War could shrink Ukraine’s economy 45% this year: NPR

A woman removes broken glass from a shop window after a bomb attack in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 23.

Vadim Ghirda / AP

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Vadim Ghirda / AP

A woman removes broken glass from a shop window after a bomb attack in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 23.

Vadim Ghirda / AP

One New update from World Bank measures the expected damage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the economies of both countries and developing countries in the region.

Economists say Ukraine’s economy could shrink 45.1% this year, while sanctions against Russia are expected to cut output by 11.2%.

“The Russian invasion is dealing a huge blow to the Ukrainian economy and it has caused enormous damage to infrastructure,” said Anna Bjerde, World Bank Vice President for Europe and China. Asia, said in a press release. “Ukraine needs immediate major financial support as the country is struggling to sustain its economy and the government is working to support Ukrainian citizens who are suffering and dealing with a situational situation. extreme situations.”

More broadly, the eurozone and Central Asian economies are now forecast to contract 4.1 percent this year – reversing the pre-war 3 percent growth forecast. The World Bank says Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Tajikistan are forecast to fall into recession this year, in addition to Russia and Ukraine.

The World Bank report notes that emerging and developing countries in the region have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, adding that “this will be the second wave of contractions.” for many years, and twice as large as the pandemic caused in 2020.”

According to the organization, the war has only heightened existing concerns about a global economic slowdown, rising debt and inflation, as well as a spike in poverty levels. The World Bank also warning last week slower growth and increased poverty in the Asia-Pacific region, citing the war in Ukraine and other economic shocks.

Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, the World Bank’s chief economist for Europe and Central Asia, said in a press release that the pandemic and war in Ukraine have once again demonstrated that crisis can “do years of decline in per capita income and development growth.”

She advised regional governments to prepare for the dispersion of trade in the region, remain focused on improving energy efficiency and strengthen their social safety nets to protect vulnerable people. most vulnerable – including refugees.

“The profound humanitarian crisis wrought by war is the most pronounced global concussion and will likely be one of the most enduring legacies of the conflict,” said the World Bank. World adds that support for refugee communities and their host countries will be particularly important.

More than 4.5 million people have fled Ukraine for asylum since Russia first invaded in late February, follow a tracker from the United Nations.

This story originally appeared in the Morning version live blogs.

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