A military truck bearing the “Z” symbol of the Russian invasion force was blown up in the town of Balakliya, which Ukrainian troops liberated over the weekend.
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Ukraine’s surprise counterattack in the northeastern part of the country has sent shockwaves through the Russian military, with military strategists suggesting that occupying forces are likely to be forced to withdraw from the entire region. around Kharkiv.
This vital region is home to Ukraine’s second largest city and is located close to the border with Russia. This should have made it easier for Russia to defend, but Ukraine’s Defense Ministry on Sunday said its forces were able to recapture dozens of towns and villages in the region in the past few days.
These include the strategically important town of Izyum, which Russia has used as a supply hub and base for its forces in the region, and Kupiansk, an important railway hub in the region.
The acquisition of territory for Ukraine was obtained after their forces launched a series of counterattacks in the northeast last week. The sudden move caught Russia off guard; The Kremlin has redeployed many troops to southern Ukraine for a much-anticipated Ukrainian counterattack there.
Instead, strategists now believe Ukraine planned to use Russia’s redeployment as an opportunity to redouble its efforts in the northeast of the country.
The matter of Kharkiv
Kharkiv lies 30 kilometers from the Russian border, just above the strategically important Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, home to two self-proclaimed, pro-Russian “republics”, in Donetsk and Luhansk.
However, despite such close proximity, Moscow’s forces have not been able to capture the city since they began their unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
Since the initial full invasion of Ukraine has been scaled back, with Russian forces withdrawing from the area around Kyiv in April, Russia has stated it wants to “liberate” Donbas.
As a result, the loss of important towns and villages in the Kharkiv region makes Russia’s hold on territory in Luhansk (which it claims to be fully occupied) and Donetsk (where it has made small strides in the season). summer) more vulnerable, and casts further doubt on Russia’s ability to achieve its goals in the Donbas.
For its part, Ukraine has repeatedly reiterated that it aims to regain all of its lost territory including Donbas and Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Strategists at the Institute for the Study of War noted on Sunday that, “Ukrainian leaders, however, discussed attacks in the south with much more fanfare, a success that left people speechless. Russia is confused about their intentions in Kharkiv Oblast. [province]. “
It noted that Ukraine carried out an “ingenious operation,” maximizing the impact of Western weapon systems such as HIMARS (U.S.-aided, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) to attack Russian ground lines of communication in both Kharkiv and Kherson.
A Russian armored vehicle seized by Ukrainian troops is taken out of Kharkiv on September 8, 2022.
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On Sunday, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry says counter-offensive is underwaywhile the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said the forces recovered 3,000 square kilometers (about 1,158 square miles) of territory occupied by Russia this month and is now pushing Russian forces back to the border with Ukraine.
“In the direction of Kharkiv, we began to advance not only south and east, but also north,” General Zaluzhny said, adding that Ukrainian forces are currently about 50 miles from the Russian border. kilometers (about 30 miles).
Russians ‘withdraw’
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told reporters that Russian troops stationed in Balakleya and Izyum had been redeployed in the direction of Donetsk to “increase efforts”. according to Russian state news agency Tass.
The British Ministry of Defense on Monday noted that Russian troops are likely retreating from much of the Kharkiv region, although resistance remains.
“In light of Ukraine’s advances, Russia may have ordered the withdrawal of troops from the entire occupied Kharkiv Oblast area west of the Oskil River.” The ministry said on Twitteradded that since the counterattacks began in earnest last Wednesday, “Ukraine has recaptured territory at least twice the size of Greater London.”
The letter ‘Z’, the symbol of Russian forces, and the inscription ‘ZSU’, which stands for the initials of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Cyrillic alphabet, are seen on a military vehicle during combat The Russo-Ukrainian war continues in Kharkiv, Ukraine on September 9, 2022.
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Strategists say that although Ukraine appears to have used Russia’s military redeployment to the south as an opportunity to strike in the northeast, its counterattack around Kherson to the south was not an attack that “pretends” or is designed to distract attention.
“Ukrainian forces are believed to have attacked and made many gains at several key locations on the West bank of the Dnipro River,” the Institute for the Study of War noted Sunday, adding that, “Ukraine has committed to Significant combat power and a substantial focus on the Western-provided Long-Range Precision System are on this axis, and it is unlikely to do so solely to attract Russian forces to the region. “
What happens next?
Military strategists are keen to point out that although Ukraine has been successful in its initial counter-offensive operations in both the northeast and the south of the country, the war is far from over.
Dmitry Gorenburg, senior research scientist at CNA security research and analysis organization, says that Russian commanders will be reluctant to withdraw their forces from occupied territory – even in an effort to preserve that force. He told CNBC this would be a “political black eye” for Moscow.
“It seems that the Russian forces have really exhausted their ability to make advances. They haven’t really gained any territory since the last push in Luhansk at the end of June, early July,” noted Gorenburg. On the other hand, Ukraine will likely make “continued efforts” to regain the territory, he added. “They see this as a long, gradual process.”
In assessing the situation, the British Ministry of Defense said that “the rapid successes of Ukraine have important implications for the overall design of Russia’s operations”.
“The already limited trust with which troops are deployed within Russia’s senior military leadership is likely to deteriorate further,” the ministry added.
According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine’s pressure on Russian forces in Kherson, combined with the rapid counterattack in Kharkiv, “put the Russians in a terrible dilemma of timing and space”. It said Russia could risk losing Luhansk, as well as having to withdraw from neighboring Donetsk.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin risks making a common but fatal mistake by waiting too long to order reinforcements to the Luhansk line, thereby affecting the defense of Kherson or the cessation of offensive operations. around Bakhmut [a city in the Donetsk region] and the City of Donetsk without putting troops in position to protect from continued Ukrainian attacks in Luhansk,” the ISW said.
“The Ukrainian campaign seems to aim to precisely present Putin with such a dilemma and benefit from almost every decision he makes.”
