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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #541


The Week That Was: 2023-02-18 (February 18, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “It is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment in which it finds itself.”Charles Darwin

Number of the Week: 69%

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: This TWTW includes the following. In a revealing interview by Jordan Peterson, Judith Curry quietly corrected errors in understanding certain concepts by Peterson. She covers numerous important concepts ignored by the dangerous climate change community and why she left Academia while chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Writing for Net Zero Watch, Andrew Montford neatly sums the problem of going to net zero carbon dioxide emissions in generating electricity. It is a path to bankruptcy currently paved by huge government subsidies.

Power-System professional Donn Dears discusses the folly of eliminating fossil fuels in transportation systems by going to electric vehicles. Dears describes a lengthy report by the Geological Survey of Finland. The report took a novel approach from the simple assuming-away-problems (common to academics). It focused on the materials needed. The results are not fantasy.

In No Tricks Zone, Pierre Gosselin writes that new EU regulations will destroy automobile use for all but the rich (shades of Cuba?). In the comments following the post, Indur Goklany, author of The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet (2007) points out why the science used to justify the regulations is shoddy. His comments apply to the US EPA as well.

Paul Homewood brings up a video explaining the problems with hydrogen which is touted as a fuel. No matter how it is “colored,” on earth, hydrogen is not a fuel, there are no pure hydrogen resources. It must be extracted from other compounds by breaking strong chemical bonds. The process is costly. At best it is a means of storage. See link under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Other and Article #1.

Writing in Yale Climate Connections, a person with a Ph.D. in English, once funded by an entity of the National Science Foundation, claims we can use the power of love to “fight against climate change.” See link under Below the Bottom Line.

Due to the Heartland Conference, there will be no TWTW next week. TWTW will resume on March 4.

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Uncertainty Monster: Unfortunately, a text of the comments by Judith Curry in her interview by Jordan Peterson is not available. Thus, one must sit through bombastic comments by Peterson and numerous ads to listen to her comments. Bombastic comments are sensationalistic, and no doubt help promote the interviews, just like UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports become sensationalistic as one moves from the main report to the Summary for Policymakers, to press releases and declarations by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. Below is a brief review of what TWTW considers important points made by Curry.

Curry quietly corrects Peterson on several false notions. For example, Peterson talks about the hockey-stick featured in the 2001 IPCC Summary for Policymakers and press conferences, misunderstanding “hide the decline.” But as Curry states, the real issue with the hockey-stick is the use of two different datasets, without a standardization period showing they are compatible. That is, they measure the same thing the same way, on same scale.

Shortly after Katrina (2005), Curry published a paper showing increases in hurricane activity in the 1990s to the early 2000s. The short timescale showed an increase in activity of category 4 and 5 hurricanes. She was welcomed into the dangerous climate change community and attacked by skeptics for the short timescale. Then came the unauthorized release of the Climategate emails from the University of East Anglia by a person or persons unknown. These showed that the climate community refused to respond to Freedom of Information (FOIA) requests and avoided discussing the uncertainty of the science. They also showed how sensitive the community was to criticism.

Curry states that she did not question the substance of the science but questioned the behavior of the scientists. We cannot distinguish a human impact from natural variability with a lot of confidence. In response, she started her blog, Climate Etc., advocating what she calls the uncertainty monster.

She states that the 1992 IPCC supplement of the 1990 report started the deep dive of using model projections before there is supporting evidence.

[Among other major conclusions the Supplement states:

“the evidence from the modeling studies, from observations and the sensitivity analyses indicate that the sensitivity of global mean surface temperature to doubling CO2, is unlikely to lie outside the range 1.5° to 4.5°C;

“the size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus, the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability; alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced greenhouse warming;

“the unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.]

So, Curry did not depart from the conclusions in the report, but recognized the uncertainty involved, which advocates tried to dismiss. Yet, from her recognition of uncertainty, attacks on her began to snowball.

