Trends and Tips for Picking a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Winner

One of many Breeders’ Cup races that pulls probably the most consideration annually – from devoted lifelong racing aficionados to the informal fan — is the Juvenile. Nearly everybody who has even a passing curiosity in sports activities has heard of the Kentucky Derby, and the TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance is the primary main platform for subsequent yr’s Triple Crown hopefuls.

Not solely does the race provide a glimpse of what’s to come back on the subsequent yr’s Derby path, the race usually determines the Eclipse Award for champion 2-year-old male.

Whereas the winner of the Juvenile has not constantly carried that elite type into his 3-year-old season, final yr’s race was a springboard to stardom for a deep contingent that features Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Jackie’s Warrior and Rombauer. And the 5 editions from 2015 to 2019 produced racehorses like Nyquist, Brody’s Trigger, Exaggerator, Rated R Famous person, Basic Empire, Sensible Joke, Good Magic, Firenze Fire, U S Navy Flag, Sport Winner, Mr. Cash, Mind Control, Complexity, and Nicely Outlined, who went on to graded stakes success in subsequent years.

This yearly characteristic appears to be like again at previous editions of the race to see what the final 20 editions of the Juvenile inform us about the principle attributes of a typical winner. We’ll then apply that data to evaluate the 2021 TVG Juvenile Offered by TAA at Del Mar on Nov. 5.

The very first thing that jumps out to me is that this a race that often produces upsets with 14 of the final 20 winners paying at the least $10 on a $2 guess and eight of the 20 producing winners at double-digit odds. So, that looks like the perfect place to start out.

On the lookout for Longshots

Favorites can and do win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, however six occasions within the final 20 years the winner has rewarded backers with a win payout of $29.80 or extra for a $2 win guess. As beneficial as that may be – an upset win can single-handedly give a bettor a worthwhile weekend – think about how a lot even the ten winners that paid $15 or extra throughout this span boosted the worth of multi-race tickets for gamblers who included them. Let’s discover the chances of the Juvenile winners and take a more in-depth take a look at the upset winners.

• Solely 4 favorites have received the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile within the final 20 years: Warfare Move (2007), Uncle Mo (2010), Shanghai Bobby (2012), and Sport Winner (2018).
• Whereas there have additionally been six winners between 7-2 and 5-1, that leaves fairly a couple of longshot winners, together with eight who crossed the end line first at 10.50-1 or greater.
• That has helped enhance the common odds of the Juvenile winner to 11.4-1 with a median of 5.9-1. Even utilizing the median, a $13.80 winner could be the important thing to a terrific rating in vertical or horizontal bets.
• Of the eight double-digit odds winners, 4 have been greater than 25-1 odds: Motion This Day, 26.80-1 in 2003; Wilko, 28.30-1 in 2004; Vale of York, 30.60-1 in 2009; and Storm the Court docket, 45.90-1 in 2019.
• Let’s take a more in-depth take a look at the double-digit winners, however we’ll begin by eliminating from the equation Vale of York, who shipped in from Italy and posted a stunning upset on an artificial major monitor.
• All the different seven double-digit longshots (not counting Vale of York) completed within the high three of their ultimate prep race, however solely two received and each of these winners got here out of a maiden particular weight race rating.
• 4 of the seven ran third and have been overwhelmed by open lengths, with three operating third in Grade 1 races and Wilko popping out of a Group 2 race in Europe. So, it may be value wanting nearer on the horses who rounded out the exacta/trifecta in key prep races realizing 2-year-olds can enhance dramatically presently of yr.
• Storm the Court docket inherited an uncontested tempo after 9-10 favourite Dennis’ Second stumbled badly firstly in 2019, however the different six longshot winners profiled as stalkers or closers and 4 of them have been eighth or worse after the primary quarter-mile and half-mile. (Be aware: Storm the Court docket additionally profiled as a stalker getting into the race.)
• These seven double-digit longshot winners (not counting Vale of York) have been on common greater than 6 ¾ lengths again after a half-mile, however that dramatically modified by early stretch as on common the seven have been a couple of head in entrance, which to me signifies an explosive flip of foot amongst this group.
• Six of the seven had just one win to their credit score getting into the Juvenile. Wilko had two wins from 10 begins, however the different six longshots we’re averaged just below three begins (2.83) with a median of three races.
• Six of the seven had posted an Equibase Pace Determine of at the least 106 with a mean of 107.1 and a median of 108.5.
• My major takeaway from the seven double-digit longshots (not counting Vale of York) is to search for flippantly raced prospects who’ve both been aggressive towards elite stakes competitors or are coming off a maiden win. It additionally helps if they’ve proven the flexibility to price off the tempo and make a sustained late run.

