Automakers expect electric vehicles to account for more than half of the market by 2030
DETROIT – Automotive industry executives expect tram will only take up more than half new vehicle sales in the United States and China by 2030 and be able to do so without receiving government subsidies, according to a new survey by accounting and consulting firm KPMG.
But combustion vehicles, including crossbred, is expected to hold a substantial share across most major vehicle markets for many years to come, according to KPMG’s latest annual survey of 1,000 auto industry executives.
The speed with which automakers can phase out combustion engines and the amount of carbon dioxide they emit is a key issue for the global auto industry. Earlier this month, a group of automakers and countries signed a statement calling for phasing out incineration vehicles globally by 2040and by 2035 in richer countries.
But the world’s two largest automakers by sales, Volkswagen and Toyota, and three of the world’s largest car buyers – China, the United States and Germany – have not registered.
KPMG’s survey of auto industry executives found that they believe electric vehicles will account for 52% of sales by 2030 in the United States, China and the United States. Japan, with lower percentages for Western Europe, Brazil and India. But behind those aggregated forecasts, industry executives have different views.
As for China, some auto industry executives expect electric vehicle sales by 2030 to be less than 20% of the market, while others believe the world’s largest market has maybe 80% at the time.
So far, worldwide sales of electric vehicles have been driven by government subsidies. But 77% of respondents to KPMG’s survey said electric vehicles could be mass-adopted within 10 years without government support such as the battery costs are reduced to par with gasoline-powered engines. However, 91% of auto executives said they support government subsidies.
The wide-ranging survey also found that 75% of executives surveyed expect their companies to sell “non-core” assets in the coming years as they reassess which lines of business will be possible as more and more new vehicles switch to battery-electric technology.
“There will be a lot of mergers and acquisitions,” said Gary Silberg, global head of automotive at KPMG.
Despite supply chain disruptions and pandemics over the past year, about 53% of executives surveyed said they were confident the industry could achieve profitable growth over the next five years.
Executives are most optimistic in the United States and China, most pessimistic in France, the survey found.
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