Boxing expert and IBHOF curator Graham Houston looks for value in tonight’s potentially explosive light-heavyweight unified clash between WBC and IBF champion Artur Beterbiev and WBO king Joe Smith.
Like everyone, I’m expecting a fight in tonight’s clash of light and heavyweight champions Artur Betterbiev and Joe Smith Jr at the theater downstairs in Madison Square Garden.
Russia’s Montreal-based Beterbiev is clearly the favorite (1/8 at Betfred). He has a world-class amateur background and simply looks like a more complete boxer. However, I give Smith a chance. He is a strong man, he can punch and he has a good working speed. It’s a home fight for Long Island’s Smith; the New York crowd would be right behind him.
If you feel that Smith might give shocking results, Betfred offers an attractive price of 5/1 (+500).
One thing that interests me about Betterbiev is his age. He is 37 years old, and although Beterbiev has a perfect 17-0 (17 KOs) record as a professional, there are already signs that he may be slowing down. Callum Johnson knocked out Beterbiev, while huge underdog Adam Deines hung there for 10 rounds.
Additionally, male tennis player Marcus Browne started well against Beterbiev, winning the first three innings on the referee’s two cards, although he withered under Beterbiev’s onslaught after a clash that left him wither. both shed blood.
Oleksandr Gvozdyk played well for four innings before the more powerful Beterbiev and club power took over. And although it doesn’t show up on his profile, Betterbiev was knocked out in the first round against a Kansas limited fighter named Jeff Page in 2014.
So we know that Beterbiev can be caught and injured, he can be stretched into the later rounds and he can be overtaken in the early rounds. He is a formidable fighting machine, without a doubt, but he is by no means invincible.
Smith is five years younger. He is a 175-pound athlete. And Smith showed a constant quality in his victories over Jesse Hart and Eleider Alvarez, fights in which he kept punches constant and unchallenged.
While Smith struggles with veteran Maxim Vlasov, this could be a “battle-making style” sort of thing. Vlasov is clumsy and crafty and Smith can’t seem to stay on track. In his final battle, Smith reverted to his old self by taking down the unannounced but capable Steve Geffrard.
However, while I would expect a solid effort from Smith, I feel that Beterbiev will most likely get better deals with his leaner punches and superior technique. But if Smith can stay there, let go and simply refuse to walk away, we might be looking at a battle of attrition that the underdog can win.
It’s a war where, at the end of the day, I hope my favorites prevail but in that I can also see the possibility of a war.
One bet that I quite like is over 8.5 rounds at around -115 (20/23) offered at some shops. For a ring that’s less to worry about at a slightly lower price, over 7.5 rounds are available at some stores at around -160 (5/8).
This fight can be like two Mack trucks meeting in an alley with only one person passing through. It can be an exhausting, exhausting battle of attrition. If there’s a stop to this matchup, I’d expect it to come somewhere around the 1/8 or 9th round.
One of the two to win round 7-12 is not a bad look at -125 (4/5). And if each boxer gets used to the other’s strength, and the fight ends up in a lingering tagline, then “Distance – Yes” at 3/1 (+300) becomes a possibility.
Beterbiev to win in the distance is simply too high a price for me 1/3 (-300) even though this is the most likely outcome.
In the same program at the Garden, there was an exciting 10-round featherweight match that won the Olympic gold medal twice Robeisy Ramirez against the undefeated Abraham Nova. It’s been a step-by-step fight for Ramirez but he is clear favorite (1/5 at Betfred).
Ramirez was disappointing on his professional debut but since then, he’s looked like the boxer we thought he’d be. In his final match, the Cuban man put on his most dynamic performance to date when he stopped Eric Donovan of Ireland for three rounds.
Nova is a capable fighter and he has the advantage of height and reach. But Nova was wobbly in her last two battles. If Ramirez leaves his hand the way he did with Donovan, he could be forced to stop. I think “Distance – Zero” clause, given at about 2/1 (+200) At some stores, is worth considering.
Main image: Battle between Beterbiev (left) and Smith (right) tonight. Photo: Mikey Williams / Top Rank.
