Using an outdated reference period, the German DWD Weather Service turns the cooling into warmer – increased by that?
Via P Gosselin above 8. January 2022
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
Die kalte Sonne
(Text translated and edited by P. Gosselin)
Globally, the deviation of the average global temperature of satellite-based measurements from the 1991-2020 average increased slightly. in December to 0.21 degrees Celsius. The average temperature increase since satellite measurements began is 0.14 degrees Celsius per decade. 2021 is the mean year from 2010 to 2020, with a 0.134 degree deviation from the thirty-year average. Six years since 2010 have been warmer and five years colder.
The same is true for Germany. But the German weather service gives a different impression
Chart: Dr. Roy Spencer
How Germany’s DWD Weather Service will go from cold to warm in 2021
In it German weather press release 2021, the German Weather Service wrote: “Average temperature [Germany] year 2021 is 9.1 degrees Celsius (°C), 0.9 degrees higher than the value of the internationally valid reference period from 1961 to 1990. Therefore, 2021 is the 11th year. consecutively too warm”.
Why is DWD using the international 1961-1990 reference period no longer valid? It write yourself elsewhere: “To record the climate and its changes, mean values are formed over a period of 30 years… At the end of 2020, the reference period for current climate assessments is replaced by period 1991 to 2020.”
Move with reference interval
Therefore, DWD followed the recommendation of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). But in the press release, DWD still prioritizes using the old, outdated type. The period from 1991 to 202 differs from the period from 1961 to 1990 by 1.1 degrees. So the DWD should have written: “The year 2021 is 9.1 degrees, 1.3 degrees colder than 2020 and even -0.2 degrees lower than the average from 1991 to 2020 Since 1991, only nine years have been colder than 2021.”
But another 0.9 degrees and the eleventh consecutive year of being too warm (compared to the colder period of 1961-1990) are of course much more in line with the zeitgeist.
Read the original in German at Die kalte Sonne.
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