The Week That Was: 2022-09-10 (September 10, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin. Thomas Huxley [H/t Jim Steele]
Number of the Week: 26,694 & 7,821 Megawatts
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: In climate studies, personal attacks on those who demonstrate deficiencies in the work of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers are all too common. As discussed below, a video of astrophysicist Willie Soon addressing some of these false accusations is now available.
Asian monsoon seasons frequently bring periods of drought or flooding. Past droughts have resulted in periods of severe famine, the likes of which are no longer occurring thanks to modern agriculture and carbon dioxide fertilization that have greatly increased crop yield. Jim Steele gives a clear presentation of the complex weather patterns that result in Asian floods and droughts.
The politically imposed energy transition from fossil fuels to wind and solar is a political delusion which is causing severe hardships to the less fortunate. The energy shock of this political delusion was made more severe by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the response to it. Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute addresses this problem and the possible role of North America if politicians permit it.
Michael Bloomberg defends some of his actions claiming that they were caused by an economic system called capitalism. However, he confuses capitalism with mercantilism, where government authorities provide political protection to favored merchants, punishing others.
The ill-named Inflation Reduction Act contained promises of great subsidies to solar and wind power with the stipulation that critical parts of these machines be produced in the US. As President Biden signed the bill promising great benefits to Americans, his administration was cancelling leases for the extraction of materials critical for the US construction of these machines.
Wind and solar power do not provide sustainable energy. Recent UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson found this out as he was replaced in office due to unrest in his party from increasing energy prices (the UK imports little from Russia). Germany is undergoing similar unrest. But the star of hypocrisy is California, which recently banned new gasoline automobiles by 2035, but was threatening black-outs this week because its electricity generation system cannot meet current consumption, much less a drastic increase in consumption from electric vehicles. Discussed below are details of the supply of electricity to California that seem to have eluded the politicians responsible for electric utilities.
John Robson brings attention to an electronic toy produced by the IPCC following its latest report (AR6, 2021). Ironically, as with IPCC reports, the toy has a basic deficiency.
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Ad Hominem (Personal) Attacks: Many defenders of the orthodox view that greenhouse gases are the principal cause of climate change are skilled in the use of logical fallacies such as ad hominem, criticizing the person rather than criticizing his position. Frequently, the criticisms are in the sources of funding the person receives, such as moneys from oil, tobacco, or chemical companies. All too often these attacks are without foundation, and evidence of such funding is lacking. But the lack of evidence makes no difference in the highly politicized climate world, and the attacker may be rewarded with a professorship at Harvard University.
In “The Weaponization of Science: Politics, Vilification, and the Climate Debate” Willie Soon posts seven video clips, accompanied with slides. The first video begins with a claim in the February 21, 2015, New York Times that Soon received $1.2 million from the fossil fuel industry. The false claim was quickly spread by mass media and repeated by politicians. It was never substantiated. Since 1991 Soon was employed by the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, which took charitable contributions from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation and the Southern Company, a public utility.
Claiming that Soon’s work was influenced by these charitable contributions is ridiculous. For 64 years Texaco sponsored the Metropolitan Opera’s Saturday afternoon broadcasts. Were the opera stars singing the praises of Texaco? No!
There are huge gaps in the reasoning by the IPCC that greenhouse gases dominate climate change. Like all planetary bodies, the earth loses heat through infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases interfere with (block) this heat loss but not evenly. There is a huge gap in the range of wavelengths where greenhouse gases do interfere with heat loss. For convenience, this gap is called an “atmospheric window.” For over twenty million years certain snakes, particularly pit vipers, have demonstrated this “atmospheric window” by distinguishing between background infrared radiation and the infrared radiation given off by warm bodied prey. Are we to believe that oil companies fund sidewinder rattlesnakes because they demonstrate a real hole in IPCC thinking? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and the August 27 TWTW.
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Changing Monsoons: Monsoons have been changing ever since the Indian Subcontinent rammed into the Asian Continent due to Continental Drift interrupting the flow of water from the western Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which is now going through a narrow passage north of Australia resulting in a buildup of warm waters. No doubt, this event changed the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Probably, the buildup of warm waters increased the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its influence on climate. Changes in monsoonal activity was a problem for the Harappan civilization in the Indus Valley and Plateau about 5300 to about 3300 years ago. The Pakistani Government absurdly blames changing monsoons on carbon dioxide caused-climate change.
In a clear presentation, ecologist Jim Steele shows there is nothing new about the recent floods in Pakistan. The last one occurred in 2010, another La Niña year as is 2022. Steele goes through the complex weather patterns set up by the changing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its natural El Niño / La Niña phases which are further complicated by changing phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and even further complicated by changing phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Due to the nature of the subject, the presentation is complex but informative. Severe droughts and floods have occurred many times in the past and will occur in the future. Resilience is the key and modern industrial agriculture is an important component for resilience.
Of course, many green institutions are inadvertently destroying resilience with drastic consequences for humanity, for which they avoid responsibility. As Steele states in concluding his presentation:
“Most people don’t have the time or background to take a deep dive into climate science and uncover its truths. But there are several catch phrases that should alert everyone that it is not the science, manipulative catastrophic narratives that are preying on your sincere concerns.
So, beware when you hear or read
You are guilty of climate racism
You are guilty of promoting climate inequities
You are guilty of eating meat because cow farts are bad for the climate
You are guilty of driving a gasoline powered vehicle because they cause more wildfires & heatwaves
You are guilty of creating a climate crisis So, just give us your money!
