By David Mason-Jones,
Research by Dr. Lindsay Moore
The work of citizen scientist, Dr. Lindsay Moore, failed to confirm the IPCC’s key prediction of what would happen to the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures due to the House Effect. reinforced glass. The IPCC’s position is that this spread will shrink as a result of global warming.
Moore’s work focuses on the remote weather station at Giles in Western Australia and is operated by Australia’s peak weather watchdog, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
Why Giles?
Giles is the most remote weather station in mainland Australia and its isolation in a desert makes it an ideal place to study the problem of temperature propagation. It is located almost in the middle of the Continent, far away from influencing factors such as urban Heat Island effect, land use change, vegetation encroachment, shade of buildings, etc., which can make data corruption. Humidity is usually low and stable and far from the sea. Also, as an indication of its importance in the BoM network, Giles is permanently staffed.
As stated, the IPCC hypothesis is that the ‘gap’ will get smaller and smaller as the enhanced Greenhouse Effect is sustained. According to the IPCC, as the temperature increases, the distance narrows and this leads to an increase in the average temperature.
Moore’s research indicates that this is not the case at this exhibit BoM site. It could happen elsewhere and this needs to be checked on a case-by-case basis against the extent of all data corruption effects, but it didn’t happen in Giles.
Notes on the graphs.
The top line represents the average Tmax for each year – that is, the average maximum daytime temperature.
The graph in the middle shows the average Tmin for each year – that is, the average minimum nighttime temperature.
The chart below shows the results of the Tmax-Tmin calculation. In civilian terms, it is the result you get when you subtract the average annual maximum temperature from the average annual minimum temperature.
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If the IPCC hypothesis is valid, the lower line will steadily increase over the years because, according to IPCC, more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will result in warmer nights. But the plot does not show this.
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The IPCC’s rationale for its narrow prediction is that global warming will be driven more by an increase in overall minimum temperature than by a general increase in maximum temperature. This is not my claim, nor is it that of Dr. Moore, it is an IPCC claim and can be found in the IPCC AR4 Report.
Dr. Moore said, “In the AR4 report, the IPCC states that elevated CO2 levels trap heat, especially longwave radiation, from escaping into space.
“As a result, the IPCC states on page 750 that, ‘almost everywhere nighttime temperatures increase more than daytime temperatures, the number of days of frost reduction is projected over time, and land temperatures will be approximately two times the global average temperature increase,” he cited page 749 of the AR4 report.
So, where can we go to find evidence that IPCC’s assertion of Tmax-Tmin spread is happening or not happening? Giles is a great starting point. Can we use public board data to confirm or disprove the contraction prediction? The short answer is – Yes, we can.
However, before we all get too excited about the results Dr. Moore has found, we need to realize the limitation that this is just a website and, to a prudent scientific mind, still There may be some strange influence that skews the results. different from the IPCC prediction. If anyone can suggest possible candidates for possible ‘strange influences’ in Giles, we’d welcome them in the comments section of this post.
The caution duly exercised by a rigorous scientific mind can be properly balanced by the fact that Giles is a top site, long staffed and trusted. The station was also set up carefully, and for very specific scientific purposes, during the days of the Cold War as part of the British nuclear testing program in Australia in the 1950s. It was also very was important in providing timely and accurate meteorological data for rocket launches from the Woomera Missile Range in South Australia during the development of the Bluestreak Rocket as part of the UK/Australian space programme. This range extends roughly across Australia from the launch site at Woomera to the arid North West of Western Australia.
During the early years, there were several other weather monitoring stations along the range’s line. It is with care and precision in the operation of the station that Giles has the characteristics of a controlled experiment.
Dr. Moore said, “Giles is arguably the best site in the World because of its location and the accuracy and reliability of its records, which is a frequently recognized issue in many locations. The data is freely available on the BoM website for this site. ”
With regard to the site validity of a controlled trial, something about the analytical method is also remarkable. The novel application calculates the Tmax-Tmin spread by doing it daily in a neat way avoiding the meta data problems that hinder the reliability of data from other stations and sometimes falsify results from other presumed reliable observation sites.