Other issues that Curry asserts that are important to understand are: 1) that in the global climate models water vapor and clouds amplify the warming, 2) Richard Lindzen proposes that in the tropics there is a negative feedback; 3) we need to understand the ocean circulations; 4) the vertical transport of heat, which is a major part of the uncertainty and changes in weather patterns and clouds.

Other points: we cannot make predictions into the future and dismissing of the role of the sun is crazy. Yet, the enormous uncertainty is ignored by the media (which seeks sensationalist headlines). Also, uncertainty is ignored in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Curry brings up the 17 UN sustainable goals, which begin with:

1.         No Poverty

2.         Zero Hunger

3.         Good Health and Well-Being

4.         Quality Education

5.         Gender Equality

6.         Clean Water and Sanitation

7.         Affordable and Clean Energy

Climate action is number 13 in the list, yet climate action has taken precedence over elimination of poverty, hunger, etc.

As Curry states, no wonder African leaders are calling actions by western development organizations (such as international banks denying power plant loans) “Green Colonialism” and “Energy Apartheid.” See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Seeking a Common Ground, and https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/ipcc_90_92_assessments_far_1992_ipcc_suppl.pdf

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What Back-up? Andrew Montford begins his essay asserting that the intermittency problem of solar and wind cannot be easily solved by stating:

“I often ask renewables enthusiasts to explain what we are supposed to do when the wind isn’t blowing if we can’t fall back on fossil fuels. The other day, I pressed James Murray, the editor of Business Green magazine, what forms of storage he thought we could use, and this is what he said:

“’… a portfolio of nuclear, demand response, grid scale batteries, other emerging forms of energy storage technologies, hydrogen, and gas, ultimately in conjunction with CCS.’

“Clearly, we were talking somewhat at cross purposes; my question was specifically about storage, but even if we broaden the scope to cover the general question of ‘what do we do when the wind isn’t blowing’, his answer suggests that he hasn’t grasped the fundamental economic problem.

“That problem is that, with wind dominating the grid, for anyone looking to make money in the lulls, the economics look grim. There are two major kinds of lull that need to be filled. The first is a dunkelflaute, a lull in the winter, when solar is generating little or nothing. We get a dunkelflaute most years, and sometimes more than one. They can last from 1-3 weeks. The second is the long summer lull, with low wind generation right through the summer month, although perhaps with occasional windy interruptions. This happens every year of course, and a large amount of energy needs to be stored to cover the gap: perhaps as much as 50 days’ demand.”

Montford asserts:

“Needing a large amount of electricity just a couple of times a year makes the economics impossible. It’s not just storage technologies that are affected – James’ idea that we could use nuclear to plug the gap therefore doesn’t stack up.”

The problem applies to every system trying to switch from reliable, affordable electricity to wind, solar, and storage. Who will pay for the backup, and how much will it cost? See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Hitting the Net Zero Wall: In discussing the materials needed for wind, solar, biofuels, and nuclear power to replace fossil fuels for generating electricity, and the amount of materials required to replace vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) with battery-powered vehicles (BEVs), Donn Dears discusses a report by the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) which uses an approach different than that used by most organizations. The 1000-page report states:

“GTK’s assistant research professor Simon Michaux approached this critical topic from a completely different perspective in his research. Generally, research on replacing fossil fuels focuses on carbon emissions and limiting climate change. Michaux, on the other hand, worked out from the bottom up by calculating how much electric cars, hydrogen, biofuels, solar panels, and wind turbines would be needed so that the current energy system could completely abandon the use of fossil fuels.”

Dears writes [Boldface by Dears]:

“Here is what the report said about Nickel, Lithium and Cobalt.

‘In theory, there are enough global reserves of nickel and lithium if they were exclusively used just to produce li-Ion batteries for vehicles.

  • To make just one battery for each vehicle in the global transport fleet (excluding Class 8 HCV trucks), it would require 48.2% of 2018 global nickel reserves, and 43.8% of global lithium reserves.
  • There is also not enough cobalt in current reserves to meet this demand and more will need to be discovered.
  • Lithium-ion batteries could only have a useful working life of 8 to 10 years. So, 8-10 years after manufacture, new replacement batteries will be required, from either a mined mineral source, or a recycled metal source.