To be clear, I am not suggesting that you shouldn’t voluntarily donate to humanitarian aid for flood victims.
I am simply arguing, when you are being falsely shamed and berated with any of the above arguments suggesting it is your fault for Pakistan’s flood, it is very likely that the media and politicians are obscuring the true science of natural climate change and trying to manipulate you.
Science and our democracy depend on interactions within a diverse array of good critical thinkers, and from such interactions the best solutions will emerge. So, please shun mindless group think.
Instead, embrace renowned scientist, Thomas Huxley’s advice Skepticism is the highest of duties and blind faith the one unpardonable sin.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Energy Realism? The Russian invasion of Ukraine made clear that wind and solar are not ready for prime time and European Union dependence on Russian gas is a grave political mistake. Senior Fellow Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute produced a lengthy paper highlighting the inadequacies of wind and solar combined with storage and the fact that costs are escalating. It is time for mature critical thinking not teen-age deluded thinking. The executive summary of Mill’s paper “The ‘Energy Transition’ Delusion: A Reality Reset” states:
“Global economies are facing a potential energy shock—the third such shock of the past half century. Energy costs and security have returned to center stage, as has the realization that the world remains deeply dependent on reliable supplies of petroleum, natural gas, and coal. And all this has arrived during an inflation itself partially the result of higher energy prices that are raising production and transportation costs across industries.
In these circumstances, policymakers are beginning to grasp the enormous difficulty of replacing even a mere 10% share of global hydrocarbons—the share supplied by Russia—never mind the impossibility of trying to replace all of society’s use of hydrocarbons with solar, wind, and battery (SWB) technologies. Two decades of aspirational policies and trillions of dollars in spending, most of it on SWB tech, have not yielded an “energy transition” that eliminates hydrocarbons. Regardless of climate-inspired motivations, it is a dangerous delusion to believe that spending yet more, and more quickly, will do so. The lessons of the recent decade make it clear that SWB technologies cannot be surged in times of need, are neither inherently “clean” nor even independent of hydrocarbons and are not cheap.
The only path to significantly lower energy prices while maintaining vibrant economies—and unlinking them from Russian oil and natural gas—is to radically increase the production of hydrocarbons. The U.S. holds the greatest potential for achieving this outcome, and without government subsidies. On the contrary: increasing the production of these energy sources would generate government revenues, increase U.S. geopolitical soft power, and, in due course, save the world trillions of dollars.
America’s hydrocarbon-centric industries could, if unleashed, replicate the unprecedented growth in oil and natural gas production over the past 15 years. That growth resulted in the U.S. becoming the world’s biggest producer and a major exporter of both. The crucial question now is whether America has the political will to forge an energy path based on the lessons learned and the urgencies of the new geopolitical landscape.”
In the UK, the party in control of Parliament elects the Prime Minister. This week the Parliament elected Liz Truss who appears to realize that an impending October rate increase for electricity of 80% to consumers will be intolerable. She has moved to cap the price consumers must pay, but not the price suppliers receive. There are some suppliers who are making true “windfall profits” from the UK energy system. In addition, the new Prime Minister appears to realize that hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling may go a long way in solving the UK’s current energy problems. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Energy Issues – Non-US.
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Confused Thinking? In 1776, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith was published. The book argued that a system of private enterprise seeking to improve personal well-being is more beneficial to the public than the current system in Britain called Mercantilism in which wealth was considered limited and fixed, and one needed to obtain favors from the political powerful to advance.
[In 1759, The Theory of Moral Sentiments by Smith was published. This earlier work described the principles of “human nature” as understood by Smith and other leading philosophers including David Hume. This provided the philosophical foundation for the Wealth of Nations. Later Marx derisively called the system of free enterprise “Capitalism” for those who seemed to benefit the most from it.]
The Attorneys General of 19 States have argued that the current fad of considering environmental, social and governance [ESG] issues in making investments violates laws of fiduciary responsibility. Fiduciaries must seek the highest yield for their clients and not make investments based on personal interests.
The wealthy former Mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg argues that these AGs need a course in Capitalism. It may be that Michael Bloomberg needs a course on private enterprise and fiduciary responsibility. See link under Defending the Orthodoxy and Article # 1.
Political Games: Senator Joe Manchin announced support for the ill-named Inflation Reduction Act after he made a side deal with Senator Schumer, the Senate leader. Part of the deal was to restrict timeframes needed for approvals of critical infrastructure, particularly pipelines for oil and gas (the safest ways to transport these fuels). Currently, the conditions are in a bill called a continuing resolution, needed to keep the government functioning by extending its funding. The bill needs to be enacted by October 1. By then, we shall see if Senator Schumer can deliver on his promises. See links under The Political Games Continue
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Washington Hypocrisy: An article in Real Clear Energy discusses how a proposed mining project under review at the Departments of the Interior and Agriculture, at the direction of President Biden, had its leases arbitrarily canceled, even though they have been held since 1966. The project was subsequently black-listed. The minerals from the proposed project are needed for wind and solar power which is subsidized by Washington. See links under Washington’s Control of Energy.
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California Delusions: California has a Zero Net Energy Plan declaring:
“All new residential construction will be zero net energy (ZNE) by 2020.
All new commercial construction will be ZNE by 2030
50% of commercial buildings will be retrofit to ZNE by 2030
50% of new major renovations of state buildings will be ZNE by 2025.”
