The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 continues with four second legs on Tuesday and Wednesday, after which the quarter-final draw will take place.
With all that in mind, let’s get to this week’s games. As always, keep in mind that these bets are only for the outcome at the end of the regulation.
Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Tuesday
Porto Football Club (+170), Lien Milan (+160), Draw (+230)
(Inter lead the total score 1-0)
Inter Milan won the first match with a score of 1-0 and was rated a bit higher than Porto. Who do you see winning this match and who do you see advancing to the quarterfinals?
Paul Carre: In the first leg, Porto had more chances than Inter (1.7 expected goals compared to Inter’s 0.7) until OtavioRed card in the 78th minute His absence from this game made me a little hesitant to choose Porto, but the lack of stability lasted the whole season of Inter and Porto’s home strength (14 wins and 3 games). lost this season) was enough to convince me. Porto beat both Atlético Madrid And Bayer Leverkusen at home in the group stage, and I think they can do it again. I will take Porto to win in 90 minutes (+170)And I don’t hate Porto moving on (+275) or.
Man City (-270), Leipzig (+700), Draw (+380)
(Draw 1-1)
The first leg is 1-1, but Man City is rated higher here than Leipzig. Do you see them advocating that or is it a huge disappointment in the store?
Carr: RB Leipzig attack Man City relatively well in the first leg, conceding 12 shots and 1.2 goals conceded, both of which are Man City’s fewest goals in a game this season. Leipzig also has only 2 defeats after 24 matches since October, and both losses are 1 goal apart, so Leipzig +1.5 (-125) is quite attractive. However, top scorer Christopher Nkuku (thigh) and defensive midfielder Xaver Schlager (ankle) are unable to play in this second leg, making it difficult for Leipzig to keep up with Man City or hold back Pep Guardiola’s army. City’s home games mean goalscoring all season, with 16 of the 20 games featuring at least three goals and dozens of those with four or more goals. I will hit more than 3 goals with even money.
Wednesday
Naples (-210), Frankfurt (+575), Draw (+325)
Frankfurt are chasing two goals here with Napoli over the favorites 2-1 in the second leg. Who do you like here?
Carr: Napoli have never reached the quarter-finals of the European Cup, but they are valued at -15000 to do so at the moment. Napoli dominated the first leg with 70% possession, taking the lead Eintracht Frankfurt 18-5, with 2.9 goals expected compared to Frankfurt’s 0.5. I see no reason for this second leg to be any different, especially with Frankfurt’s top scorer, Randal Kolo Muani, suspended after a red card in the first leg. Napoli will have their full squad, having won 14 of their 17 home games this season, with a scoring advantage in all 17. Of course, I want to get a better price, but even the attractive -210 number is not enough to stop me from playing Napoli to win this game and go straight to the quarterfinals.
Real Madrid (+130), Liverpool (+180), Draw (+270)
(Real Madrid lead 5-2)
The defending champions won the first leg of the 2022 Finals rematch 5-2. How do you see turn 2 going with such a large total lead?
Carr: In the Champions League era, no team has progressed after conceding three goals in the first leg at home. Liverpool probably won’t be the first club to do so, as Real Madrid will go through even if they lose by two goals. Therefore, anything seems possible in this match, just like the first leg. I’m staying away from a result, but Real Madrid will once again have plenty of chances as Liverpool try to find a goal. Real Madrid thrive on the counter-attack and they have scored at least 2 goals in 12 of 17 home games this season, with at least 2.0 goals expected in 10 of them. Combine that with a Liverpool that still has offensive firepower, and I will play more than 3 tables at -110.
Former ESPN Senior Researcher Paul Carr is TruMedia’s chief content officer.
