Hurricane season in the Atlantic end this week is one of the most destructive on record. Hurricane Ian, which made landfall in the southeastern United States in September, was the worst hurricane of the season and one of the country’s deadliest hurricanes in recent decades. It was also one of the most expensive in US history, causing estimated $67 billion in privately insured property damage across five states.
Ian is part of the trend. Hurricanes tend to be one of the most damaging forms of weather extremes, the costs of which are rising enormously. Hurricanes that cause more than $1 billion in damage have nearly doubled since the 1980s. During the same period, the total cost of damage, adjusted for inflation, has increased by a much larger amount – more eleven times:
Climate change has increased the likelihood of intense storms and, in some cases, their devastating effects. But there’s a bigger culprit behind the rising cost of damage, experts say: Americans flock to coastal areas. This migration has increased the number of homes, businesses and other buildings in danger.
As our colleague Christopher Flavelle, who is in charge of climate affairs, put it: “Stronger storms plus more development in coastal areas will cause more damage.” Today’s newsletter will focus on how the evolving part of that equation contributes to expensive hurricanes.
More people, more damage
Stephen Strader, who studies the geography of disasters at Villanova University, calls the growing development in hurricane-prone areas “enlarge the bull’s eye effect.” As the target — the number of people, homes and businesses in the vulnerable area — increases, so does the likelihood of the storm causing costly damage. “There’s more to these storms than ever before,” he said.
See how many homes are in southwest Florida, where Hurricane Ian made landfall this year. These maps show how housing density increased as population increased from 1980 to 2020:
The Houston area shows a similar trend. The region added nearly 1.3 million homes between 1980 and 2020, as these maps show:
In 2017, Hurricane Harvey dragged through the Houston area for several days, reducing more than 50 inches of rain in some places. The last storm has to pay the price estimated 149 billion USD — more, in inflation-adjusted dollars, than any other hurricane since 1980 other than Katrina in 2005.
Ongoing real estate development in parts of the United States most at risk of hurricane damage also creates an additional risk, destroying natural barriers that can help protect coastal areas. out of the storm. In Florida, “tough” riparian properties have replaced “sponge-like” wetlands and mangroves that are better able to absorb storm surge and rain, such as Strader explained.
What’s next?
Alleviating the problem of multibillion-dollar extreme weather events will require addressing both parts of Christopher’s storm damage equation. Reducing carbon emissions and slowing global warming can reduce the likelihood of severe storms and other costly climate disasters such as wildfires and droughts.
One option to reduce property damage, experts say, is to strengthen building codes. Florida did so after Hurricane Andrew wreaked havoc in 1992, requiring the construction of new structures to better withstand high winds. Infrastructure upgrades — like seawalls to block storm surge or pumps to remove stormwater faster — can also help fight storms, but only in moderation.
Some experts have proposed a controversial goal: get people to live elsewhere. The most aggressive attempt to convince Americans to leave hurricane-threatened areas may be a new program that sets federal flood insurance pricing according to climate risksignificantly increase costs for people living in vulnerable places.
But relocation is a hard sell. Americans have flocked to Florida’s picturesque shores, despite its risks. “People like to live somewhere beautiful,” says Christopher.
There are also political challenges. Florida’s cities and towns rely heavily on property tax revenue, making state and local officials reluctant to reduce density or encourage relocation. They may also count on the federal government to fund recovery efforts, leaving them less motivated to mitigate future damage.
“More and more people are realizing that the current system that essentially allows and subsidizes construction in risky areas no longer makes sense,” Christopher said. “However, the government is still struggling to translate that focus into policy changes that will make a lot of difference.”
Related: Wirecutter has advice on how to make your home better flood resistance.
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The British magazine Sight and Sound surveys critics, scholars, curators and others every 10 years, and the results list is widely respected. “Citizen Kane” topped this list for five decades, before Alfred Hitchcock’s “Vertigo” replaced it in 2012.
Now, Akerman has ousted Hitchcock, becoming the first female director to top the list. Critics of the Times Manohla Dargis wrote in 2015. It follows a widow as she performs household chores, often in real time, across extended scenes. Far from dull, Dargis writes, the film “engraves you with its blunt composition” and “a sense of chilling terror”.
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