Further, political appointees have banned the sale of new gasoline powered cars by 2035. Now, the question is, where will it get the electricity needed for civilization to function? On September 6, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) warned of a blackout and asked consumers to reduce energy use and not charge electric vehicles. The governor promptly blamed an unprecedented heatwave, but the heat was not unusual for the southwest US. Further, the legislature declared it is responsible for electric utilities, thus private corporations cannot be blamed.
With heavy subsidies for electric vehicles and decarbonization of the state grid, which is dependent on natural gas for 32% of its average electricity power, there are no options. The UK appears to realize that green dreams are over, but California does not. See links under California Dreaming and https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/electrical-energy/demand-side-management/energy-efficiency/zero-net-energy
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More IPCC Nonsense: In discussing precipitation, John Robson brings attention to the IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas: Regional synthesis, According to the section “About:”
The Interactive Atlas regional information supports the assessment done in the AR6-WGI chapters, the Technical Summary (TS) and the Summary for Policymakers (SPM), allowing for flexible temporal and spatial analyses of trends and changes in key atmospheric and oceanic variables, extreme indices, and climatic impact-drivers (CIDs), as obtained from several global and regional observational and model simulated datasets used in the report. A description of the tool is provided in Section Atlas.2 and technical information (and resources) are available in the GitHub repository
TWTW was curious to know what the IPCC uses for atmospheric temperatures. The description says:
“Observations for recent-past periods: Three gridded global datasets for air temperature (CRU TS version 4.04, Berkeley Earth, HadCRUT5) …”
Further:
Key variables from the atmosphere (daily mean, minimum and maximum surface temperatures and precipitation) …” [Boldface added]
Other than use the word “atmosphere” the IPCC ignores that we have over 40 years of comprehensive measurements of atmospheric temperature trends and over 40 years of the effects of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and decades of laboratory experiments on the effect of greenhouse gases.
The IPCC is incompetent and deceitful!
See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
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Number of the Week: 26,694 & 7,821 Megawatts According to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) demand trends, on September 6 total demand was 51,424 megawatts at 5 pm and 43,986 megawatts at 9 pm. At 9 pm natural gas supplied 26,694 megawatts (61%) of the 9 pm demand and imports from other states supplied 7,821 megawatts (18%). Solar power was no longer generating, and batteries were down to 335 megawatts. California is suing to prevent a pipeline from expanding. The gas comes from Canada. Where will California get the electricity it needs to keep the lights on and the cloud operating? See links under Litigation Issues and http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.html.
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (VI). Meridional transport as the main climate change driver
By Javier Vinós & Andy May, Climate Etc. Sep 4, 2022
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The Weaponization of Science: Politics, Vilification, and the Climate Debate
By Willie Soon, CERES, April 11, 2022
https://www.ceres-science.com/post/the-weaponization-of-science-politics-vilification-and-the-climate-debate-dr-willie-soon
Video short clips and slides
Are Pakistan’s Floods Your Fault and You Should Pay?
By Jim Steele, A Walk On The Natural Side, Sep 7, 2022
Text: https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2022/09/are-pakistans-floods-your-fault-and-you.html
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMBY1-ceo6Y
[SEPP Comment: A problem faced by the Harappan civilization about 5300 to about 3300 years ago. Caused by CO2 emissions from North America.]
The “Energy Transition” Delusion: A Reality Reset
By Mark P. Mills, Manhattan Institute, Aug 30, 2022
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/the-energy-transition-delusion
[SEPP Comment: Unlike the energy shock of the 1970s, in which rising energy prices were intensified by OPEC cutting off supplies to the West, this energy crisis is largely the result of decisions by western governments to punish energy producers, worsened by Russia responding to sanctions imposed by the West on it for invading Ukraine. The world has no shortage of reliable petroleum, natural gas, and coal.]
This Is A Profound Evil–Neil Oliver
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 4, 2022
“Stand up for humanity” “The lights are going out.”
[SEPP Comment: Malthusian ideology — Having children is sinful?]
Anti-Energy Nihilism Behind Economic Crisis
Is it a coincidence that the people who said Western civilization was unsustainable are making it so?
By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, Sep 6, 2022
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/anti-energy-nihilism-behind-economic?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Science returns to the Middle Ages with a vengeance
By Anthony J. Sadar, Cornwall Alliance, Sep 9, 2022
JAYARAJ: Climate Change Transformed India Into An Agricultural Superpower — Just Ask My Grandparents
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Sep 6, 2022
“According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, ‘India is the world’s largest producer of milk, pulses, and jute, and ranks as the second largest producer of rice, wheat, sugarcane, groundnut, vegetables, fruits, and cotton. It is also one of the leading producers of spices, livestock, and plantation crops.’” [2021-22 crop year]
Pakistan Floods–Is A Third Really Submerged?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 5, 2022
“It is a sad fact of life that Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to the weather. During the global cooling of the 1960s and 70s, monsoon failures were commonplace across the Sub-Continent. Certainly, in India they are always delighted to get more rainfall than unusual during the monsoon, as that means plentiful crops, even though floods regularly occur as well.
The IPCC atlas on drought in Europe
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 7, 2022
On Climate Change, Republicans Need a Crash Course in Capitalism
Red-state lawmakers are increasingly trying to interfere in private firms’ decision-making. They’re making a terrible mistake.
