This November, Mother Nature is an easygoing hostess, serving the weather both hot and frozenwith appetizers moist and full, or burnt to a crisp. Also, we reminisce about recent months in our fall recap.
The warm exterior grips the cold soul
Several warm days are believed to have driven this November in our historical temperature charts. The National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) records a preliminary statewide mean temperature of 53.6°F and ours 13-warmest November over the past 128 years.
In the first week of the month, the southeast wind around offshore high pressure pushed our temperatures into the 80s statewide.
On the mountain, Hot waterfall touch 86°F to November 7it was the most recent warm day since 1984. In Piedmont, even in the north Roxboro temperatures hit 84°F that afternoon, which was the warmest November day there since 1974. And at the coast, Wilmington ended the month with 7 days at 80°F or higher, the third highest of any November since 1874.
Our biggest cooldown comes on November 13 when Canada’s high pressure pushed behind a cold front. That caused daytime temperatures to drop to 40 degrees across western Piedmont, while low to below freezing including in Raleighhad its first autumn freeze on the morning of November 14th.
That event even saw unexpected snowfall in the Mountains with the first snowflakes of the season. More than an inch of snow accumulated in some high-altitude areas, especially in Yancey County.
The cooler mid-month period didn’t last long as temperatures quickly rose nearly 10 degrees above normal under the influence of the weather. Southeast high pressure. Thanksgiving afternoon temperature even hit the 70s in some southern coastal locations.
With those warm weeks, many areas had one of the ten warmest Novembers ever recorded. In Raleighit was the 5th hottest since 1887 and the warmest November since 2003. Lumberton associated with the 6th warmest November in the past 107 years and Wilmington has the 8th hottest record in history.
Nicole tops the guest list
Starting with some tropical remnants, November includes some heavy rains that make it wetter than usual overall. The NCEI reports a statewide preliminary average rainfall of 4.12 inchesranked as 29-wettest November since 1895.
The most prominent event of the month is Hurricane NicoleTheir remnants moved over November 10-11 and caused more than 4 inches of rain in parts of the Mountains.
For central and eastern Piedmont, the heaviest rains occurred the weekend after Thanksgiving. A pair of front systems delivers 2 to 3 inches in total from Charlotte across the Triangle. On November 27, we hill chapel The ECONet station reported 1.64 inches – the highest daily total there since the remnants of Hurricane Ian almost two months ago.
The Mountain and Piedmont areas that received the heaviest rains last month also saw improving on the US Drought Monitorwith Abnormally Dry conditions (D0) gradually decreasing as seasonal rainfall deficit disappears.
For example, at the end of October, Charlotte is 1.3 inches below normal in the fall, but a total monthly rainfall of 5.82 inches – and the record 11th wettest November – leaves Queen City 1.2 inches inundated above normal when the autumn climate approaches.
However, at either end of the state, rain is less and less intense, so the drought persists. In northern Haywood County, dry conditions helped the wildfires caused by Hurricane Ridge spread across 700 acresincluding along Interstate 40.
Down to the east, ours Clinton The ECONet station measured just 1.89 inches of rain for the whole month and ended the fifth-dryest fall in 24 years. The recent lack of significant rainfall has sent flow in the lower Cape Fear River basin fall below seasonal normal.
There’s a bit of good news, even for areas affected by the drought: November was wetter than last year, when most states had less than an inch in buy, Severe drought (D2) is expandingand Pilot Mountain’s famous peak is covered with smoke and fire.
Even with another dry ability La Niña pushes winter aheadwe can say that the grass is actually greener now than it was a year ago.
Final Thoughts on Autumn
November has ended the climatic autumn, which has been a season of great variation in temperature and rainfall this year.
SeptemberThe initial summer-like heat has finally given way to more favorable weather conditions, and even a rare cooler than usual. October. The prevailing warmth of November has pulled the average seasonal temperature slightly above normal. Preliminary NCEI statistics show that the statewide average temperature over the past three months is 60.6°For ours 41-the warmest autumn on profile.
Perhaps even more dramatic was that our dry spells were ended by heavy rains. In early September, the Southern Mountains welcome more than 6 inches in some areas, and drought is hardly a concern. In reality, Our last drought just ended after sticking with nearly ten consecutive months.
But by mid-September, a drier pattern had formed, sending far west North Carolina back into drought just a month later. Even a possible drought in Ian hardly misses those mountains, and dry days last through most of October.
Rain from our Nicole and other late-November events helped alleviate some of the hardship, but many western locations still end the fall with rainfall shortfalls. City of Bryson is 2.10 inches below average, and Ashevillecurrently classified as Abnormally Dry (D0), 0.71 inches lower than normal.
Piedmont is in the same “moderate” position as Goldilocks to receive favorable rains from both our fall tropical systems and end the season almost as usual. With 11.98 inches, Greensboro an inch higher than average, while RaleighIts total drop is 10.93 inches, 0.9 inches lower than normal.
Much of the southern and central coasts have been dry since Ian, so the greatest seasonal rainfall deficits have accumulated there. 7.71 inches this fall Wilmington is 9.20 inches below normal, and Newport is 8.16 inches below normal.
Across the state, the weather will drop into the form of a slightly drier fall than usual. Preliminary data from the NCEI show that the average total seasonal rainfall is 10.53 inchesor 2 inches below the latest 30-year average, ranked as 61- dry autumn on profile.
That’s partly due to the relatively quiet hurricane season, at least compared to pre-season prediction for an above average year in the Atlantic. Nicole is the fourteenth named storm, matching the most recent 30-year average. Of those 14, only three were affected in North Carolina.
Colin early July is a short-lived storm and at best a light downpour. Ian and Nicole are better rainmakers, but for coastal regions accustomed to multiple storms flooding each year, they are not enough to weather another dry season.
With the exception of the December cataclysm, areas in southeastern North Carolina will also end the calendar year below normal. As of November 30, Wilmington has recorded 39.17 inches so far this year, compared with the normal annual rainfall of 60.15 inches. That means 2022 could be the driest year there since 2011, ending with a total of 39.87 inches.
To find out how this year ends and grows, stay tuned in January. We have scheduled an annual review webinar for Tuesday, January 17 at 11 a.m; A summary blog post will also be released that day. Our December climate summary will have more details and a link to sign up for the webinar.
