NATO, which includes Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia among its members, says it has observed cyberattacks, disinformation, intimidation and other destabilizing activities in the Western Balkans during past 12 months.
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As Russia’s onslaught of Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, concerns are growing about the Kremlin’s efforts to capitalize on simmering tensions in a “second battlefield.”
The Western Balkans, a group of six countries that European Union officials have repeatedly said belong to the European family, includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia.
Not yet a member of the 27-nation bloc, the region of about 18 million people in Southern and Eastern Europe is known as an arena of geostrategic competition, with Moscow, Brussels and Washington among the contenders enjoy.
The promise to join the EU is seen as the West’s most powerful tool for regional stability and integration, and Western Balkan leaders have welcome recently what seems to be a new mindset to strengthen relationships.
But concerns about Russian influence in the Western Balkans – an area still scarred by the ethnic wars of the 1990s – has intensified since the Kremlin’s all-out invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, North Macedonian President Stevo Pendarovski said that, in addition to Kiev, he believes the Western Balkans is a “soft spot” in Europe’s security architecture.
NATO, which includes Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia among its members, says it has observed cyberattacks, disinformation, intimidation and other destabilizing activities in the Western Balkans during past 12 months. This adds up to renewed tensions in the region, including in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
To be sure, the Western Balkans is Russia’s second battleground for foreign interference and information manipulation.
Peter Stano
Top EU Foreign Affairs Spokesperson
The US-led military coalition also warned of foreign actors working to sabotage progress, while North Macedonia’s Pendarovski said the Western Balkans had been the target of its divisive agenda Russia for several years.
“My assessment is that, if Russia tries to somehow divert the West’s attention away from Ukraine, which is the main theater of war and propaganda, the Western Balkans are more susceptible than other countries. Baltic states. So we should take care of that,” Pendarovski said last month.
“It seems to me that the so-called soft spot in the entire current pan-European security architecture, with the exception of Ukraine, of course… is the Western Balkans.”
‘A Second Battlefield for Russia’
Russia is said to be unhappy with its pursuit of Western Balkan countries’ integration into the EU and NATO, and the Kremlin is accused of exploiting ethnic and religious conflicts to undermine those efforts.
Moscow, which has long cultivated relations with Serbia and other allies, has refuse announced that they were seeking to sow chaos throughout the region.
Adnan Ćerimagi, a senior analyst for the Western Balkans at the European Stability Initiative think tank, said he agrees with Pendarovski’s security assessment of the region amid the Russian war. in Ukraine.
“The reason why I agree is that like in Russia, in the Western Balkans, there is a political vision that does not fit the current shape of the [its] border,” Ćerimagić told CNBC by phone.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, North Macedonian President Stevo Pendarovski said that apart from Ukraine, he believes the Western Balkans is a “weak spot” in Europe’s security architecture.
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Ćerimagić said Russia’s war in Ukraine offers Europe a clear opportunity to bolster stability in the Western Balkans. He said the bloc could seize the moment by making a specific offer to the countries, allowing them to join in 2027 or 2030, if they make the necessary reforms.
“I think if they want to reach an agreement, they will need to step up their offer to the region,” said Ćerimagić.
EU officials have sought to reaffirm the importance of including the Western Balkans in the bloc since Russia invaded Ukraine, and regional leaders — in a dramatic change in tone just a few months ago — praised this development late last year.
At the EU-West Balkan summit in early December, held in the Balkans for the first time, the bloc underlined “its full and unequivocal commitment to the European Union membership position of the Western Balkans.”
This is done on the condition of “credible reforms” of the partners.
Peter Stano, the EU’s chief foreign affairs spokesman, said he completely rejected criticism that the EU was not doing enough to support the Western Balkans’ accession to the bloc.
“The fact that they are in the accession process means that every day they are getting closer and more integrated with the EU based on their efforts in implementing reforms and with significant support from the EU, ‘ said Stano.
At the EU-Western Balkans summit in early December, held for the first time in the Balkans, the bloc stressed its “full and unequivocal commitment to the European Union’s view of membership”. Western Balkans.”
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When asked about the current security situation in the region, Stano replied: “It’s more about stability than security.”
“This is not a war zone and will not become a war zone for two reasons. Some countries in the region are already NATO members, and in others we have EU mandates ( military and civilian) and all of those countries are in the process of joining the EU,” Stano said.
This provides enough preventative protection from any kind of heated or heated conflict, he added, noting that there are still incidents and tensions, “but here’s something else.” different and related to previously unresolved issues”.
“Certainly, the Western Balkans is Russia’s second battleground for foreign interference and information manipulation. In the past, but after Ukraine, this has intensified in terms of overall intervention, including conflicts. hack the network and try to sabotage stability because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin doesn’t want them to move closer to the EU,” Stano said.
The future of the Western Balkans ‘right within the EU’
For its part, NATO said the group’s Strategic Concept adopted at the Madrid summit last June reaffirmed the strategic importance of the Western Balkans for the military alliance.
“It’s clear that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affects the stability of our vulnerable partners and puts them at greater risk of adverse effects,” a NATO official told CNBC. “We will continue to work together to maintain stability, support reform and resilience in the region, because security and stability in the Western Balkans is as important to NATO as it is to peace and stability.” set in Europe.”
North Macedonia’s Pendarovski last month described the US as a “key player” in helping the Western Balkan countries weather Russia’s war in Ukraine.
In response to a request for comment, a State Department spokesman told CNBC that Washington remains deeply involved in the region, describing the future of the Western Balkans as “entirely within the EU”.
“We must not let the Russian government use its war option to stifle the progress of the Western Balkan countries,” the spokesman said.
“Russia has clearly demonstrated that it does not share the same values and does not seek its best interests,” they added. “Russia’s war has also made clear the urgency of our work to assist all the countries of the Western Balkans to fully promote the democratic reforms and fortifications necessary to achieve their assembly aspirations.” integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions.”