By Michael R. Bloomberg, Bloomberg, Sep 6, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-06/on-climate-change-republicans-need-a-crash-course-in-capitalism?fromMostRead=true
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Announcing the 1st Place Winner of the WUWT Essay Contest, Student Division
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 7, 2022
Second Place Winner WUWT Student Essay Contest
Not Identified, WUWT, Sep 9, 2022
Government must decide: Save the economy or save Net Zero
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Sep 8, 2022
Link to 2-page report (factsheet): Fixing the energy price crisis
By Gordon Hughes and Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Sep 8, 2022
No, the Inflation Reduction Act Won’t Cut Carbon Emissions By 40%
By Ethan Brown, Real Clear Energy, Sep 5, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/05/no_the_inflation_reduction_act_wont_cut_carbon_emissions_by_40_851555.html
After Paris!
Biden Needs to Declare a Climate Emergency Despite the Deal
By Maya Golden-Krasner and Jean Su, Newsweek, Sep 7, 2022
https://www.newsweek.com/biden-needs-declare-climate-emergency-despite-deal-opinion-1739572
“When it comes to climate change, the greatest threat humanity has ever faced, the Inflation Reduction Act can’t be an excuse for complacency. It must be the start of a furious race to protect people and our planet. In the leadup to the COP27 U.N. climate conference in November, this is also a critical moment for Biden to show the world that the largest historical emitter is all-hands-on deck.”
[SEPP Comment: The attorneys at the Center for Biological Diversity are clueless about the limits of influence of greenhouse gases on temperatures and changing weather. China emits more than twice that emitted by the US. Will it join?]
Change in US Administrations
Yellen will vow to ‘rid’ US from ‘dependence on fossil fuels’ in Detroit speech
By Tobias Burns, The Hill, Sep 7, 2022
Free stuff from the Inflation “Reduction” Act discriminates against the poor!
By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 8, 2022
https://www.cfact.org/2022/09/08/free-stuff-from-the-inflation-reduction-act-discriminates-against-the-poor/
Biden climate adviser Gina McCarthy leaving White House, John Podesta joining staff
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 2, 2022
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Fossil Fuels are the Greenest Energy Sources
By Indur Goklany, CO2 Coalition, Aug 30, 2022
“Fossil fuel combustion has increased the amount of carbon dioxide available to green the earth. This has contributed the major share of the approximately 34% increase in the earth’s GPP [Gross Primary Production] that has occurred since 1900, which has literally greened the earth.”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Europe’s Reaction To The Energy Crisis Is Turning Into A ‘Ponzi Scheme’
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Sep 06, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Reaction-To-The-Energy-Crisis-Is-Turning-Into-A-Ponzi-Scheme.html
U.S. envoy Kerry urges China to resume talks to avoid climate crisis
By Staff, Reuters, Sep 6, 2022
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-envoy-kerry-urges-china-resume-talks-avoid-climate-crisis-2022-09-06/
Arizona Democrat says California ‘failing to do its part’ on Colorado River crisis
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 6, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
Climate scientists & politics: Simpleton versus wicked scientists
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 6, 2022
Science, Policy, and Evidence
A God or a Government? Labor [Party] legislates climate fantasy and tech inventions too, all by 2030
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 9, 2022
Measurement Issues — Surface
Pre-1970s ‘Global’ Sea Surface Temp Measurements Are No More Reliable Or Accurate Than Guessing
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 8, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Discussed in the 2008 NIPCC report.]
Uncertainty Estimates for Routine Temperature Data Sets Part Two.
By Geoff Sherrington, WUWT, Sep 6, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Report
By Staff Earth System Science Center, UAH, August 2022, Sep 8, 2022
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/AUGUST2022/202208_Map.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/AUGUST2022/202208_Bar.png
Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/AUGUST2022/GTR_202208Aug_1.pdf
Changing Weather
Heating With Green Energies May Come With Brutal Reality Check… Scientists Warned Of Global Cooling
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 7, 2022
Yes, It’s Hot—It’s Summer!
By David Legates, Cornwall Alliance, Sep 7, 2022
That was then, drought edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 7, 2022
Link to paper: Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient
By Mathew Koll Roxy, et al. Nature Communications, June 16, 2015
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8423
Link to new article: Pakistan floods are ‘a monsoon on steroids’, warns UN chief
By Simon Fraser, BBC, Aug 30, 2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62722117
From Matt Ridley: “’The main cause of Pakistan’s floods is deforestation. “At the time of independence, Pakistan’s total forest cover was 33%. By 2015 it had dropped to 5%.’ [Asia Times] Obsession with climate change blinds people to more serious man-made environmental issues.”
California Record Heat Of September 1913
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 8, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/california-record-heat-of-september-1913/
1917 Climate Refugees
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 5, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/1917-climate-refugees/
California drought raises red flags for agriculture
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 9, 2022
Changing Climate
A 2,000-year temperature history of the mountainous West Eifel volcanic field of Germany
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 7, 2022
From the CO2Science Archive
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Will Greenland Ever Be “Green” Again?
By David Legates, Cornwall Alliance, Sep 6, 2022
Polar Opposite: Polar Bears Require Thin Ice Or Open Water To Survive
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 5, 2022
Link to paper: Polar Bear Fossil and Archaeological Records from the Pleistocene and Holocene in Relation to Sea Ice Extent and Open Water Polynyas
By Susan J. Crockford, Open Quaternary, May 6, 2022
https://www.openquaternary.com/articles/10.5334/oq.107/
Canadian Arctic Archipelago Blocked By Thick Multi-Year Ice…August Arctic Sea Ice Rebounds
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 3, 2022
[SEPP Comment: No Northwest Passage this year?]
