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New Study Finds Climate Change Could Cause The Next Pandemic – Could Boom For That?



Peer-reviewed publications

GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER

Climate change will promote the sharing of new viruses among mammalian species.
IMAGE: IN 2070, POPULATION CENTERS IN AFRICA, SOUTH CHINA, INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA WILL BE ATTRACTIVE WITH CURRENT VIRAL TRANSMISSION PROJECTS AT WILDLIFE. see more
CREDIT: CREDIT: COLIN CARLSON / GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY

WASHINGTON – As the earth’s climate continues to warm, researchers predict wildlife species will be forced to relocate habitats – potentially to areas with large populations – significantly increasing the risk of infection. virus to humans and possibly lead to the next pandemic.

The link between climate change and virus transmission was described by an international research team led by scientists at Georgetown University and published April 28 in the journal Nature. Nature (“Climate change increases risk of virus transmission between species” DOI 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w).

In their study, the scientists conducted the first comprehensive assessment of how climate change is reshaping mammals globally. The work focuses on geographic range change — the journeys that species will make as they follow their habitat to new areas. When they encountered other mammals for the first time, the study expected them to share thousands of viruses.

These changes, they say, provide a greater chance for viruses like Ebola or coronavirus to emerge in new areas, making them harder to track and entering new types of animals, making it easier for viruses to spread. easily jumps over a species of “stepping stone” on humans.

The study’s lead author Colin Carlson, PhD, an assistant research professor in the Center for Health Sciences and Global Security at Georgetown University Medical Center, said: “The closest analogy is really are the risks we see in the wildlife trade. “We are worried about the market because the grouping of unhealthy animals together in an unnatural way creates an opportunity for this step-by-step emergence process – in the same way that SARS moved from bats to civets, then plow people. But the market is not special anymore; in a changing climate, that kind of process will become a reality in nature everywhere. “

The worry is that animal habitats will move disproportionately in places similar to human settlements, creating new hotspots of transmission risk. Much of this process could have been done in today’s 1.2°C warmer world, and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may not have prevented these events.

An additional important finding is the impact of increased temperatures on bats, which account for most of the new transmission shares. Their ability to fly will allow them to travel long distances and share the most viruses. Because of their central role in the emergence of the virus, the greatest impacts are projected to be in Southeast Asia, a global hotspot for bat diversity.

“At every step, our simulations took us by surprise,” says Carlson. We spent years re-examining those results, with different data and different assumptions, but the models always led us to these conclusions. It’s a really great example of how well we can predict the future if we try. “

As viruses begin to move between host species at an unprecedented rate, the authors say the impacts on conservation and human health could be staggering.

“This mechanism adds another layer of how climate change will threaten human and animal health,” said study co-author Gregory Albery, a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Science and Technology. Biology at Georgetown College of Arts and Sciences.

“It is not clear exactly how these new viruses might affect the species involved, but it is likely that many of them will lead to new conservation risks and promote the emergence of new waves. new outbreaks in humans.”

Overall, the study shows that climate change will become the single biggest upstream risk factor for disease occurrence — beyond emerging issues like deforestation, wildlife trade and agriculture. industry. The solution, the authors say, is to combine wildlife disease surveillance with real-time studies of environmental change.

“When a tailless bat in Brazil reaches Appalachia, we should invest in knowing what virus is being tagged,” says Carlson. “Trying to detect these server hops in real time is the only way we can prevent this from leading to more spillovers and more pandemics.”

“We are closer than ever to predicting and preventing the next pandemic,” said Carlson. “This is a big step forward for prediction — now we have to start working on the harder part of the problem.”

“The COVID-19 pandemic, and the previous spread of SARS, Ebola and Zika, show how a virus that jumped from animals to humans can have major effects. Sam Scheiner, program director of the US National Science Foundation (NSF), which funded the study, to predict their jump to humans, we need to know about their spread to other species. other animals. “This study shows how animal movements and interactions caused by a warming climate can increase the number of viruses that jump between species.”

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Additional study authors also include collaborators from the University of Connecticut (Cory Merow), Pacific Lutheran University (Evan Eskew), University of Cape Town (Christopher Trisos), and EcoHealth Alliance (Noam Ross, Kevin Olival ).

The authors report no personal financial interests associated with the study.

The described study was partially supported by the National Science Foundation’s (BII) Institute for Biological Integration (BII 2021909). Virus emergence research initiative (Verena). Verena, co-founded by Carlson and Albery, manages the largest open data ecosystem in the virus ecosystem and builds tools to help predict which viruses might infect humans and which animals to feed. them and where they might appear someday. NSF BII grants support diverse research groups and collaboratively investigate questions spanning many fields within and beyond biology.

Additional funding was provided by the NSF grant DBI-1639145, the USAID PREDICT program on Emerging Pandemic Threats, the Institut de Valorisation des Données, the National Center for Socio-Environmental Integration. and the Georgetown Environment Initiative.

About Georgetown University Medical Center
As a leading science and health center, Georgetown University Medical Center offers, in an integrated way, excellence in education – training doctors, nurses, medical managers and other medical professionals, as well as biomedical scientists – and cutting-edge professionals interdisciplinary research collaborationOur Advanced basic science and translational biomedical research capacity to improve human health. Patient care, clinical research, and education are conducted with our academic health system partner, MedStar Health. GUMC’s mission is carried out with a focus on social justice and a dedication to Catholic, Jesuit principle of personal cura – or “take care of the whole person.” GUMC is comprised of the School of Medicine, the School of Nursing & Health Research, the Graduate School of Biomedical Education, and the Georgetown Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center. Designated a doctoral university with “very high research activity” by the Carnegie Foundation, Georgetown is home to a Clinical and Translational Science Award from the National Institutes of Health and the Comprehensive Cancer Center from the National Cancer Institute. National letter. Connect with GUMC on Facebook (Facebook.com/GUMCUpdate) and on Twitter (@gumedcenter).


JOURNEYS

Nature

DOI

10.1038 / s41586-022-04788-w

RESEARCH METHODS

Simulation / computational modeling

RESEARCH SUBJECTS

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Climate change increases the risk of virus transmission between species

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

April 28, 2022

REPORT REPORT

The authors report no personal financial interests associated with the study.



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