There is no basis for alarm in the Sea Feel’s fear, Second Report Found – Is It Raised Because of It?

By David Mason-Jones

Analysis of a second tide gauge in the waters of the Great Barrier Reef confirmed the results of an earlier study at the nearby Port of Townsville and Cape Ferguson. The new report focuses on the tide gauge at Cooktown on the Queensland coast, across from the Reef Lagoon.

Researcher and author of the report, Australian scientist Dr Bill Johnston, stated: “It is claimed that human-caused global warming is causing sea levels to rise, particularly in area north of the Great Barrier Reef, is unfounded.

“What the raw data from the Queensland Government Port Authority website shows is a clear increase of 0.036 meters per decade in Cooktown. This can be drawn simply by comparing the beginning of the Cooktown readings with the end of the series over a period of many years. However, such a method of analyzing data just by comparing the starting point with the end point is very stupid. Instead, the misidentified trend ‘found’ by such poor analysis is easily shown as a series of abrupt increases in the data, none of which are due to changes in climate. Queen.

“It’s a mistake that researchers should treat a series of step changes like this as a steadily increasing trend,” says Johnston.

Cooktown is located in the tropics and as a result of the combined effects of silt from the Endeavor River and intense winds and sea level rise from cyclones – all normal events in this part of the world – a chapter Massive dredging was carried out near the wharf to allow continued access by boats. In the process, 108,000 cubic meters of silt was dredged right next to the jetty in 1997. This caused the pylons on which the sensors were mounted to settle 40 mm down the river bed. Interestingly, the dredging of 26,000 cubic meters further from the wharf in 1999 to create a turning bay for the ship, did not cause the power pole to sink.

After tropical storms Ellie and Hamish in early 2009, further dredging near the jetty caused the ship to sink by 37 mm. In 2015, there was additional dredging combined with a wharf renovation, where the wooden wharf was reinforced and the deck reworked with a new composite structure capable of allowing small trucks to load and unload. This results in a sinking of more than 32mm. The combined result of all this dredging and extra loading is the massive deposition of the 109mm long tower, thus making the sea look as if it were rising.

“All of these sudden step changes can be clearly seen in the analysis,” says Johnston. “They stand out when they correlate with government records on dredging and other jobs. The full research report mentions several elements in addition to those outlined here. “

The Queensland Government has taken chronological aerial photographs of the coast including around Cooktown Harbour, and these photographs are publicly available from the Queensland Government archives. Aerial photographs taken in 1969, 1974, 1979, 1983, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1994 against high-definition Google Earth Pro satellite images show no signs of erosion. tides at Cherry Tree Bay just east of Cooktown on the peninsula.

Dr Johnston said: “The collection of terrestrial satellite data shows that the frightening claims of rapid sea level rise in the Reef are futile. The average surface level of the water relative to the topography of the coast does not change. Historical aerial photographs and satellite images show this.”

Even so, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) upheld its statement that due to global warming, sea levels in the Reef are rising and the fastest rate is in northern area.

The notion that sea levels could rise faster in Cooktown than elsewhere along the Reef is far-fetched.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts the sea level will increase by about 26 to 29 cm within the next 9 years, i.e. by 2030. For this projection of the IPCC will occur in the waters of Coral reefs just in the next nine years, seas better hurry up as current projections require an annual sea level rise of more than 3 cm per year. And if sea level rise were to delay for just another 12 months, the required annual rate would need to rise by 3.5 centimeters per year. With no evidence of this happening in the Townsville and Cooktown areas, it’s hard to grasp the idea that IPCC’s predictions will be applied.

Where do these guys get all this from?

What hard data do they base their claims on?

Do they ever deeply question their assumptions?

Johnston’s full report, including a downloadable PDF file with full graphs and tables of data, and a full description of the methods used, can be found here: http://www.bomwatch.com.au/bureau-of-meteorology/trends-in-sea-level-at-cooktown-great-barrier-reef/

Johnston exasperatedly said: “Like most things regarding Australia’s iconic Reef claim, the more data you look at, the more questions you have.

“The Cooktown study does not provide evidence for belief in rapid sea level rise and this supports my previous research on Townsville,” he said.

Mass media releases of politics, sentiment, uninformed media coverage and commentary on the health of the Reef are unsubstantiated. The Cooktown data shows that extreme statements about what has happened in the past, along with extreme predictions about what will happen in the future, are false and should be discarded.

David Mason-Jones is a freelance journalist with many years of experience. www.journalist.com.au

Dr Bill Johnston is a former senior research scientist with the NSW Department of Natural Resources and a former weather observer. www.bomwatch.com.au

For the full research report, visit:

http://www.bomwatch.com.au/bureau-of-meteorology/trends-in-sea-level-at-cooktown-great-barrier-reef/