Fact check: Polar bears breaking through thin ice is not evidence of climate change, it’s a drone chase
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 3, 2022
Doomsday Journalism
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 7, 2022
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/doomsday-journalism-2/
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/doomsday-journalism/
Lowering Standards
What The BBC Did Not Tell You About Hornsea 2
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 3, 2022
“All of the electricity generated by Hornsea 2 will be sold by its parent company, Orsted A/S, the Danish state owned company, formerly known as DONG.
“Their Half Year Accounts show they have been selling all of their electricity generated at an average of £219/MWh this year, up from £82/MWh last year. In a full year, this price rise means a windfall profit of £4.5bn, most of which will accrue from UK operations.
“But neither the BBC nor Carbon Brief will ever tell you this.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Glacier that could raise sea level by several feet ‘holding on by its fingernails’: researcher
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 6, 2022
Link to paper: Rapid retreat of Thwaites Glacier in the pre-satellite era
By Alastair G. C. Graham, et al, Nature Geoscience, Sep 5, 2022
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01019-9#additional-information
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
David King’s 10,000 Heatwave Deaths Never Happened
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 5, 2022
“Former Government Chief Scientist Sir David King has told LBC that up to 10,000 excess deaths have to be anticipated during Monday and Tuesday’s heatwave when a new UK record temperature could be set.”
Homewood: “Quite why anybody gives airtime to David King is a mystery. He has been an utterly discredited little man for many years now.”
There we go again
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 7, 2022
” Zombie ice! We are all going to die and then be undead! By being turned into a brain slushie or something.”
“In describing their study on The Conversation, another co-author Alun Hubbard of the University of Tromsø does the there-is-no-natural-climate-variability dance, ‘For the past 6,000 years Greenland, like the rest of the planet, has benefited from a mild and stable climate with an ice sheet in equilibrium – until recently.’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
A Culture Of Faith
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 7, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/a-culture-of-faith/
Video
Climate change overwhelming California power grid
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Sep 6, 2022
Gazprom Releases a Sinister Video Taunting Europe Over Winter Gas Shortages
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 6, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
We are all living in Greta’s world now–Ross Clark
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 3, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Another columnist who confuses teen-age angst with critical thinking.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
There might be a more obvious explanation
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 7, 2022
‘Canada’s rote-woke PM recently attributed incidents of rising incivility in Canadian politics to ‘the pandemic, increasing anxiety because of climate change, transformations of our economy, um, rise in mental health and addiction problems’. Not soaring inflation, gas prices, rising interest rates or the energy crisis now ravaging Europe, which seems to be coming to Canada. No, you see according to a group called Clean Prosperity, ‘Canadians know climate action will drive economic prosperity’. Despite the fact that it hasn’t so far, indeed it has done the opposite.”
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Believing is seeing
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 7, 2022
“So it is that here in Canada, a federal task force is proposing mandatory flood insurance even for homes that don’t need it because everyone needs it even if they don’t.”
Fed vice chair says bank will launch pilot climate risk analysis next year
By Sylvan Lane, The Hill, Sep 9, 2022
U.S. Army steps up efforts to go green as risks from climate change rise
By Natalie Brand, CBS New, Aug 31, 2022
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-army-steps-up-efforts-to-go-green-climate-change/
“Bolstering energy efficiency and resilience is particularly top of mind at Fort George G. Meade in Maryland, which houses U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency.”
“The Army’s Climate Strategy includes building a microgrid on every base by 2035. The service is targeting 2030 for a 50% reduction in net greenhouse gas pollution and aims to get to zero emissions by 2050.”
[SEPP Comment: We will run our defense system on solar power? Will night attacks be prohibited?]
Questioning European Green
Update On Europe’s Self-Inflicted Energy Crisis
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 4, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-9-4-update-on-europes-self-inflicted-energy-crisis
“It goes on and on from there. And of course, if they continue on the Net Zero path, this is only the beginning. It will only get worse and worse as time goes on. They have no clue as to how to make a mostly wind/solar energy system work to deliver power 24/365 for a modern economy.”
21 Million German Households, Industry Suffer Body Blow As Green Energy Scheme Disintegrates
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 6, 2022
European Leaders Cling to Green Fantasy as Citizens Suffer
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Sep 7, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/07/european_leaders_cling_to_green_fantasy_as_citizens_suffer_852170.html
Modern-day Marie Antoinette Says You Cannot Even Have Cake
By Duggan Flanakin, Cornwall Alliance, Sep 8, 2022
Liz Truss To Cap The Wholesale Price Of Gas
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 6, 2022
Energy Pain: The richest countries in the world may not eat hot meals, people start burning their bills in the street
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 3, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Circular Economy: A Return to Soviet-Style Five-Year Plans
By Mikko Paunio, Real Clear Energy, Sep 5, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/05/the_circular_economy_a_return_to_soviet-style_five-year_plans_851567.html
The Democrats’ green agenda is hurting Californians
By Joel Kotkin, Unherd, Sep 2, 2022
https://unherd.com/thepost/the-democrats-green-agenda-is-hurting-californians/
Some Ohm Truths About the Great Green Fantasy
By Peter Smith, Quadrant, Sep 6, 2022
Funding Issues
Questionable Climate Scenarios for Central Bankers
Are the climate scenarios used to assess global financial risk of climate change fit for purpose?