“And here is what the report says about storage for wind and solar:

‘A conservative estimate selected for this report was a 4-week power capacity buffer for solar and wind only to manage the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.’

And the reports’ overall conclusion:

‘In conclusion, this report suggests that replacing the existing fossil fuel powered system (oil, gas, and coal), using renewable technologies, such as solar panels or wind turbines, will not be possible for the entire global human population.’”

Once, governments were thought to solve problems, not create them. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Article # 2.

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Absurd Statistics: In No Tricks Zone, P. Gosselin writes about a pushback from the auto industry in the EU against proposed regulations on automobiles using internal combustion engines.

“In November 2022, the EU Commission presented its “Euro 7” vehicle emissions standard proposal. The new directive would mandate new vehicles to become cleaner and apply to all newly registered vehicles as of July 2025.

“‘We cannot accept a society where exposure to air pollution is responsible for more than 300,000 premature deaths a year in the EU-27 alone,’ said Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager, responsible for competition policy, at the launch of the proposal. The new rules will help us breathe cleaner air and make the sector greener and more resilient. We must stick to the goal of the European Green Deal and set global standards.’

“But critics warn “Euro 7” will make cars far more expensive, turning them into a luxury good affordable only to the rich. The EU Commission is in fact striving to restrict general individual mass mobility under the guise of clean air and climate protection.”

In the comments section, Indur Goklany, who is with the US Department of Interior and who understands how health statistics are misused, writes:

“The 300,000 estimate is based on shoddy science using equally shoddy statistical extrapolations based largely on a set of studies whose underlying data and methodology has not been subjected to proper forensic and scientific cross examination on the excuse that sharing the data would violate medical privacy. My view on this is that if you can’t cross examine the data you, then, can’t use it for developing public policy either.

“First, there is little relationship between indoor and outdoor air pollution. Second, given the large (bogus) estimates of the death toll associated with outdoor air pollution, one may have expected that air pollutants in combination with carbon dioxide would have reduced life expectancy during the period of high carbon dioxide growth for a nation, that is, from the late 1990s to the present. It has been estimated that in 2010, outdoor air pollution, mostly from PM 2.5, led to 1.36 million deaths in China and 645,000 deaths in India. [Lelieveld et al., 2015.] If these estimates, which are based on statistical associations rather than hard cause-of-death data from death certificates, are accurate, then for 2010, 14.8% of all deaths in China and 7.0% in India were due to outdoor air pollution. [WHO, 2018.] Nevertheless, there is no hint of any decline in life expectancy during the period when fossil fuel use and therefore presumably outdoor air pollution were growing rapidly (see Figures 7.5 and 7.6). Table 7.1 [Not shown here] indicates that, despite substantial increases in PM 2.5 exposures, life expectancies in both countries increased substantially. This indicates that deaths from outdoor air pollution do not substantially decrease life expectancy, are overestimated, or they are more than overwhelmed by all the factors associated with economic development and energy use that improve life expectancy, or some combination of these factors. [Boldface added]

See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles and Challenging the Orthodoxy for Goklany’s recent paper.

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More Exaggerated Statistics: In The Daily Sceptic, Chris Morrison writes about a report presented at the UN COP15 Biodiversity Summit in Montreal:

“Two independent groups of scientists have destroyed the always improbable claim that vertebrates across the planet have declined by 69% since 1970. The averaged claim is made by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Zoological Society of London (ZSL). It is a bedrock climate and ecological scare story repeated endlessly in the mainstream media and broadcast everywhere from UN platforms to school classrooms.”

