While wind and solar power are making up a larger share of the world’s growing primary energy pie, fossil fuels are expected to experience more absolute growth through 2050. .
#energy #petroleum #petroleum #renewable energy #solar energy #wind energy
By: Leen Weijers, VP of Engineering, Liberty Energy
As CEO of Liberty Energy Chris Wright explained in his viral video a few weeks ago, dishonest terminology surrounded the climate debate. One of these terms is “Energy Conversion”. The use of this term gives the impression that a quick, easy and scalable alternative exists to eliminate the use of fossil fuels without seriously affecting people.
Current primary energy distribution according to sources and forecasts by organizations such as EIA in International Energy Outlook 2021, showing that this “energy transition” is nonexistent. As you can see in the header chart above, and also in Liberty’s ESG Report on Improving People’s LivesCurrently no amount of primary energy is generated by oil or gas replace by renewable energy. A few headlines from the report that you don’t hear a lot about:
- Global primary energy use is about to increase by nearly 50% between 2020 and 2050 as the poor rise out of poverty;
- Oil consumption increases in all EIA scenarios. In their “Reference Scenario”, oil consumption increases by about 1 million bpd over the next 30 years, roughly equaling the steady annual increase over the past 5 decades;
- Natural gas consumption will continue to increase until 2050.
The reason for this growth is simple: fossil fuels are abundant, cheap and efficient to provide dense and reliable energy on a large scale. They have helped create a revolution in the quality of life for a portion of humanity, and poor people have missed this blessing rightfully want what you and I had.
Sadly, there are very few reports of this blessing that we take for granted. However, the good news about record-breaking renewables is widespread and often overblown. There are several marketing strategies that renewable energy advocates have employed that make it appear that renewable energy has a larger market share than it actually is:
First, use the words “energy” or “energy” when they mean “electricity”. Take This report by Reuters as an example: “Renewable energy is expected to account for about 46% of Germany’s electricity consumption this year….“This sounds like Germans are using renewable energy to meet almost half of their energy needs. But this is ONLY for electricity. According to BP Statistical Assessment and the chart below of OurWorldInData.org for world electricity compared to primary electricity, worldwide electricity only accounts for 17% of total primary electricity. That’s also the place currently standing in Germany. In 2021, Germany’s top three main energy sources are oil, natural gas and coal.
Second, report reproducible records without mentioning that they are short-lived. As an example, this paragraph prides itself on renewable energy supplying 85% of Germany’s electricity needs. But like the primary power sources reported in The plot below is reported by Timera Energy, wind and solar records don’t last long, and there are times when they don’t provide anything at all. Fossil fuels are there to back them up – you are welcome. Power reliability is a marathon, not a sprint.
Third, report electrical capacity, not power output. Renewables really shine when using this metric as they are dormant most of the time. If you’ve ever spent time in Western Europe, you know that the sun there, like most Europeans, only has a 32-hour workweek, while it doesn’t give any information about the time. where it appears. What to do in the remaining 136 hours that week? You need to build a lot of energy to harvest a little energy. According to BP Statistical Review, the world power factor is only 14% for solar and 26% for wind. Therefore, if you see a historical capacity growth curve, divide the slope of the solar curve by 7 and the slope of the wind curve by 4 to get the power output. Consumers pay for MWh, not MW.
Finally, incorporate “traditional biofuels” to increase the share of renewable energy as a share of total energy demand. These traditional biofuels kill millions of people each year due to the release of PM2.5 particles when cooking indoors. If there is one “transition” that humanity needs as soon as possible, it is the transition from traditional renewable cooking fuels to clean-burning fossil fuels.
These unfair reporting methods have led to confusion and the belief that an “Energy Transition” is currently being worked on. Not so.
The EIA primary energy forecast for the next 30 years shows that ALL energy sources are growing. While renewables make up a larger share of the growing pie, fossil fuels are expected to grow faster in absolute terms.
Recently, a flash of sanity has returned to the nuclear energy debate. For a reliable, cost-effective, low-carbon and scalable energy transition, we need to follow the path suggested by Robert Bryce in his book electricity hungry. Going forward, we need more natural gas that reduces CO2 emissions and is cheap, reliable, and abundant. In the long run, we need to build nuclear power, hopefully eventually nuclear fusion. Before that, let’s hope a spark of sobriety returns to the discussion of “Energy Transformation”.
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