As the cost of going home rises, no one is going to give up fossil fuels – Are you fed up with that?
As noted in mine Posted last Sunday, there is no amount of fake cheerful talk in the so-called “Glasgow Climate Pact” can obscure the obvious fact that no one agrees with anything. To read the text of the “treaty,” everyone claims to think the whole “decarbonization” to “save the planet” thing is real. We’re all going to do something really, really important, but it’ll be next year, or maybe the year after that. And in the meantime, no one has made any serious efforts remotely to solve this problem. Are we talking about a ten percent increase in energy costs for this decarbonization project, or will it double, or possibly triple – or maybe even a multiplication by ten?
With tens of trillions of dollars at stake in the world economy, let alone most of humanity at risk of energy poverty, you’d think we’d be a long way off from studying the engineering in detail. about what the world of decarbonizing energy would look like and exactly how much it would cost. But it’s quite the opposite. Everywhere – or at least everywhere in Western countries – government agencies with degrees in English or Political Science (or possibly Gender Studies) issue decrees that the amount of gas carbon emissions will fall “50% by 2030” or “90% by 2050”, without any knowledge or understanding of how that can be accomplished.
So when the cost of trying to “switch” away from fossil fuels starts to creep home, will anyone actually take the project on? I think the chance of that is zero. China and India show how it works. Judging by their actions (rather than their words), they have long realized that solar and wind energy cannot succeed in running a modern economy, so they talking empty words to appease Western zealots, making unfulfilled promises that would come only after everyone was dead, and going ahead with the massive development of coal power. And even more remarkable are recent developments in Western jurisdictions. When the first hint emerged that fossil fuel restrictions would increase costs large enough to be noticed by a significant number of voters, even the bluest U.S. states took about three minutes to complete. reneged on their “decarbonization” promise.
For the latest from India check out this from Reuters headlined today “India’s Jindal plans to start construction of the Botswana coal mine in 2022.” First, recall that at COP26 that just ended in Glasgow, India is said to be “committed” to achieve “zero” carbon emissions by 2070. You would not be wrong to infer that 2070 is chosen as the safe year after all current world leaders have at least retired and are very may be long dead. On the other hand, today’s Reuters report shows the here and now:
Jindal Steel & Power Limited of India. . . will begin construction of a coal mine at the Mmamabula coal mines in southeastern Botswana in 2022, to supply the export market and a planned coal power plant, a company official said. The Indian industrial giant has set a target that the mine will produce 4.5 million tonnes of coal per year.
It’s a big project, but only a small fraction of Botswana, Africa’s proven coal resources:
Despite the global shift away from coal, Botswana is still driving the development of coal resources estimated at 212 billion tons.
To put this in context, USA is currently producing also less than 1 billion tons of coal per year.
Or consider Japan. With oil prices currently skyrocketing, you might think that a westernized country like Japan would welcome cost increases as a convenient means of encouraging people to use less. But the price increase was big enough for people to notice, and when that happened, politicians didn’t want to force people to become more expensive. Based on Japan Times November 17, year The Japanese government is rolling out plans to provide subsidies to oil wholesalers to keep retail prices from going higher:
Industry Minister Koichi Hagiuda said the government plans to provide subsidies to oil wholesalers if domestic gasoline prices exceed certain levels. The financial support is aimed at encouraging petrol and oil distributors to limit wholesale prices to prevent retail gasoline prices from rising excessively amid a sharp increase in crude oil prices. The aid program is unprecedented in Japan, according to government officials.
But perhaps most notable is what has happened in recent days in some of the greenest US jurisdictions. In 2010, about twelve Northeastern states, plus the District of Columbia, entered into a sort of agreement to agree to create something called “Transport and Climate Initiative.” The language of the official document is about “reducing greenhouse gas emissions”; but in practice this is the first scheme intended as a limited commercial scheme, which will use a limited and dwindling supply of permits to gradually force the price of transportation fuels (mostly gasoline), and thus forcing people to use them less. Signatories to the original document included all of New England and the Mid-Atlantic.
NS The Boston Herald had an episode yesterday (November 18) summary of the TCI program and its current status. First, about the purpose of the program and how it will work:
TCI will cap carbon emissions by forcing fuel companies to exceed the limit to buy additional permits and invest the proceeds in green transport and climate-resilient infrastructure. It aims to reduce vehicle emissions by 26% by 2032.
Well, the price of gas right now is about 50% increase since President Biden took office in January 2021. You can probably think that the TCI countries will not be able to contain their excitement and will continue to raise prices and force consumption to decline rapidly. But actually the opposite is happening. First of all, only a handful of the original twelve states plus DC advance to join the compact group:
Initially, 12 states plus the District of Columbia were negotiating to join the deal, but ultimately only Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and DC signed a memorandum of understanding in December 2020.
And now, with gas prices rising rapidly, what politician wants to be seen as forcing them to go even higher? So even some of the dark green states that joined the TCI are now heading towards exiting. The Herald reported that Connecticut withdrew from the attack on Tuesday (November 16); and yesterday (November 18) Massachusetts followed:
Governor Charlie Baker has adopted a regional climate initiative that could cap emissions from tailpipes and is expected to raise gas prices at a time of record inflation, acknowledging the multi-state agreement “no longer the best solution”. He endorsed the Transportation and Climate Initiative just days after Connecticut did.
A Massachusetts group called the Mass Fiscal Alliance correctly called it:
“TCI is a regressive gas tax plan that will hurt the most (the middle class and the working poor. It’s great news to see that Massachusetts families won’t be forced to endure these hardships). economic hardship that TCI will impose on them,” [Mass Fiscal Alliance] spokesman, Paul Diego Craney.
Meanwhile, New York went ahead with its ignorant officials issuing ordinances to end fossil fuel use over the next few years. At this point, voters remain largely unaware of what’s to come.
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