The two groups contesting the report at the UN conference are biologists from Canada and from Finland. The group from Finland goes deeper into the problems of the procedures used than the group from Canada. Interestingly, the authors of the original report write:

“In summary: (1) Puurtinen et al. raise an excellent and correct point: both researchers and the media must guard against the unfortunately common mistake of interpretating the LPI [Living Planet Index]as measuring abundance loss. (2) Analyses using the LPD [LPI?] necessarily refer to trends, given the type of data available. (3) Aggregate measures are inherently difficult to interpret, given the non-equivalence of species.”

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Beyond Groupthink: The 15th Climate Change Conference by The Heartland Institute will be held from February 23 to 25, 2023, at the Hilton Lake Buena Vista in Orlando, Florida. It will feature over 40 speakers, including members of the SEPP Board of Directors, Willie Soon and David Legates. Tom Sheahen, Howard “Cork” Hayden, and Ken Haapala will address the question: “Is Climate Science Scientific?”

Mathematician and Physicist Christopher Essex will receive SEPP’s 2022 Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award. Other featured speakers include Richard Lindzen, William Happer, Ross McKitrick, who exposed the improper use of the Gauss-Markov Theorem in CO2 attribution studies, Ian Plimer, Patrick Moore, Anthony Watts, Joe Bastardi, and many more. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/

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Number of the Week: 69%. It is stunning to realize that environmental groups proclaimed that vertebrates across the planet have declined by 69% since 1970 (at the December 7, 2022, UN conference on biodiversity) and were not challenged immediately. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Impacts of Climate Change: Perception and Reality

By Indur M. Goklany, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2021

Final Brief Submitted In CHECC v. EPA

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 11, 2023

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-2-11-final-brief-submitted-in-checc-v-epa

“I won’t try to go into great detail about the arguments in the brief, but here are two of the main ones:

“The Made-up Surface Temperature Record”

“The Failure Of Real-World Data To Validate The Models On Which EPA Relies”

Scientists Debunk Alarmist Claim That 69% of Vertebrates Have Declined Over Last 50 Years

By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Feb 16, 2023 [H/t ICECAP]

Link to counter to UN accepted report: The Living Planet Index does not measure abundance

By Mikael Puurtinen, et al, Nature, Jan 26, 2022

Link to latest technical report: A Deep Dive Into the Living Index; A Technical Report

By J. Westveer, et al., WWF and ZSL (Zoological Society of London) Institute of Zoology, 2022

Why the intermittency problem can’t be solved

By Andrews Montford, Net Zero Watch, Feb 15, 2023

It’s All About Materials

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 14, 2023

Link to press release of report: Research by GTK: current mineral resources are not enough to build an infrastructure based on fossil-free energy.

By Staff, Geological Survey of Finland, Apr 12, 2022

Greenpeace Betrays Founders to Peddle Junk Science

By Patrick Moore, CO2 Coalition, Feb 15, 2023 [H/t ICECAP]

REPRISE — Why I Don’t Deny: Confessions of a Climate Skeptic — Part 2

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 12, 2023

“I am still a skeptic because all of those things, freely accepted more-or-less as claimed, do not add up to anything even near a “proof” of the IPCC hypothesis:

“CO2 and other anthropogenic emissions are ‘the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.’” [Boldface in original]

Defending the Orthodoxy

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals

By Staff, UN Sustainable Development, Adopted in Paris Agreement, Dec 2015 (Latest listed)

https://sdgs.un.org/goals#

UN chief: Rising seas could spark ‘mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale’

By Julia Shapero, The Hill, Feb 15, 2023

How Leaders Should Spend Trillions to Combat Climate?

By Greta Thunberg, LA Times, Feb 13, 2023

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-02-13/greta-thunberg-climate-change-carbon-emissions

“We cannot just buy, invest or build our way out of the climate and environmental crisis. Nevertheless, money is still very much at the heart of the problem. Investment is vital.”

[SEPP Comment: How does this “climate justice activist” expect to obtain the money – gunpoint?]

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

University Experts say climate change causes Earthquakes. Let’s stop quakes with solar panels then?

