By Noel Michaels
The Large A is again in motion!
Aqueduct Racetrack is up and working with a 15-day fall meet, with among the higher racing round within the weeks following the Breeders’ Cup.
The quick meet runs 4 days per week, Thursday-Sunday via Dec. 5. Then the winter meet opens on the Large A with out turf racing and continues via late March.
The autumn met differs from the winter meet as a result of there’s turf racing – numerous turf racing. Aqueduct options two grass programs, and the surfaces will probably be used to their fullest capability if climate permits.
There’s additionally stakes races in the course of the meet. Significant stakes are sparse in New York for a lot of December-February, however the first few weeks function 21 stakes – 9 graded — via Dec. 5.
Thanksgiving weekend will probably be crammed with 10 stakes races Friday-Sunday. The most important day of the meet is the ultimate day, Dec. 4., headlined by the $750,000 Cigar Mile (G1). The remainder of the cardboard consists of the Go For Wand Handicap (G3) and a pair of 2-year-old stakes, the Demoiselle (G2) and the Remsen (G2), each at 1 1/8 miles.
Speaking of the 1 1/8-mile distance, it is surprisingly rarely-used these days at Aqueduct. Due to the principle monitor circumference, filth route races are run largely round one flip. No races might be carded at 1 1/16 miles or 1 mile, 70 yards. Virtually all Aqueduct routes will probably be one-turn miles (there will probably be just a few 1 1/8-mile races, plus a smattering of longer occasions in the course of the meets). There are so few two-turn races run at Aqueduct, that they’re a digital non-factor for handicappers all through the season.
Picture courtesy of Nyra.com
4 years of racing on the new Aqueduct are already within the books for the reason that finish of the internal monitor (it was changed by a second turf course), we’ve got a stable assortment of stats to assist us handicap the subsequent six months. The principle monitor has a limestone base as a substitute of clay, enabling Aqueduct to conduct racing in freezing temperatures. Not like the previous internal monitor, races at 6 ½ furlongs and seven furlongs and one-turn miles are actually run all winter, not simply within the fall, and as a handicapper you possibly can largely focus on one-turn racing, similar to at Belmont.
The Aqueduct important monitor largely has performed pretty to all working types – a far cry from the previous Aqueduct internal monitor that often favored pace. Now pace horses seem to don’t have any actual benefit in opposition to pressers, stalkers, or closers primarily based solely on their working type. If something, off-the-pace runners may actually have a slight edge as a result of Aqueduct appears to have fewer wire-to-wire winners than the opposite important tracks on the New York circuit.
Aqueduct’s important monitor does typically present itself to be on the mercy of anti-inside monitor biases. The general prevailing profile of the Aqueduct important monitor typically performs in opposition to inside paths, so it’s best to issue this into your handicapping because the Aqueduct meet begins.
The handicapping angle you possibly can take is to search for horses exiting sub-par efforts with inside journeys of their latest Large A begins. Horses that misplaced with inside journeys of their final outing could also be price upgrading subsequent outing. In different phrases, wager again horses exiting inside journeys, and wager in opposition to horses exiting good outdoors journeys of their final begins.
Interestingly, the slow rail on the Aqueduct important monitor doesn’t at all times have an effect on put up place statistics, primarily as a result of area sizes are comparatively small and jockeys can often work out off-the-rail journeys even when they draw put up 1 or 2. The jockeys all know to remain off the within for probably the most half, so the put up place statistics largely are unaffected. We are going to see if this development continues once more this season.
On the turf, there are a few attention-grabbing put up place angles to report at Aqueduct. In routes courting again to the opening of the brand new turf structure at Aqueduct, put up positions have been primarily truthful all the way in which on out to put up 9. Every little thing outdoors of that, nonetheless, is terrible. Turf horses breaking from posts 10-11-12 throughout a three-year span went a mixed 5-for-155 for a horrible 2.5% win fee. In turf sprints, Aqueduct doesn’t play like Belmont and Saratoga which each are inclined to favor center and out of doors horses in turf sprints. Within the Large A’s turf sprints, the within horses do nicely and undergo no drawback.
There’s loads of good New York racing and wagering nonetheless to return the remainder of the 12 months. Good luck in the course of the Aqueduct fall meet!
Noel Michaels has been involved in many aspects of thoroughbred racing for more than two decades, as a Breeders’ Cup-winning owner and as a writer, author, handicapper, editor, manager and promoter of the sport for a wide range of companies including Daily Racing Form and Nassau County Off-Track Betting.
He also is regarded as the leading source of news and information for handicapping tournaments and the author of the “Handicapping Contest Handbook: A Horseplayer’s Guide to Handicapping Tournaments”, which made his name virtually synonymous with the increasingly-popular tournament scene.
In addition to contributing to US Racing, he is also an analyst on the Arlington Park broadcast team.
