ISTANBUL — Over the past year, the leaders of many NATO countries have viewed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Türkiye as a domestic disruptor.
While they were trying to isolate Russian President Vladimir V. Putin because of his invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Erdogan called Mr. Putin “my friend”. While other leaders have worked to expand the alliance, Mr. Erdogan has delayed the process by seeking concessions for Türkiye.
Then on Monday, all of a sudden, Erdogan reversed course, dropping his opposition to Sweden’s entry into NATO and allowing the convening of the alliance’s summit on Tuesday with a renewed sense of strength and unification.
Erdogan’s facelift matches his political style, analysts say: He often doubles down on policies he hopes will strengthen him, and then blunts them when he sees them. Their value has dwindled, analysts said.
In this case, he seems to have realized that he has little to gain by continuing to contain Sweden, but is likely to gain more from mending a sour relationship with the United States. and his other NATO allies.
“This is not Erdogan’s first turning point and it won’t be the last,” said Osman Sert, research director at PanoramaTR, a Turkish risk analysis organization. “Mr. Erdogan knows he needs to do something to bridge the gap with the West.”
More than a year since Sweden applied to join NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine, Mr. Erdogan has been the main roadblock, accusing Sweden of harboring dissidents whom Turkey considers terrorists. and vowed to let Sweden join NATO only after the suppression was over on them.
And Sweden responded, a victory for Mr. Sweden has tightened its anti-terrorism laws, revised its constitution and agreed to extradite a number of people requested by Türkiye.
Turkey won some more concessions when it announced its acceptance of Sweden on Monday: Sweden agreed to continue its counter-terrorism efforts and strengthen economic cooperation with Turkey.
But analysts say other issues could play a bigger role in changing Mr.
Turkey has tried to buy F-16 fighter jets and other military equipment from the United States, but the deal was rejected by Congress, where some members said they would not approve unless Turkey allows Sweden to join NATO. Biden administration officials have denied that the two issues are related, but some Turkish analysts say informal assurances from US officials that President Biden will work to push the deal through could play a big role.
Ahead of private talks with Mr Biden on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, on Tuesday, Mr Erdogan described their meeting as a “first step” in a stronger relationship.
“All of our previous meetings were like warm-up rounds, but right now we start a new process,” Erdogan said.
He wished Mr Biden good luck in the upcoming US election, and suggested that the two could work together for the rest of his new five-year term. Erdogan won in May.
“Thank you very much,” Biden replied, adding that he looked forward to working together “for the next five years.”
Mr. Erdogan is probably also aware that the patience of his NATO allies is beginning to run low and that further delaying Sweden’s membership will only worsen relations. Turkey is the only NATO country that has yet to impose sanctions on Russia, which has led some Western officials to question Turkey’s loyalty to the alliance.
“Turkey has assessed that the potential additional benefits it could gain by prolonging this process are no longer worth it,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. pressure that Turkey will face.” .
The change also appears to be part of Erdogan’s efforts to move Türkiye away from Russia and toward the West, he said. That would make a lot of sense, if maintained, he said.
Unluhisarcikli said: “Türkiye and Russia have no romantic relationship. Instead, they engage in “competitive cooperation,” he said, and tend to draw closer together when Turkey feels alienated from the West.
As signs that Mr. Erdogan is distancing Turkey from Russia, he cited Turkey’s decision to allow fighters from Ukraine’s Azov Regiment. Returning to Ukraine from Türkiye last weekend, angering Russiaas well as Erdogan’s failure to stand up to Putin when Wagner’s mercenaries marched toward Moscow in June.
“Erdogan may have judged that putting all his eggs in Putin’s basket is not a good idea,” he said.
On the other hand, allowing Sweden to join NATO and implement the F-16 deal could allow Erdogan to rekindle an already cold relationship with Washington.
Mr. Biden has kept his distance from Mr. Erdogan since he entered the White House. During his election campaign, he described Mr. Erdogan as anti-democratic and vowed to support the Turkish opposition. For his part, Mr. Erdogan has a close relationship with former President Donald J. Trump.
Mr. Biden and Mr. Erdogan have met before during Mr. Biden’s presidency, but Mr. Biden is the first US president to not receive Mr. Erdogan at the White House since the Turkish leader began his political career. country in 2002.
Gulsin Harman contribution report.
