Guest essay by Eric Worrall
There seems to be a reduction in available fuel and a clear strategy for managing fire risk. But according to CSIRO, the real culprit is climate change.
CSIRO study proves climate change drives 800% of Australia’s bushfire outbreaks
Via Mike Foley
November 26, 2021 – 9pmAccording to a landmark study, the average annual area burned has increased by 800% over the past 32 years.
The study was peer-reviewed by the national scientific body, CSIRO – published in a prestigious scientific journal, Nature – reveal evidence that Changes in weather caused by global warming are the driving force behind the outbreak of bushfires in Australia.
Lead author and CSIRO climate scientist, Pep Canada, said the study established a correlation between the Wildfire Hazard Index, a measure of vegetation dryness related to weather, air temperature, wind speed and humidity – and the increase in the area of forest burned since the 1930s.
“It’s so tight, it’s so strong obviously when we have these big fire events, they’re driven by climate and weather,‘ said Dr. Canadianell.
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The weather system has blasted blast furnace-worthy westerly winds through the forests of NSW and Victoria, sparking some of the worst Black Summer fires of 2019-20, which will up to four times more likely will occur below the global warming forecast.
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Last year, The bushfire royal commission reports fuel management through reduced risk burning “may have no appreciable effect under extreme conditions” which often causes loss of life and property.
The CSIRO findings support that conclusion and raise the question calling for exploitation of natural forests used as a forest fire management tool.
“This is happening regardless of anything we can or can’t do to try to stop the fire,‘ said Dr. Canadianell.
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Does reduced fuel combustion work?
There is substantial evidence in Australia that the big problem with reduced fuel burn is that they don’t happen often enough.
From a fire service report written in 2015, Overview of Regulated Burning in Australasia;
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However, A reduction in the rate and intensity of wildfires in areas where extensive regulation is required is imperative in southwestern WA and in the tropical savannah, but less so elsewhere.
Its effect in temperate southern Australia appears to be most significant if implemented at a rate that maintains at least 25% of the land area with fuels younger than or equal to five years old. This condition is currently unattainable in any state in the South.
There is also debate about the value of regulated burning in improving the controllability of igniting fires in extremely hazardous fire conditions, when weather appears to be a major contributor to fire hazards. spread and spread fire. Although the view of most fire researchers is that low fuel levels have little effect on directly improving wildfire control under such conditions, reduced fuel levels can result in indirect benefits by unleashing repressive forces and improving the chances of asset protection. Furthermore, mapping the severity of burns after recent large wildfires has shown that low fuel from prior burning can significantly reduce damage to a wide range of environmental values. under extreme conditions, especially compared with damage incurred in forests with heavier fuel loads.
Since the majority of wildfires burn in less than extreme conditions, it appears that most can be mitigated to some extent by lighter fuels derived from regulated combustion. . However, predicting or empirically measuring the extent of this mitigation is complicated by many factors including variation in vegetation types and age, time since burning, efficiency of burning. fires in reducing fuel loads and weather conditions that lead to wildfires.
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The strategy of trying to exclude fires from the hottest part of the year has reduced fire rates, but has created conditions for hot summer wildfires that, when they inevitably do, can cause damage. much more harmful than before – both in terms of the environment and people. .
This situation demonstrates community pressure to take steps to mitigate and mitigate the inevitable wildfire impacts. An important element in any relevant strategy is the managed use, in ecosystems where appropriate, of cold (or regulated) combustion to reduce the amount of fuel available to Unplanned summer wildfires.
However, at the same time, Regulated burning in southern Australia has become increasingly difficult to implement on a significant scale due to a range of social and demographic factors, and over time combustible fuels continue to accumulate as fuel increases due to the long interval between combustion.
International wildfire historian and analyst Stephen Pyne (2006, Third Part, pp. 67 – 106) believes that This has been exacerbated by the Australian State governments, especially since the 1970s, respond with feeling community concerns, mainly focused but not exclusively on urban electoral bodies, and exclude economic uses from many public lands. For example, the conversion of many State forest areas into National Parks has left management agencies largely dependent on ‘payrolls’ to finance their management activities.
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Read more: https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/4893/overview-of-prescribe-burning-in-australasia.pdf
Australian forests want to burn. The seeds of many eucalyptus dominant species absolutely require fire to germinate, they have evolved to use fire to eliminate competition. Even when dry and dead, eucalyptus leaves and wood contain millions of tiny holes filled with highly flammable Eucalyptus oil. Green eucalyptus leaves and twigs burn quite happily when ignited, thanks to their high oil content. As the leaves and twigs of the Eucalyptus tree fall, this happens continuously thanks to the common wood-boring insects, which naturally form piles of well-aerated saplings, ready to ignite with a single spark. Best.
I believe the obvious suggestion that reduced fuel combustion is inactive is absurd. After all, the eucalyptus forest is always on fire, there is nothing we can do to prevent the Australian forests from burning. If man did not burn the accumulated fuel, nature would take care of it for us, either through lightning or spontaneous combustion. All we can do, through deliberate efforts, is control time and limit damage.
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