Winter Won’t Loosen Its Grip Any Time Soon in the Eastern US – Are You Rising to That?

Weekend weather at 500 mb could be quite volatile over the eastern US with a deep, high-lying trough forming across the west coast of Canada and the North Atlantic. Maps courtesy of ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

… Very cold form and activity over the next few weeks including storm threat over the weekend *

Meteorologist Paul Dorian


Winter won’t loosen its grip on the eastern United States any time soon as it appears a very cold weather pattern will continue for at least the rest of the month. Other than that, the overall pattern looks pretty dynamic as there could be more storms threatening and perhaps one early into the upcoming weekend.

Colder-than-normal conditions will prevail in the eastern half of the country during the five-day period January 22-January 27 (October 6). Map provided by NOAA,

Cold, stormy

After a very mild month of December in much of the eastern US, the first half of January was completely different from normal to slightly below-normal temperatures. The second half of the month looks to be a bit colder than usual and could even include some extreme cold next week as temperatures could drop well below normal in late January in some parts of the states. northeast. During December, there are certainly some cold air masses around in North America, but they are often bottled throughout northwestern Canada and Alaska without the mechanism to ship them into the northern United States.

Colder-than-normal conditions will prevail in the eastern half of the country during the five-day period from January 27 to February 1 (11-15). Map provided by NOAA,

However, the overall air morphology changed noticeably earlier this month to allow the movement of cold air masses from northwestern Canada into the central and eastern United States. Specifically, a powerful high-pressure trough strengthening and extending northward along the west coast of Canada and Alaska creates a strong northwesterly air current just east of the ridge axis. It looks like this powerful ridge will be quite persistent over the next few weeks.

Two remote connectivity indicators that support the idea that the western Canadian ridge will hold its ground in the coming days include the EPO (in negative territory) and PNA (in positive territory). Permitted Data ECMWF (EPO), Weather Bell Analysis (EPO), NOAA (PNA)

Two metrics of telecommunications connectivity support this idea of ​​a western ridge that holds and creates an overall pattern of cold in the eastern United States known to meteorologists as the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO). ) and Pacific-North America (PNA). When the EPO is always in a negative and PNA is in a stable phase positive During the winter, a strong high pressure peak usually forms over the northeastern portion of the Pacific Ocean and Alaska. This is indeed likely to happen for these remote connectivity metrics over the next few weeks as described by many recent runs of computer forecasting models. In fact, if the western ridge could extend far enough northward, it could create a “transpolar” air current that could send Siberian air masses across the Arctic and eventually into central and the eastern United States – not outside. of questions with this type of sample over the next few weeks.

The next cold front to hit the eastern states on Thursday could be preceded by some snow as a wave forms along the frigid front boundary area. Map provided by NOAA,

The next cold front to the eastern states will arrive on Thursday and it could precede a periodic snowfall in parts as a wave of low pressure forms along the front boundary. next. Temperatures are likely to turn colder Thursday through Friday with very cold conditions over the weekend. Another cold front is expected to hit the eastern US early next week and this one could have some extreme cold; in particular, throughout the northeastern states.

A storm threat exists early into the upcoming weekend over parts of the eastern US with a strong upper-energy wave depicted here by 12Z Euro early Saturday morning. Maps courtesy of ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Aside from the cold, it looks like the overall pattern will be pretty positive over the next few weeks in the eastern US with multiple storm threats on the table. The two upper ridges will be joined by a periodic bottom in the upper elevations in the eastern states, which is likely to deepen significantly later this week. Another bottom is likely to form in the eastern part of the Pacific in the coming days and this generally correlates well with a bottom east of the US. By the end of next week, all of these pieces will be in place, and indeed this could lead to a storm system (or two) in the eastern states anywhere between late Friday. to Sunday. Any storms that form later this week are likely to be followed by some very cold air early next week, and additional cold fronts are certain to follow.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian

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