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Sep 8, 2022
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/questionable-climate-scenarios-for?utm_source=email
“The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) might just be the most important global finance institution that most people have never heard of. The NGFS is an organization comprised of the world’s leading central bankers, representing most of the world’s GDP. The NGFS states that its aim is to ‘help strengthening (sic) the global response required to meet the goals of the Paris agreement and to enhance the role of the financial system to manage risks and to mobilize capital for green and low-carbon investments in the broader context of environmentally sustainable development. To this end, the Network defines and promotes best practices to be implemented within and outside of the Membership of the NGFS and conducts or commissions analytical work on green finance.’”
[SEPP Comment: A corrupted finance institution!]
Green Tories fear Truss won’t live up to Boris’ net zero plans
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 6, 2022
“If the Green Tories are right, then Liz Truss is certainly moving in the right direction!”
More than 70 House Democrats join push against Manchin’s permitting reform
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 9, 2022
Schumer in tough spot over Manchin promise
By Alexander Bolton, Aris Folley and Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 8, 2022
Manchin says leadership pledged permitting reform in stopgap funding bill
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 7, 2022
Was the Climate Law a Win for Environmental Justice? It’s Complicated
The Inflation Reduction Act dedicates billions to the issue, but some advocates remain skeptical.
By Brentin Mock, Bloomberg, Aug 30, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-08-31/citylab-daily-what-environmental-justice-advocates-think-of-the-climate-law
Oregon joins Western states in opposing more natural gas from Canadian pipeline
Pipeline runs from the Canada-Idaho border to Malin, a town in southern Oregon’s Klamath County
By Alex Baumhardt, Idaho Capital Sun, Aug 31, 2022
“Natural gas, primarily made of the greenhouse gas methane, is a main contributor to global warming.
“Methane traps heat in the atmosphere and, when it’s burned, produces the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, which also traps heat. Methane traps about 30 times as much heat as carbon dioxide and sticks around longer, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.”
[SEPP Comment: Ignorance of the influence of greenhouse gases on temperatures by the EPA and the lawyers.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA denies Cheniere Energy’s request for LNG pollution waiver
By Staff, AP, Sep 6, 2022
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/epa-denies-cheniere-energys-request-for-lng-pollution-waiver-01662507575
[SEPP Comment: Will the EPA stop wetlands from emitting marsh gas?]
Windfall Profits For Generators Running At £43 Billion A Year
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 7, 2022
“Although rising international prices for natural gas have triggered the massive rise in wholesale electricity prices in the last year or so, they are only directly responsible for part of that rise.
“As I have explained before, it is usually gas-fired generation that sets the wholesale price of electricity, which in August averaged £382/MWh:”
Russia turns off the tap “indefinitely”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 4, 2022
Russia Is Now Producing LNG Near The Shuttered Nord Stream Pipeline
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Sep 06, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Is-Now-Producing-LNG-Near-The-Shuttered-Nord-Stream-Pipeline.html
Britain’s New Prime Minister Has A $150 Billion Plan To Freeze Energy Bills
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Sep 06, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Britains-New-Prime-Minister-Has-A-150-Billion-Plan-To-Freeze-Energy-Bills.html
Energy Price Freeze Announced
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 8, 2022
Climate change tsar is hauled over the coals after warning Liz Truss against lifting fracking ban amid energy crisis
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 8, 2022
“The Government’s climate change tsar was told he needs to ‘live in the real world’ after he warned Liz Truss against lifting the fracking moratorium despite the energy crisis.
“Lord Deben said approving fracking would have no impact on energy prices – and urged her to focus on renewables instead.”
Energy Issues — US
Canada invokes pipeline treaty with U.S. over Wisconsin Line 5 dispute
By Ismail Shakil, Yahoo Finance, Aug 29, 2022
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-invokes-1977-pipeline-treaty-192117031.html
[SEPP Comment: The treaty was approved by the Senate and has the force of law in the US.]
https://www.congress.gov/treaty-document/95th-congress/6?s=1&r=597
General Notice: 2022 Virginia Energy Plan Public Feedback
By Staff, VA Department of Energy, July 21 to Sep 16, 2022
https://townhall.virginia.gov/L/comments.cfm?GeneralNoticeid=2442
Virginia and Climate Change – Separating fact from fiction
By Patrick Michaels, et al, CO2 Coalition, Sep 6, 2022
The Latest from the Experts on New York’s Climate Act Implementation
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Sep 8, 2022
“Unfortunately, the Climate Action Council has not confronted reliability issues raised by New York agencies responsible for keeping the lights on.”
Pennsylvania’s Utility Disconnections Spike Amid Energy Affordability Crisis
By Doug Mastriano, Real Clear Energy, Sep 08, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/08/pennsylvanias_utility_disconnections_spike_amid_energy_affordability_crisis_852288.html
[SEPP Comment: The candidate for governor brings out that the irresponsible governor basks in his green dreams while the public suffers.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Bring More Reality and Less Rhetoric to Biden’s Domestic Clean-Energy Mandate
By Mark Compton & Pete Stauber, Real Clear Energy, Sep 06, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/06/bring_more_reality_and_less_rhetoric_to_bidens_domestic_clean-energy_mandate_852033.html
To Bolster Fuel Supplies in the Northeast, End Talk of Banning Exports and Look to the Jones Act
By Christopher Guith, Real Clear Energy, Sep 06, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/06/to_bolster_fuel_supplies_in_the_northeast_end_talk_of_banning_exports_and_look_to_the_jones_act_852007.html
“Longstanding political opposition to pipelines that could connect the Northeast to energy markets has resulted in severe capacity constraints for both liquid fuels and natural gas, effectively making New York and New England an energy island where shortfalls must be met by ships instead of pipes. “
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
A ‘coalition of the drilling’ can starve Putin’s petrodollars
By Oliver McPherson-Smith, The Hill, Sep 10, 2022
Return of King Coal?
