Honor Marie, Our Beautiful Lady Attractive long-term options

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Honor Marie, Our Beautiful Lady Attractive long-term options

Most years, I like to look through the full cards for Friday’s Kentucky Oaks and Saturday’s Kentucky Derby for value bets and live longshots. However, this year’s two races alone have had so many intriguing double-digit shots that I decided to make them the focus and dig deeper into the value to be had in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) value. $1.5 million and the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1).

Friday, May 3, Kentucky Oaks, 5:51 p.m. ET

My initial view of the 2024 Kentucky Oaks is that it is quite open and could be anyone’s race. That outlook still stands… as long as the weather cooperates and the main track runs fast on Oaks day. The forecast shows that is unlikely with rain on Oaks Day and scattered thunderstorms on both Friday and Derby day. If the Oaks are drawn on Friday, the No. 8 favorite Tarifa (7-2), #13 Just letting you know (9-2) and #14 Leslie’s Rose (4-1) will be formidable. All have won on “out” tracks and boast very strong Tomlinson numbers, which Daily Racing Form uses to make educated guesses about how racehorses will handle wet tracks based on on the performance of the sire and the sire’s progeny on the “off” track.

Bringing the weather into the equation, let’s take a quick look at all the Oaks entrants at 10-1 or better odds in the morning to find value when betting on the race. For this exercise, I also did not consider number 5 Thorpedo Anna (5-1) and #11 Ways and means (5-1) due to odds.

first. Tapit Jenallie (30-1): She could move up a bit with an “off” track, but she was 7 1/4 lengths behind Thorpedo Anna in the grade 2 Fantasy Stakes and doesn’t look fast enough.

2. gin : (30-1): Another who gets a slight boost in the wet… and another who on paper doesn’t look fast enough to be a real threat.

Registration for BloodHorse Daily

3. Where is my ring? (15-1): Where can I register 15-1 for an improving 3-year-old filly after a dominant win at 4 1/4 at this distance in the Gazelle Stakes (G3)? Count me in! (Note: my enthusiasm wanes a bit on wet roads.)

4. Legal risks (20-1): Gazelle’s runner-up could be a filly thanks to the famous trainer-jockey combination of Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz. Qualified to run well but I prefer the Gazelle winner.

6. Lemon Muffins (30-1): Square price for the winner of the Honeybee Stakes (G3) if you can forgive a fool in the Fantasy Stakes, beaten 10 3/4 lengths, in his most recent start she. Those two seconds of rallying at Churchill as a 2-year-old are reason for optimism.

7. Fiona’s magic (30-1): Finished first or second in each of her first five races before she was edged out in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. Coach Bo Yates said the ranger after the race secreted a lot of mucus, indicating she was sick. It looks much more attractive if you draw a straight line in that race.

9. Everland (30-1): Never raced on dirt, so she’s a real wild card. Her 447 Tomlinson rating for the wet track was the highest of the 14 entrants and two also qualified, so she could be worth using if it rains.

ten. Enter the champagne (30-1): She is another who looks more playable on the wet track with a winning bet on the sloppy main track and the second-highest Tomlinson rating (445) for the wet surface. On dry (fast) main tracks, I prefer other tracks.

twelfth. Electric squeeze (12-1): I suspect the morning line odds will hold for a filly that has won four straight, including three stakes wins this year. Absolutely good enough to win and fast enough to make a nice ride.

AE15. Our beautiful woman (15-1): She is also on the qualifying list and needs a defection to enter the race. If anything, Our Pretty Woman is my best bet for May 3rd at Churchill. She had great speed and was a threat to lead from start to finish when finishing second to Tarifa in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). She also improved in three starts for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen and was 2-for-2 in the wet.

AE16. Candy (20-1): Another would be a serious player if she had two defections and got into the race. She finished fourth in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes on her first start in six months and will improve if she races. Wet roads are not a problem.

Longest snapshot: Our beautiful woman

Other long-term winning candidates (in order of preference): Where’s my ring, Electric wallet, Candy

Bombing for accuracy/triple: Fiona’s Magic, Lemon Muffin

Saturday, May 4, Kentucky Derby, 6:57 p.m. ET

To evaluate the Kentucky Derby’s long shots, let’s move the goalposts to the participating teams with odds of 15-1 or better in the morning’s action.

The beauty of the Kentucky Derby as a betting race is that you have the opportunity to bet on a runner improving, often coming from a career best race, by large odds, so please don’t Let me tell you about a long drive that you like. Handicappers and bettors both value different things and in the Derby you can be well rewarded for having opposing opinions.

Rain is also possible so that is part of the equation. So, without further ado, let’s take a look at the long-shot contenders for the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

first. Dornoch (20-1): Full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner magician ran well in two tries at “off” tracks, including winning second choice at the morning line Sierra Leone in Remsen Shares 2023 (G2). The inside position in a 20-horse field is a brutal draw and he enters the Derby off to the worst start of his career, so I’m looking elsewhere.

3. Mystik Dan (20-1): He will likely benefit as much as any Derby entrant if the track takes place on a wet Saturday. I didn’t like his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but he went down the muddy track with tremendous speed in the Southwest Stakes (G3). Worth playing if it rains.

5. Catalysis (30-1): Only first win in three starts. Picking up jockey Jose Ortiz helps and he has tactical pace, but I have my doubts that he is ready for this challenge.

6. Steel only (20-1): Based on speed metrics, he jumps off the page as a candidate to beat his odds for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. I plan to use quite a few Arkansas Derby runners-up in my exotic bets.

7. Honor Marie (20-1): He appears to be the “noisy” horse on the Kentucky Derby backstretch, so he’s training well and chances are his odds will drop a bit. He is in second best form Seize freedom in the Louisiana Derby (G2), is just a length behind and offers more attractive odds. Also owns two wins and a second win in three starts at Churchill. A candidate to win and must be used in strange contests for me… unless it rains.

9. Encino (20-1): Winner of three straight, including a leading score in the Lexington Stakes (G3) that puts him through the back door into the Kentucky Derby. I’m a huge fan of this 3-year-old and he’s making progress, but it’s been a tough time with three weeks off.

ten. TO password (30-1): He is 2-for-2 in Japan but he is ready to go about 1/8 mile in the Fukuryu Stakes with much less competition than he will face here in his third career start. I like his more experienced compatriot more Youth forever chance of winning the Derby.

twelfth Follow the ghost (20-1): With his speed and a few seconds off track, he will move up a bit if it rains on Derby day. He’s fast enough to be in the chase over the long stretch, but he faded late in his last start at 1 3/16 miles and it’s hard to envision that change going forward. further here.

13. West Saratoga (30-1): He’s a workhorse in the game and a great story, but I don’t think he’s fast enough to be a serious threat.

14. endless (30-1): One of the more talented 3-year-olds in the field with five wins in six starts, but he has never raced on dirt and his trainer seems to enjoy racing him That on the Derby field at the weekend was the first jewel of the Three Kings.

15. Domestic products (30-1): My hunch is that he will fly late after he was, by a considerable margin, fastest over the last three legs and the last eighth of a mile in the standard race was his last. Love his opportunities to spice things up or trifecta with big odds. Rain will dampen my enthusiasm.

16. First Dai Mo (50-1): Third by a neck in the Tampa Bay Derby gives some reason for optimism, but he’s 16 lengths behind Fierceness and 2 1/2 behind runner-up Catalytic in the Florida Derby (G1) length. Not for me.