence our planet. Building on a foundation of more than $3 billion in annual investments in Federal research and development, science conducted by USGCRP agencies informs the Nation to navigate the challenges of a changing environment and identify opportunities for a more resilient future. Over more than three decades, USGCRP and its member agencies have worked together to understand the processes—particularly climate change—that are reshaping Earth’s environment and capacity to sustain life.

Thirty years with thirteen agencies now spending $3 billion per year have not figured out where the greenhouse effect occurs, much less how to measure it? The best it can do is cite the deficient reports of the IPCC, 2021?

Censorship

LinkedIn Shuts Out Truth — Again

By Gregory R. Wrightstone, CO2 Coalition, Via Real Clear Energy, July 13, 2022

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/07/13/linkedin_shuts_out_truth__again_841846.html

Team Biden, Big Tech and media want to censor climate debate

As with COVID-19, the government is looking to control narrative

By David W. Kreutzer, Washington Times, July 11, 2022

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jul/11/team-biden-big-tech-and-media-want-to-censor-clima/

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

The State of Louisiana, et al., v. Joseph R Biden, et al.

Appeal from the United States District Court for the Fifth Circuit of Louisiana

Brief of Amicus Curiae Dr. William Happer, Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, and the CO2 Coalition in Support of the plaintiff-Appellee States, June 22, 2022.

The HITRAN Database

Atomic and Molecular Physics Division, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Accessed 2022

https://hitran.org/about/

Attenborough’s “Breaking Boundaries” documentary; Distorting Science to Shill for One World Government

By Jim Steele, A Walk On the Natural Side, July 13, 2022

Text: https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2022/07/attenboroughs-breaking-boundaries.html

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8IbgqVgxP8

Europe’s Rendezvous with Destiny

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 12, 2022

Children Die When ‘Eco-Lies’ Disrupt the War Against Mosquitoes

By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, July 14, 2022

“DDT is a life saver, and any country with mosquito-borne diseases should allow its use. Swiss chemist Paul Hermann Muller was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1948 “for his discovery of the high efficiency of DDT as a contact poison against several arthropods,” including mosquitoes. Let not the lies of Rachel Carson [and the EPA] rob millions of African children of their very lives.”

Knowing the Great Barrier Reef – Two New Short Documentaries

By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 15, 2022

Dutch warming has nothing to do with CO2

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 13, 2022

Link to paper: Winds are changing: An explanation for the warming of the Netherlands

By Jippe Hoogeveen and Han Hoogeveen, International Journal of Climatology, June 17, 2022

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.7763

From the abstract: “For each day from January 1, 1836, onwards, we have determined the corresponding weather pattern on basis of the weather maps from Reanalysis archives at wettercentrale.de. Using a statistical test, we can see that a shift has occurred in the weather patterns, which has resulted in a significant increase in airflow coming from warmer directions.”

The Global Warming Golden Goose

By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, July 12, 2022

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/07/the_global_warming_golden_goose_.html

“I don’t see an end to junk science because there’s too much money in it and the credible institutions that could puncture it lack objectivity and expertise. The ideological bias of the mainstream media attracts them to any crackpot theory that calls for more government money and power mobilized to solve the “problem.” For them the global warming narrative is wonderful because it provides an excuse for the government to regulate nearly everything.”

Challenging the Orthodoxy – RIP

RIP – Dr. Patrick Michaels

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 16, 2022

Defending the Orthodoxy

White House Office of Science & Technology Policy and U.S. Global Change Research Program Request Comment on Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022–2031

OSTP Blog, June 6, 2022

https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2022/06/06/white-house-office-of-science-technology-policy-and-u-s-global-change-research-program-request-comment-on-draft-decadal-strategic-plan-2022-2031/

Call for Public Comment on the Draft U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/05/26/2022-11108/call-for-public-comment-on-the-draft-us-global-change-research-program-usgcrp-decadal-strategic-plan

If you want to know how Sri Lanka’s president destroyed his country, read his COP26 speech

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 11, 2022



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