Let’s Talk about the Favorites

The Juvenile has produced fairly a couple of upsets in latest yr, however what stands out when taking a more in-depth take a look at the profitable favorites? During the last 20 years, they’ve undoubtedly match a selected profile.

• The 4 profitable favorites talked about above – Warfare Move (2007), Uncle Mo (2010), Shanghai Bobby (2012), and Sport Winner (2018) – mixed for 12 begins earlier than the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and received all of them.
• All 4 capped unbeaten, Eclipse Award-winning campaigns within the Juvenile.
• All 4 got here out of Grade 1 wins and three got here out of a victory within the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.
• The one one of many 4 who didn’t lead from begin to end was Sport Winner, who profiled as a stalker getting into the 2018 Juvenile. He raced 4 lengths again in sixth after a half-mile and was inside a head of the lead in early stretch.
• Three of the 4 received by 2 ¼ lengths or extra; solely Shanghai Bobby, who received by a head in 2012, was severely challenged within the stretch.
• Solely one of many 4 had earlier expertise in two-turn races.
• The six winners within the 7-2 to 5-1 vary all had completely different operating kinds, however all six had a graded stakes win to his credit score. 5 of the six entered the Juvenile off a graded stakes win – Vindication (2002), Stevie Wonderboy (2005), Nyquist (2015), Basic Empire (2016), Important High quality (2020) – with the opposite, Midshipman in 2008, coming off a runner-up end by lower than a size in a Grade 1.
• Just like the 4 profitable favorites over the past 20 years, Vindication, Nyquist, and Important High quality all capped unbeaten 2-year-old seasons with Juvenile wins.
• The six winners within the 7-2 to 5-1 vary had received 16 of their 20 lifetime begins getting into the Juvenile. 4 of the six had a career-best 109 Equibase Pace Determine or higher and 5 of them had expertise in two-turn races.

Different Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Tidbits

We coated fairly a bit of knowledge within the segments above so far as how they pertained to longshot winners or favorites, so somewhat than revisiting all the similar factors because it pertains to the 20 Juvenile winners on the entire, let’s concentrate on some key total takeaways from this pattern of races.

• Eight of the 20 winners got here out of a ultimate prep race in California and 4 got here out of the Champagne Stakes.
• All 20 winners have been third or higher of their ultimate prep race.
• Eighteen of the 20 received or have been inside three lengths of the winner of their ultimate prep race with solely Texas Purple (third by 4 ¾ lengths behind American Pharoah within the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes) and Storm the Court docket (third by 8 ¼ lengths within the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes) serving as exceptions.
• Solely two winners weren’t stakes winners or graded stakes-placed getting into the race and so they each entered off maiden particular wight wins.
• 9 of the 20 winners had already received a Grade 1 race.
• Working fashion is just not particularly necessary as stalkers-closers have received nearly all of the 20 races however six winners profiled as tempo/press-the-pace sorts.
• In 2017, which was the lone earlier Breeders’ Cup held at Del Mar, the winner (Good Magic) shipped in from New York off a runner-up end within the Champagne Stakes. The second- and third-place finishers have been the runner-up (Solomini) and winner (Bolt d’Oro) from the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
• Good Magic was fourth, three lengths again, after a gap half-mile in :46.75 within the 2017 version at Del Mar and had opened a one-length lead in early stretch.
• That is extra of a enjoyable truth, however 19 of the 20 have been bred in Kentucky with Irish-bred Vale of York the lone exception in 2009.