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 16, 2023

“Professor İbrahim Özdemir is a UN advisor and an ecologist teaching at Üsküdar University. He has served as Director-General at the Department of Foreign Affairs of the Turkish Ministry of Education and was a leading member in drafting the Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change endorsed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC.”

Questioning the Orthodoxy

2035: the end of civilization

Where is energy policy taking us

By James McSweeney, The Critic, Feb 10, 2023

https://thecritic.co.uk/2035-the-end-of-civilisation/

Opposing the Climate Inquisition

By Anthony Watts and H. Sterling Burnett, American Thinker, Feb 17, 2023

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/02/2_16_2023_21_48.html

Winter Games: A Climate Change Thriller that Skeptics Will Love

By John Dale Dunn, American Thinker, Feb 15, 2023

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/02/emwinter_gamesem_a_climate_change_thriller_that_skeptics_will_love.html

The Climate Scare Narrative Continues To Collapse

I & I Editorial Board, Feb 14, 2023

Gas Stoves: The Beloved Blue Flame is Just Better

By Mark Krebs and Tom Tanton, Master Resource, Feb 14, 2023

Out of Sight, Out of Mind Isn’t a Climate Strategy

By Danielle Butcher Franz, Real Clear Energy, Feb 13, 2023

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/02/13/out_of_sight_out_of_mind_isnt_a_climate_strategy_880883.html

Seeking a Common Ground

My interview with Jordan Peterson

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Feb 6, 2023

Link to podcast: The Models Are OK, the Predictions Are Wrong | Dr. Judith Curry | EP 329

By Jordan Peterson, YouTube, Feb 6, 2023

Change in US Administrations

Yeah, we looked

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 15, 2023

“As we predicted back on August 17 of last year, delirious claims that Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act meant the US is finally taking action have quickly given way to moans that nothing is being done and we finally need to start doing something.”

EPA details plans for $27 billion in Inflation Reduction Act climate funds

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 14, 2023

“A total of $20 billion in grants will go to nonprofits that collaborate with local financial institutions including green banks, credit unions or housing finance agencies. That money will go toward projects that cut pollution and energy costs, according to the announcement.”

[SEPP Comment: Green squandering will reduce inflation?]

Joe Biden’s ’10 Years More of Oil’ Is More Dangerous Energy Ignorance

By Daniel Turner, Real Clear Energy, Feb 16, 2023

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/02/16/joe_bidens_10_years_more_of_oil_is_more_dangerous_energy_ignorance_882257.html

Measurement Issues — Surface

Legacy Electronics Botch Temperature Recordings Across Australia (Part 1)

By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Feb 13, 2023

Charting The Record Cold [Wyoming]

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 17, 2023

Shows How NOAA hides the decline.

Hyping Maximum Daily Temperatures (Part 7)

By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Feb 17, 2023

“In summary, the available 90th, 95th and 99th percentile data provides compelling evidence that platinum resistance probes in automatic weather stations increased the frequency of hot, very hot and extremely hot days in Australia since 1996, with a further change in the pattern of increase since installation of the replacement probes to as recently as 2016.

In 2003 The Globe Was 0.34% Urban. By 2035 0.96% Will Be. ‘Global’ Warming Is Significantly Urban-Induced.

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 13, 2023

Link to paper: Urbanization-induced Earth’s surface energy alteration and warming: A global spatiotemporal analysis

By Pengke Shen, et al. Remote Sensing of Environment, January 2023

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0034425722004679

Link to second paper: Surface warming in global cities is substantially more rapid than in rural background areas

By Zihan Liu,, et al. Nature Communications, Earth & Environment, Sep 29, 2022

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00539-x

[SEPP Comment: Interesting coincidence in second paper: “We also find evidence of urban greening in European cities, which offsets 0.13 ± 0.034 K·decade−1 of background surface warming.” The offset is equal to the total 40 plus year warming trend of the atmosphere.]

Valentine’s Day Trends

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 15, 2023

[SEPP Comment: Includes headlines on the 1921 severe heatwave.]

Changing Weather

Cat 4 Hurricane Trends

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 11, 2023

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