Is coal ‘better for the climate’ than LNG?
By Will Owen, World Coal, Apr 6, 2022
https://www.worldcoal.com/coal/06042022/is-coal-better-for-the-climate-than-lng/
Link to paper: ‘Climate Impacts’ of Fossil Fuels in Today’s Energy Systems (Der „Klimaeffekt“ fossiler Brennstoffe in den heutigen Energiesystemen)
By Lars Schernikau and William Smith, Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, revised, June 20, 2022
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3968359
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Renewable Energy by Country, 2022
By Staff, World Population Review, Accessed Sep 9, 2022
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/renewable-energy-by-country
What a big footprint you have
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 7, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Biden administration aims to make geothermal energy ‘widespread’
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 8, 2022
“In a statement on Thursday, the Energy Department said it hopes to cut the costs of geothermal energy systems by 90 percent by 2035.”
[SEPP Comment: The term “geothermal energy” has taken on a new meaning not related to geothermal hotspots. When heat pumps refrigerate the ground to extract heat to transfer into the house, that is now called “geothermal energy.”]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Automobile “Expert” Warns Skyrocketing Electricity Prices Risk Strangling Shift To E-Mobility
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 4, 2022
EVs Dearer To Run Than Petrol Now
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 8, 2022
Honda: Lithium-Ion EV’s Won’t Reach Price Parity With Gasoline Cars
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, Aug 31, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Honda-Lithium-Ion-EVs-Wont-Reach-Price-Parity-With-Gasoline-Cars.html
California Passes Aggressive Climate Legislation
By Staff, Institute for Energy Research, Sep 6, 2022
“California is spending $54 billion over five years on climate: around $6 billion for electric vehicles; over $8 billion to decarbonize the state’s electrical grid, which is dependent on natural gas for 32 percent of its power; nearly $15 billion to improve public transit; and over $5 billion to reduce the risk of wildfires and for drought resilience programs.”
Another Round Of Rolling Blackouts In California
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 6, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-9-6-another-round-of-rolling-blackouts-in-california
“Nobody seems to have figured out that you can cover the state with solar panels, and you will still get zero electricity from them after the sun goes down at night. Could they really be this stupid? Yes.”
Atlas Shrugged in California: “Green” Electricity vs. Human Comfort and Welfare
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Sep 7, 2022
CPUC ‘Emergency Load Reduction Program’: Energy Statism hits Home
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 6, 2022
Environmental Industry
Environmentalists Petition EPA to Ban Natural Gas Use in Buildings
By Mark Krebs, Master Resource, Sep 9, 2022
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Everybody knows: prairie heat waves are getting worse
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 7, 2022
NC solar power company faces investigation, lawsuits and hundreds of customer complaints
Consumers claim misleading sales tactics and shoddy installation are costing them a fortune for nothing in return.
By David Hodges, WBTV, Charlotte, Sep 6, 2022
https://www.wbtv.com/2022/09/06/nc-solar-power-company-faces-investigation-lawsuits-hundreds-customer-complaints/
Miami Drowning
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 7, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/09/miami-drowning-2/
Then they came for the lawn
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 7, 2022
Vancouver’s New Virtue Signalling Fire Engine–Useless, But At Least It Won’t Wake The Neighbours Up!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 7, 2022
“Well, the new e-truck will cost $300,000 more than a comparable diesel model, pump 40 per cent less water and have such a short range (30 km) because of its enormous weight that it will have to have backup diesel power in case it runs out of juice on the way to a blaze.”
Why the Biden Administration, Republicans, and United Nations all Support Renewable Wood Energy
By Jason Eberstein, Real Clear Energy, Sep 2, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/09/02/why_the_biden_administration_republicans_and_united_nations_all_support_renewable_wood_energy_851548.html
[SEPP Comment: Denude the mountains, make views from Skyline Drive clear again.]
ARTICLES
1. ESG Can’t Square With Fiduciary Duty
State attorneys general issue a strong warning to investment managers and retirement fund trustees.
By Jed Rubenfeld and William P. Barr, WSJ, Sept. 6, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/esg-cant-square-with-fiduciary-duty-blackrock-vanguard-state-stree-the-big-three-violations-china-conflict-of-interest-investors-11662496552?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
TWWTW Summary: The article begins:
“Nineteen state attorneys general wrote a letter last month to BlackRock CEO Laurence D. Fink. They warned that BlackRock’s environmental, social and governance investment policies appear to involve ‘rampant violations’ of the sole interest rule, a well-established legal principle. The sole interest rule requires investment fiduciaries to act to maximize financial returns, not to promote social or political objectives. Last week Attorneys General Jeff Landry and Todd Rokita of Louisiana and Indiana, respectively, went further. Each issued a letter warning his state pension board that ESG investing is likely a violation of fiduciary duty.
