Guest posts by Willis Eschenbach
Well, the endless curiosity of my monkey mind led me to some interesting datasets at KNMI. They are a series of meteorological measurements made in the Netherlands since 1964. I noticed that they had global solar irradiance data, so I plotted that to see the variations. I overlaid it with a CEEMD residual, which remained after the various cyclic variations were removed. The CEEMD residual shows the overall trend of the data. (For more information on CEEMD analysis, see my post “Data analysis supports noise.)
Figure 1. Dutch monthly solar irradiance, January 1964 – January 2023
This is interesting. Solar power runs flat for about five years, decreases for about twenty years or so, and then increases after that.
Next, I consider the surface temperature of the Netherlands in a similar way.
Figure 2. Monthly surface temperatures of the Netherlands, January 1964 – January 2023
Figure 2 shows a generally slow increase in temperature over the mentioned time period.
Now, my choice of these two datasets is not random. Remember that the central model of modern climate science is the very simple view that changes in temperature are a linear function of changes in the underlying radiation.
I, I think that’s ridiculous. I know of no other complex chaotic system with such a simple input/output relationship… but that is what mainstream climate science claims. I discuss this idea in my article titled “Cold equations“.
So… here’s the relationship between solar radiation and temperature in the Netherlands. In both cases I used the CEEMD balance.
Figure 3. Monthly surface temperatures of the Netherlands, January 1964 – January 2023
Hmmm… not exactly a linear relationship. It starts with a decrease in solar radiation and an increase in temperature… and then that relationship reverses.
Hmmm really.
Now, this is just solar radiation. Unfortunately, the KNMI data do not include lowered long-wave radiation. However, we have that data from the CERES dataset between March 2000 and February 2022. During that time, the reduced longwave radiation in the Netherlands was reduced by -5.0 W. /m2.
And this in turn gives an overall sensitivity (longwave + shortwave) over a shorter period of time which is…0.1°C per W/m2…see figure.
Can we draw any overarching global conclusions from this analysis? No way. It’s only a small country… however, it shows that over the past 60 years or so, there’s more to the Dutch temperature than just diminishing radiation.
My best for all.
w.
My usual request: When commenting, please quote the exact words you are discussing. This avoids endless misunderstandings.
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