IBHOF boxing and gambling expert Graham Houston finds betting value during a busy weekend of boxing with three key world title clashes – George Kambosos vs. Devin Haney, Kenichi Ogawa vs. Joe Coordinator and Stephen Fulton vs. Danny Roman.
Three big fights to look forward to on Saturday night – who could ask for more? Let’s take a look at what we’ve got and see if we can find a betting angle.
Joe Cordina massively promoted his class when he faced Kenichi Ogawa for the Japanese boxer’s 130lbs IBF title in Cardiff on Saturday.
Coordination is favorite (8/15 at Betfred). He is undefeated, rated at elite level as an amateur (European Championship gold medalist, GB Olympic representative) and of course, he has the home advantage.
There is no doubt that Cordina has skill but perhaps not too much power, although, that said, he has stopped six of his first seven pro opponents and he scored a 53-second KO against Chicago boxer Joshuah Hernandez last August. And he completely leveled Hernandez with a massive right hand. So the Cordina is not exactly a dough press.
It’s been a very tough fight for Cordina, no doubt, but he’s 30 years old and it’s now or never. His trainer, Tony Sims, feels Cordina is ready. Promoter Eddie Hearn is putting his faith in Cordina but believes we’ll see something special from “Welsh Wizard” on Saturday. Hearn even believes that Cordina can stop Ogawa.
What about Ogawa? We know he’s strong and capable. He can punch and seems to have a great chin. Ogawa didn’t stop when it made a unanimous decision against Azinga Fuzile last November to win the IBF title. He knocked Fuzile down in the 5th round and almost stopped in the final round, when he was knocked down twice by the South African left hand.
However, Fuzile suffered most were some nasty head bumps and he had both eyes amputated due to the impact. Ogawa seems to be the better fighter, but the head-to-head collisions certainly don’t help Fuzile.
And while Ogawa turned out pretty well against Fuzile, he had a few close fights back home in Japan. The Tevin Farmer fight (when Ogawa’s decisive victory was voided due to a positive steroid test) could have gone one of two ways. It comes in at 114-114 in “consensus” scoring, where at least two of the three judges agree on a round. So it’s not as if Ogawa is some kind of monster. He is 34 years old. And while he won Las Vegas and New York in two matches for the IBF title, respectively, Ogawa will never experience an atmosphere like the one he will experience in Cardiff.
However, if Cordina wins this fight, he will have to produce the kind of boxing and fighting that he has yet to reveal. He will have to take it to the next level. Can he do it? We do not know.
Cordina was skilled at winning rounds against Ogawa, but could he consistently win rounds against such a resilient and resilient opponent? Is he powerful enough to earn Ogawa’s respect?
These are the things we don’t know and make betting on the war a risky proposition.
If you think Cordina can get the job done, the fare isn’t too bad either. Decision coordination at 5/6 (-120) may be eye-catching but it seems a bit too obvious. Cordina by KO / TKO at 5/2 (+250) isn’t overly generous but might appeal to those who believe this is the night Cordina will bring it all together and create the performance of his life.
Meanwhile, the undefeated lightweight champions meet in Melbourne on Saturday, and like Joe Cordina, Australia’s George Kambosos Jr has the home field advantage – and then some. Kambosos will enjoy the passionate support of more than 50,000 fans at Marvel Stadium for his fight with Devin Haney. However, the American guest appeared calm and composed and was not at all confused by the incident.
We had some last-minute drama, with the Kambosos being underweight on the first try and Haney’s father and trainer, Bill Haney, getting approval at the 11th hour to get a visa for his son in Melbourne.
Kambosos is a brave, hardworking fighter and he coordinates his shots well. He is very good at lowering his right arm towards his body. Haney, however, simply looks more skilled, with sleeker moves and better bumps. Kambosos had a great performance to beat Teo Lopez. But it seems fair to say that Lopez is probably not at his best due to the problems in his family life. And Lopez was there to be attacked that night, while Haney was evasive.
Haney dominated most of his matches. He struggled in the last four rounds against Jorge Linares, that’s right, and he wobbled in that fight. But in the first eight innings, Haney boxed beautifully against Linares. And Haney looked sharp and powerful in the final battle when taking down the always tough Jo Jo Diaz.
I like Haney here. His 8/13 (-160) price at Betfred isn’t too bad. He looks great on the scale; Kambosos not so much. Location should be a concern for Haney supporters, but I don’t think we’ll see the decision to go home with the world watching.
Saturday’s third big fight takes place in the Midwest US state of Minnesota, with Stephen Fulton undefeated to defend his 122lbs title against the tenacious and talented Danny Roman. Fulton is a high priced favorite, with Betfred offering 1/6 (-600). The odds seem a bit disrespectful to Roman, who is a brilliant technician, but Fulton looks like an exceptional talent. Fulton is smart, agile and adaptable – he can box at long range or hit close.
The decision Fulton looks like the likely outcome but the price 4/9 (-225) is lower. The odds for Roman 4/1 (+400) are attractive. In interviews, Fulton mentioned the challenges of combat training during the holy month of Ramadan, when believers follow a vegetarian diet.
If Fulton wasn’t at his best, there could be problems. Roman has a great engine and he becomes strong in the following rounds. I think Fulton will be able to hold off Roman, but to me, there’s no point here unless you feel like you’re going to have to get upset and head into the extra money available on Roman.
Main image: George Kambosos (left) and Devin Haney (right) prepare for battle this weekend. Photo: Mikey Williams / Top Rank.