“I think the only change in environmental conditions over the lifetime of this station is the increase in CO2 from 280 to 410 ppm,” he said.
“In effect, this is a controlled experiment with the only identifiable variable input being CO2 concentration,” he said.
Dr. Moore’s conclusion was that examining the historical record of this site by accessing the same data through the BoM website unequivocally showed NO significant reduction in Tmax-Tmin. It also does not show increased Tmin. Anyone can study this data on the website of the Bureau of Meteorology as it has no wall fees. It is indeed reasonable data from the government agency for the unrestricted attention of the public and other researchers.
Dr. Moore concludes, “A plausible interpretation of this observation is that, despite any other unidentified temperature influence, the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect caused by elevated CO2 has no effect markedly to the temperature at this location. And, by inference, any other website. “
He added, “On the basis of the observations I have made, there cannot be a climate emergency due to increased CO2 levels, whatever the cause of this increase. To make such claims is just intimidation.
“Any serious climate scientist should certainly be aware of such fundamental truths that, despite following science for many years, I have never seen any discussion of how to proceed. this particular approach,” he said.
Finally, Dr. Moore posed some questions and made some pertinent points:
He asked, “Can anyone explain, given the current state of science, why there is no minimal (coarse) increase in temperature or, more importantly, no decrease in Tmax-Tmin spread, in 65 years past records despite a significant increase in CO2 levels in Giles (280-410ppm) as forecasted by the IPCC in their AR4 report? He noted that other published studies indicate similar temperature profiles throughout central Australia as well as locations in North America and the World of similar quality.
Seeking more input, he asked, “Can anyone provide concrete data demonstrating that increased CO2 levels actually increase Tmin as predicted by IPCC?” And further, “Will the number of frost days in pristine locations as predicted by the IPCC decrease?”
Looking for more information, he queried, “Can anyone explain why CSIRO’s ‘State of Climate’ statement (2020) says that Australia’s average temperature has increased by more than 1 degree Celsius since since 1950, while it is clear that there has been no such increase in this unspoiled site? For this question, he notes that Giles is definitely the ‘should-go’ reference site in Mainland Australia.
Once again, he attempted to disentangle the web of conflicting claims from reputable scientific institutions. He notes that, according to the IPCC, the increase in average temperature is due to an increase in the minimum temperature. In order for the CSIRO’s Climate Status statement to be consistent with this, it would require an increase of approximately 2 degrees Celsius in Tmin. But, in Giles, there was no increase. He also noted that, according to the IPCC, the increase in temperature over land should be twice the increase in the average temperature in the world. But he can see no data to support this.
Dr. Moore’s final conclusion: “Through examination of more than 65 years of data at Giles, it can be demonstrated that, in the absence of any other identifiable temperature coercion, the image The effect of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect at this site is likely to be zero,” he said. “Not even a little bit!”
David Mason-Jones is a freelance journalist with many years of experience. He publishes the website www.bomwatch.com.au
Dr. Lindsay Moore, BVSC. For nearly 50 years, Lindsay Moore has run a successful veterinary business in a rural area in the Australian State of Victoria. His veterinary expertise is in the field of large animals and he is involved in complex techniques such as embryo transfer. Over the years he has seen a number of major cases in veterinary science where something that was once accepted for obvious reason and applied in the industry, then proved to be incorrect. He knew that this phenomenon was not limited to Veterinary Science, but also occurred in other scientific fields. The lesson he learns from this is that science needs to be cautious when it comes to moving forward, and confusing assumptions about ‘settled science’ can lead to significant errors. When he became aware of this problem in science, he became interested in how science is conducted and how it is used. He has been interested in global warming for about 20 years.
The general link to the website of the Bureau of Meteorology is www.bom.gov.au
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