The EPA on Wednesday proposed a new phase of stricter emissions standards for vehicle models between 2027 and 2032, which would give electric vehicle sales a boost — but isn’t technically required. .
Recommended standards set a fleet-average emissions target of 82 grams of CO2 per mile by the 2032 model year, a 56% reduction in emissions compared to existing standards in effect through the 2026 model year. This target will require up to 67% of EV sales by the 2032 model year, the EPA predicts.
Electric vehicle sales numbers are not a mandate, as California is set for 2035, but rather the most likely path to meeting more stringent emissions targets. According to the EPA, manufacturers can still produce new vehicles with internal combustion engines and strive to meet stricter standards by improving their performance. That means the scenario in which automakers sell most electric vehicles by the 2032 model year will not be in place.
The EPA also doesn’t seem ready to promote more efficient electric vehiclestreat all “exhaust” zero-emission vehicles the same.
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That scenario represents a very sharp acceleration from what the Biden administration has put out through the 2026 model year. The recently announced EPA rules aim to only 8% of EV sales then, still more than 2022, when electric vehicles account for 5.8% of US new car sales. In terms of real-world predicted outcomes, the proposed 2027-2032 rules are also more ambitious than President Biden’s 2021 executive order calling for 50% of EV sales by 2030.
According to the EPA, the proposed standards would avoid 7.3 billion tons of CO2 by 2055 through a fleet of cleaner ships—the equivalent of removing four years’ worth of emissions from the entire transportation sector. transportation of the United States. That would save lives through lower levels of particulate matter that can lead to a host of health problems and premature death.
However, the goals bring federal emissions standards closer to California’s. The state is currently find a way to close the sale of most internal combustion vehicles by 2035, giving way to plug-in hybrids that meet certain emissions and electric range targets.
The proposal also includes new emissions standards for midsize commercial vehicles that are expected to lead to EV sales up to 46 percent by 2032. EPA is targeting a fleet-wide average is 275 grams of CO2 per mile for 2032 midsize vehicles, down 44% from 2026. Proposed standards for heavy trucks could also lead to 35% of new short-haul tractors and 25% of new long-distance tractors will become electric by 2032.
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The EPA claims these proposals would avoid nearly 10 billion tons of CO2 emissions, or more than twice the total U.S. CO2 emissions by 2022. It would also save the average consumer $12,000 in costs. ownership costs over the life of an automobile, the agency claims.
However, the cost argument may not convince consumers. A poll released this week by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs and the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute (EPIC) found that most Americans aren’t ready to buy an electric vehicle yet. , in part because consumers tend to consider a purchase. The price of a new car is much more than fuel economy and maintenance. And while most respondents favor EV incentives like tax credits, fewer supported emissions standards force more EV sales.
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The proposed standards could become an issue in the 2024 presidential election and beyond. Even if Biden is re-elected, the next phase of this emissions rule will last well after the end of his second term. A future administration may seek to rescind them, as was the case with the Trump administration with its proposed rules under President Obama—though it won’t be until March 2020 that the new rules will be enacted. . Lower fuel economy goals come into effect in 2021.
Automakers’ reactions over the next few years will be another thing to watch. Recently seven Automakers support California In a challenge to its emissions regulator, the agency allowed the state to ban the sale of gasoline-powered cars by 2035. But General Motors, Toyota, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles predecessor Stellantis ( FCA) Join the Trump Administration against that government.
