Month-long warmth in February set local temperature records, but the weather cooperated for a outdoor hockey night. Meanwhile, the first rains of the month wash away the drought in North Carolina. We also preview the possibility of a return of winter March.
A feeling of spring
The persistent and unprecedented heat of the past month has made February one of our warmest Februarys ever. According to the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), the statewide preliminary average temperature is 50.5°F. it’s ours 3rd-warmest February recorded since 1895, just behind 2018 and 2017 in the ranking.
In other words, that temperature was slightly above the monthly average for March (50.3°F). And on our warmest days when the mercury hits the 80s, those temperatures are more typical later in the year. Maybe later February.
Our first taste of unseasonal warmth arrives on February 8-10 as a superior ridge across the Southeastern United States and offshore high pressure Our Advanced temperature in the 70s.
Another wave of warm weather arrives next week preceded by a cold front, with highs reach 70°F even in the west Asheville And Murphy.
The warmest weather comes in the last week of the month, like a subtropical mountain range model and a warm front soaring in from the south leaving us with Florida-like temperatures in February. On February 23, sites across the state hit the 80’sbreaking all-time record high for the month Fayetteville (85°F), Raleigh (85°F), and Wilmington (86°F).
That record high in Raleigh was 27.4 degrees above normal, which is the second-biggest daily anomaly there since 2011, just behind February 12, 2017, when the temperature was as high as 83°. Our F is 28.5 degrees higher than the normal 54.5°F. Raleigh twice peaked at 80°F last month and ended with the warmest February on record since 1887.
Other long-term sites measuring their warmest February include catkin (warmest in 75 years) and Lincolnton (warmest in 66 years). among us ECONetit’s the warmest February in Reidsville over the past 19 years, and the hottest in Burnsville Since 2009, temperatures also set a monthly record high of 78.8°F on February 22.
Hockey weather highlights
With incredible warmth last month, finding a window for an outdoor hockey game was like sneaking a slap over the shoulder of a massive goalkeeper. But for the NHL Stadium Series game at Carter-Finley Stadium on February 18, the weather cooperated and brought a hint of winter in the midst of another spring-like month.
High temperatures in the 70s in the week before the game and cold face the day before brought a nonstop rain that nearly impeded the fan festival in downtown Raleigh. But that front also opened up to a more pronounced seasonal air mass, with highs of just 54°F on Saturday afternoon as watchers gathered at the stadium.
By 8 p.m., the temperature drops to a chilly 40 degrees under clear skies, which means sweatshirts and toboggans – rather than the short-sleeved tops worn at the start of the week – are ideal for 56,961 fans in attendance.
though ours game preview note that temperatures at that time in February tend to be less than average — recent years have tended to be warmer, including a high of 71°F on February 18 last year — fortunately this year This coincides with our typical mid-February temperatures.
The weather is definitely one of the show’s stars, but Storm has also done its part well, earning a win 4-1 to wipe out the season streak against their tier rivals the Washington Capitals.
The drought is over, but the drought is still there
Last month started with a few drenched rains but ended with a drier spell across the state. The NCEI reports a statewide preliminary average rainfall of 2.96 inchesranked as February 39 is dry over the past 129 years.
The month starts with a few rainy days thanks to a stalled in front of our shores. Most visible areas half an inch to an inch of rainwith higher numbers in the central coastal plain.
Next week, one coastal low pressure system bring total more than 2 inches, mainly in the south and east. Wrapping up a wet month in eastern North Carolina, that event on February 11-12 erased the last parts of the Moderate Drought (D1) that first appeared last fall.
But after that immersion, the weather became drier as high pressure prevailed. Based on where the first rain of the month falls, there’s a mix of slightly wet, near-normal, and slightly dry areas across the state.
In the path of those offshore weather systems, Hatteras 0.57 inches higher than normal with the 36th wettest February since 1893. Charlotte ended the month with 3.13 inches – at the 30-year average. And on the drier side, Asheville 0.68 inches below normal with February being the 59th driest in 134 years.
Although the end of the month was drier, the drought did not reappear, but there are still some areas of Abnormally Dryness (D0), mainly along the southern coast. From the beginning of the year until now, Wilmington 1.7 inches below normal rainfall and some flow along the Cape Fear, New and Trent rivers have fallen below normal in recent weeks.
The recent warm weather, along with drier days, has also begun to dry up soil moisture throughout eastern North Carolina. While it’s not cause for alarm yet — and many farmers will be able to take advantage of the drier conditions to prepare their fields — we’ll want some rain in March to make sure the soil doesn’t. too dry to plant once the growing season begins in earnest.
Something Wintry This Way Comes?
Last month, we have evaluated winter is snowless across Piedmont and the Coastal Plains and offers some hope, at least based on history, that February could bring some measurable accumulation.
Of course, our warm weather caused another month of snowfall, making March our last realistic chance of snowfall this season.
Needless to say, the chances of a snowless winter ending in March are slim. IN Charlotteonly 2 out of 10 years without snow until the end of February accumulated in March Raleighthat conversion rate is only 2 out of 11, while Greensboro has controlled the March snow for seasonal savings only 3 out of 17 times in history.
The odds are lower for the coast. Greenville there was no snow after 25 times in February and only 4 of those years had snowfall in March Wilmingtonout of the 47 snow-free winters after February, they saw only five snowfalls in March—or about 11 percent of the time.
Our most recent March snowfall has arrived 2018, right after the hottest February on record. And while snow can’t be guaranteed this month, the overall weather pattern could be a case of history repeating itself.
Currently, one sudden warming of the stratosphere is happening high up in the atmosphere over the Arctic. Over the next few weeks, that is expected to weaken the polar vortex, which normally open the door for cold air to our north.
Guaranteed enough, current outlook showed a jet stream diving south and cooler-than-normal temperatures across the US in mid-March.
While winter weather is possible, the most likely impact of that pattern change would be a shock to the system for vegetation that has budded or bloomed. Flowers, fruit and other sensitive tissues on such plants can be easily damaged during a cold spell and with a average freezing day last spring in late March or early April over most of Piedmont and the Coastal Plain, we’re certainly not out of the woods yet for such cool nights.
If your garden has bloomed in cooler weather, see these tips from NC State Extension on ways to protect from frost and freeze damage, such as watering plants because moist soil traps more heat, covering plants with cloth or paper cups to retain heat, and bringing sensitive plants indoors on the coldest nights.
After a March-like February, we may have some more January-like March nights as our tumultuous start to 2023 continues.