The Louisiana and Indiana opinions didn’t make headlines but have seismic implications: They suggest that state pension-fund board members, investment staff and investment advisers may be liable if they continue allocating funds to ESG-promoting asset managers such as BlackRock.
Mr. Landry’s and Mr. Rokita’s warnings are salvos in a fight numerous states are waging against the ESG policies promoted by the Big Three asset managers—BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street. But they go significantly further in two major respects.
First, Mr. Landry’s guidance spotlights potentially explosive, undisclosed conflicts of interest in the Big Three’s ‘selective’ promotion of ESG criteria against U.S. companies but not Chinese companies. According to Mr. Landry, in 2021 BlackRock exercised its proxy voting rights as Exxon’s second-largest shareholder to lead ‘an activist campaign that forced Exxon to cut oil production,’ without disclosing that many of the ‘oil fields dropped by Exxon’ are ‘poised to be acquired by PetroChina’ and that BlackRock is ‘one of PetroChina’s largest investors.’
Mr. Landry has a point. BlackRock has an enormous stake in PetroChina, reporting holdings of between one trillion and two trillion shares, representing between 5% and 10% ownership, from 2018-22. If Mr. Landry’s allegations are correct, BlackRock’s ESG-based promotion of oil production cutbacks at Exxon might have been a staggering conflict of interest.
Second, both Mr. Landry’s and Mr. Rokita’s letters are warnings to public pension-plan trustees, who are under the same fiduciary duties that BlackRock is. Mr. Rokita’s opinion concludes that public pension boards are ‘prohibited’ from retaining asset managers who ‘make investments, set investment strategies, engage with portfolio companies, or exercise voting rights appurtenant to investments based on ESG considerations,’ which the Big Three all do.
This conclusion is logical. If BlackRock is violating its fiduciary duty, so is a pension-plan board member or investment staffer who knowingly invests with BlackRock. It’s well-settled law, as the Second Circuit Court of Appeals has stated, that where a ‘fiduciary was aware of a risk to the fund . . . he may be held liable for failing to investigate’ or for not ‘protecting the fund from that risk.’
By putting pension trustees on notice that the Big Three are ‘likely’ violating their fiduciary duties, Messrs. Landry and Rokita are warning that continued investment with those firms may subject pension board members, staffers and registered investment advisers to personal liability.”
*********************
2. The Coming Global Crisis of Climate Policy
As central banks obsess over far-off dangers, a tsunami of energy-price bankruptcies approaches.
By Joseph C. Sternberg, WSJ, Sept. 8, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-global-crisis-of-climate-policy-europe-germany-energy-prices-bankruptcy-winter-subsidies-borrowing-green-nuclear-11662651070?mod=opinion_featst_pos3
TWTW Summary: The article begins:
“Let’s come right out and say it: Anyone who still thinks climate change is a greater threat than climate policy to financial stability deserves to be exiled to a peat-burning yurt in the wilderness.
Lest you’ve forgotten, the world’s central banks and other regulators are in the middle of a major push to introduce various forms of climate stress testing into their oversight. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank, among others, want to know how global temperature variations a century hence might weigh on Citi’s or Barclays’ or Deutsche Bank’s capital and risk weightings today. The fad is for quantifying, with preposterous faux-precision, the costs of reinsuring flood risks, or fire, or the depressed corporate profits of a dystopian hotter future.
Well, if you seek ‘climate risk’ to financial stability, look around you. It has arrived, although in exactly the opposite manner to what our current crop of eco-financiers predicted. Europe’s plight tells a tale that could become all too familiar in the U.S. soon.
The U.K. may be facing a wave of business bankruptcies exceeding anything witnessed during the post-2008 panic and recession. Some 100,000 firms could be forced into insolvency in coming months, bankruptcy consultancy Red Flag Alert warned this week. These are otherwise healthy firms with at least £1 million in annual revenue. Business failures on this scale would dwarf the roughly 65,000 firms of any size that went under from 2008-10.
The culprit is energy prices, which the consultancy believes could account directly for around one-quarter of the possible insolvencies. These prices are rising for British businesses in intervals of several hundred percent at a time and sometimes with steep deposit requirements from utilities that fear precisely a wave of bankruptcies.
Matters are probably worse in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy. Some 73% of small and medium-sized enterprises in one survey reported feeling heavy pressure from energy prices, and 10% of those say they believe they face ‘existential’ threats to their businesses over the next six months. And that poll, from the small-business association BMD, is the optimistic one. A separate survey published this week by the BDI, a major industry association, found 34% of respondents describing energy prices as an ‘existential challenge.’ Business failures will ripple up and down supply chains and quickly into the banks.”
The article discusses specific problems in Europe and concludes:
“Politicians are happy to blame Vladimir Putin and his Ukraine invasion for the current energy disaster. But what transformed that one-off shift in the relative price for energy into a global disaster was two decades of green-energy policy beforehand. In Europe, that includes a fixation on renewables incapable of powering industrial economies absent battery technologies that don’t exist, a refusal to tap domestic fossil-fuel reserves such as shale gas, and a deep and irrational hostility to nuclear power in many parts of the Continent.
This has created an energy system of dangerous rigidity and inefficiency incapable of adapting to a blow such as Russia’s partial exit from the European gas market. It’s almost inevitable that the imminent result will be a recession in Europe. We can only hope that it won’t also trigger a global financial crisis.”
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