By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Saturday is arguably the biggest race day of the year at the Tampa Bay Downs. Five shares (four of which have been classified) worth a total of $1 million are on the agenda, led by the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby .
Let’s check out two of the classified holdings and see if we can uncover some live long shots:
Challenger S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs
A solid field has gathered for the 1/16-mile Challenger, which has steadily increased and stood out over the past decade. Back in 2012, future Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Fort Larned took the top honors. In the years since, classified stake winners such as Stanford, War Story, Flameaway, and Last Judgment have all visited the Challenger winner’s circle.
The morning line favorites for the 2022 Challenger are #4 Dynamic one (5-2) and #3 Greatest Honor (3-1), both were second-year runners-up last season. Dynamic One won Curlin S., second in the Wood Memorial 2nd place and contested the Kentucky Derby (G1), while Greatest Honor won Holy Bull S. (G3) and Fountain of Youth S. (G2) in winter. at Gulfstream Park.
The problem is that Dynamic One and Greatest Honor are both returning from long layoffs. Greatest Honor hasn’t run since finishing third in the Florida Derby on March 27 (G1), while Dynamic One has been unranked since finishing last of seven in the Travers S. (G1) August 28. The fact is that Dynamic One and Greatest Honor are late runners without much tactical speed, and it’s tempting to go up against both on Saturday.
Instead, I will support the rear #9 Cody’s Wish (8-1). As Curlin’s 4-year-old son, a two-time Horse of the Year winner in the Dance Card Awards, Cody’s Wish has always been the bloodline of an elite racehorse, and the promising form he displayed at Churchill Downs last fall shows that he is gradually handing over his noble lineage.
Cody’s Wish comes in for the first time in the one-mile women’s special weight class, as he pounced right from speed to win by two seconds in a fiery time of 1:33.88. His times compare favorably to the 1:33.85 ratio required by older men to complete Ack Ack S. (G3) by late afternoon.
Cody’s Wish then won the one-mile race at Churchill Downs, on both occasions finishing quickly to crown a comfortable victory. Cody’s Wish’s three Churchill victories all happened in one turn, but his pedigree suggests that lasting about two turns for the Challenger wouldn’t be an obstacle – in fact, Cody’s Wish could be Enjoy the configuration.
The fact Cody’s Wish hasn’t run since Nov. 28 is a question mark, but he did hit a couple of workouts at Payson Park, and his 8-1 morning odds (if they hold the same) ) attractive enough to offset the risk. I’m optimistic Cody’s Wish can grow into a graded stakes winner this year — maybe even a Grade 1 winner — and I’m excited to see how he performs on Saturday. .
Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs
I’ll be the first to admit it #4 The Classic Way (8-5) was a formidable favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby. Don’t like what? Giant’s Causeway’s son finished second in Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and third in Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) as a juvenile, then started 2022 with a landslide victory in Sam F. Davis S. (G3) on the same track and distance as the Tampa Bay Derby.
But Sam F. Davis is a tale of two trips. While the Classic Causeway enjoys an unhindered savings journey on the front end, runner-up # 9 Ships (5-1) had a much harder time. After being one step behind, Shipsational was immediately knocked behind his opponents and forced to adopt a rallying tactic — a stark contrast to the racing style he used to win Sleepy Hollow. S. a mile in Belmont Park last fall.
Despite this setback, Shipsational never gave up. He’s still in sixth place with 1/8 of a mile left, but a cheeky rally put him in second, beaten by Classic Causeway by 3 3/4 length while cutting into the bottom margin. people’s house.
Shipsational ships have been training intensively at the Tampa Bay Downs since the days of Sam F. Davis, with six lasting in a 1:13 3/5 bullet and four lasting in a: 47 3/5 bullet. If he breaks cleanly on Saturday and returns to his preset race strategy, I believe Shipsational can turn the tables on the Classic Causeway and open a surprise in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like on Saturday night at Tampa Bay Downs?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers the Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