Evaluating the 2021 Juvenile Contenders

Final yr, all 4 of the horses recognized as probably winners (2) and stay longshots (2) for the Juvenile have been amongst high 5 finishers with Important High quality profitable and Keepmeinmind rounding out the highest three at 30.90.1. The one runner among the many high 5 not in that group was 94.40-longshot runner-up Sizzling Rod Charlie.

For the 2021 Juvenile, I feel you need to begin with Champagne Stakes winner Jack Christopher and American Pharoah Stakes winner Corniche. The previous is 2-for-2 for three-time Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown, who received this race in 2017 with Good Magic, and the latter totes the identical report for Corridor of famer Bob Baffert, who’s looking for his fifth win within the Juvenile.

Jack Christopher can be the fifth Champagne winner within the final 15 years to win the Juvenile ought to he prevail. He’s confirmed on the Grade 1 degree coming off a win and he’s an undefeated runner who most likely would be the favourite. His 100 Equibase Pace Determine and 102 Beyer Pace Determine for the Champagne win cement his credentials as a win candidate, though you could possibly make a case that he might need distance limitations and has but to race round two turns.

Like Jack Christopher, Corniche may cap an unbeaten season within the Juvenile, one thing that has occurred in 9 of the final 20 editions. He enters off a 3 ¼-length runaway win within the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita, a race that has produced the Juvenile winner 4 occasions within the final seven years. Corniche has been dominant in his two begins, is confirmed on the Grade 1 degree and on the 1 1/16-mile distance, and pacesetters have received 4 of the final 20 editions of the Juvenile. The High quality Highway colt is a really actual menace to provide Baffert his fifth win within the race.

Like Corniche, Pinehurst in an unbeaten Grade 1 winner skilled by Baffert. He has not raced since profitable the Runhappy Del Mar Futurity Sept. 6 in his second profession begin and has by no means raced past seven-eighths of a mile. He’s 2-for-2 on the principle monitor at Del Mar. Will probably be attention-grabbing to see if all-time main Breeders’ Cup jockey Mike Smith opts for Corniche or Pinehurst, however I’d lean towards Corniche.

For these searching for an interesting longshot in keeping with a number of the figuring out traits mapped out above, I see positives in Oviatt Class, Commandperformance, and Big Sport.

Oviatt Class is a deep nearer skilled by Keith Desormeaux, who received the Juvenile in 2014 with one other runner with that profile, Texas Purple. He didn’t get a lot in the best way of tempo to arrange his ending velocity within the American Pharoah when closing from greater than 11 lengths again to complete third. On condition that Jack Christopher, Corniche, and Pinehurst all boast early velocity, Oviatt Class may get a super setup on the monitor the place he ran his greatest race when profitable at one mile and incomes a 91 Equibase Pace Determine.

Commandperformance, like 2017 Juvenile winner Good Magic, is winless in two begins earlier than the Juvenile and comes off a runner-up end within the Champagne Stakes. He additionally didn’t get a super setup from a tempo perspective within the one-turn mile race however ran the quickest ultimate quarter-mile and eighth of a mile in that race and will take a step ahead at a giant worth for coach Todd Pletcher, who has received the Juvenile twice.

Big Sport is the one I feel may actually mild up the toteboard Nov. 5 at Del Mar. He improved considerably when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles Oct. 9 at Keeneland and confirmed extra tactical velocity in contrast along with his debut third-place end. He received by three lengths in a race that was simply so-so from a velocity determine perspective, however this half-brother to a number of graded stakes winner Isotherm may take a step ahead for Dale Romans. Two horses coming off maiden wins within the final 20 years orchestrated upsets within the Juvenile: Motion This Day (26.80-1 odds in 2003) and New Yr’s Day (10.50-1 odds in 2013).

I actually respect Jack Christopher, but it surely’s powerful to look previous Corniche on high and once I’m placing collectively unique tickets, I’ll be liberally utilizing each Oviatt Class and Big Sport.