Via Linnea Lueken -April 5, 2022
The Denver Post recently published an article claiming global warming will cause more severe wildfire seasons, as well as more severe flooding in the western United States. Data indicates that these statements are false; Wildfires in the West are not caused by climate change, and there is no trend toward increasing or decreasing rainfall in the US
Article titled “Fire and rain: West suffers more than one or two effects of extreme climate“, quote researchers who have published a study that analyzes climate models that simulate “fire weather” and predicts precipitation along with further presumed climate change.
The Denver Post Write:
One of two devastating wildfires, followed by torrential downpours, which trigger floods and landslides, would hit the western United States more often than in a hot world, a new study says. up, becoming a regular phenomenon, a new study says.
It is important to first point out that these claims are not based on observations or recorded data but on climate model projections of future flood and fire weather conditions, using same warming models and scenarios that do not replicate current and past temperatures. Climate realism has repeatedly demonstrated that climate models are flawed and that their forecasts cannot be trusted, this, thisand thisFor example.
The study authors themselves admit that they used modeled “worst-case” warming scenarios, which are highly unlikely. To justify the use of extreme scenarios, the researchers say they “cannot use simulations of more likely scenarios with some moderate emissions reductions”. The researchers assert that even moderate warming scenarios would lead to a “fourfold increase in fires and floods” in the Pacific Northwest. They offered no supporting evidence or reasons to support this claim, and neither did.
The Denver Post spoke with a scientist not involved in the study, who pointed out that global climate and temperature models may not work at the local level the way the study is applying them. Despite making this cautious statement, he happily went in the right direction, then he reversed himself and said unscientifically, “[s]until, the results make sense. ”
Actual data shows that these forecasts are unbelievable.
Especially the American West and the Pacific Northwest, historically there have been dry and wet seasons due to the fluctuating nature of Pacific weather patterns, known as El Niño and La Niña. As described in Climate realism posts this and this, for example, those weather patterns are completely natural, and occurred long before the industrial revolution. These cycles can last for years and there is no indication that they are being elevated in severity.
Drought is a major factor in forest fires. Data from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Palmer Drought Severity Index shows that drought severity in the Southwest, including California and Colorado, has decreased over time, as shown in the chart below.
This data does not suggest that the frequency or severity of wildfires will increase due to arid conditions.
Climate at a glance: Wildfires thoroughly confirm the claim that wildfires are on the rise in the United States, demonstrating in the chart below that these fires are much less severe than they were in the early 20sorder century, with only recent climbs.
The recent increase in uncontrolled fires in western states like California, Washington and Oregon, is most likely due to decades of ineffective forest management. Federal and state governments have refused to play an active role in removing dead bushes and trees for nearly 40 years now, as explained in an article on Climate Realism, thisresulting in dangerously high fuel loads that can easily glow under the right conditions.
In general, the available observational data give no reason to believe that the modest pattern of global warming experienced over the century will suddenly lead to catastrophic wildfires and flooding for the western United States. . The Denver Post long articles on unsupported claims and short on facts. Faulty computer model forecasts are no substitute for evidence and data on climate trends, and current trends are at least not alarming.
https://www.heartland.org/about-us/who-we-are/linnea-lueken
Linnea Lueken is a Research Fellow of the Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy. As a Heartland Institute intern in 2018, she co-authored the Heartland Institute Policy Brief “Drawling Four Persistent Myths of Hydraulic Fracture.”
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