By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
During the winter and spring, we held big races for three-year-olds. Kentucky Derby (G1) … Preakness S. (G1) … Santa Anita Derby (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), Florida Derby (G1) and Blue Grass S. (G1) … .
We’ll keep the trend going by focusing our attention this week on the $300,000 Texas Derby at Lone Star Park. The 1/16 mile event will take place on Memorial Day, and while it is not categorical, the Texas Derby nevertheless drew a school that can afford eight horses.
Some of the contestants have previously competed in the Tier 1 races we mentioned earlier. #2 Win the day (7-2), for example, came out of fifth in the Santa Anita Derby. Trainee Doug O’Neill previously made a big rally from last place to win the one-mile special women’s weight class at Santa Anita with a length of 5 and a half.
But the form of the Derby Santa Anita has not been very good in recent weeks. Taiba and Messier, the top two finishers by a wide margin, returned to 12th and 15th place in the Kentucky Derby. The third-place finisher was 14th away from Happy Jack in the Derby and eighth in the Preakness. A fourth-place finisher, Armagnac won the right to claim the option of allowing a mile in the next start, but then finished seventh in Preakness.
#1 Hit hard (4-1) also has Grade 1 experience. Second place in the Mucho Macho Man S. during the winter at Gulfstream Park, Strike Hard finished seventh in the Florida Derby before returning to claim custom rights. choose a mile at Gulfstream.
But Strike Hard also has marks in his armor. The Florida Derby’s format was successful as the top two finishers, White Abarrio and Charge It, finished 16th and 17th in the Kentucky Derby. And Strike Hard’s recent bonus point is thanks to an early/slow race shape late in the game that favors Strike Hard’s tight running style.
Opposite, #8 Secrets of AP (5-2) has never competed in Division 1, but his overall form looks more promising. In his first three starts at Gulfstream Park, he ate his maidenhood and claimed victory around the runner-up attempt behind Strike Hard in an allowance-optional claimant on Dec. 5. AP’s Secret then ran a very good donkey at the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) in Gulfstream, finishing in seventh at 8 1/2 lengths after cutting the heel to near the top of the top. distance.
AP’s Secret was then dropped at 49-1 as he started the Wood Memorial (G2) deep court at the Aqueduct, where he beat expectations to finish fourth behind fifth-placed the Kentucky Derby. Mo Donegal is in trouble. AP’s Secret is only beaten 5 1/4 lengths after early pacing (set by Preakness winner followed by Early Voting), and AP’s Secret only completes 1 1/2 lengths after Skippylongstocking , who finished in 5th as a long shot in Preakness.
In Wood Memorial, AP’s Secret earned a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the Texas Derby field. The Triple Crown nomination looks hard to beat for hot coach/jockey duo Edwin Gonzalez and Saffie Joseph Jr., who have teamed 5-20 (25%) over the past two months. Let’s throw in the fact that AP’s Secret has been on the fast track for five runs: 59 4/5 last Sunday, and the gray horse shows up as a reasonable favourite.
If you want to use long images for small prizes, #6 There’s Thunder (12-1) is worth long-term consideration. The son of late-maturing champion Arrogate has a foundation that must improve with age, especially since his half-brother Heart to Heart didn’t score his special 1st place win until the age of 7. .
Got Thunder needed five warm-ups to break his maidenhood, but he was favored in all five of those runs (two starts as a random pick), so he’s always been considered is a promising person. He’s headed for some good ponies along the way, including Armagnac and graded multi-stakes winner Newgrange, and he posted a career-best 90 Brisnet Speed rating when won the first 1/16 mile special weight at Santa Anita last month.
Sold for $750,000 as a juvenile, Got Thunder is moving slowly but surely in the right direction and arrives at the Lone Star after a couple of 5-reel workouts. If Got Thunder goes one step further, he could challenge for third to the finish line with double-digit odds.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the Texas Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
