Russian President Vladimir Putin looks through the scope as he fires a Chukavin sniper rifle (SVC-380) during a visit to the Military Patriot Park in Kubinka, on the outskirts of Moscow, on September 19, 2018.
ALEXEY NIKOLSKY | AFP | beautiful pictures
Tensions between Russia and the West remain high after the United States refused to give in to President Vladimir Putin’s demands, but analysts say it’s not too late for him to back out of the military confrontation with Ukraine. .
The world is waiting for Russia’s response after Washington refused to bow to Moscow’s demands on Ukraine, including its never joining NATO and the alliance’s deployment in the East. Europe is behind.
While Russia considers its next move, there are growing concerns that Putin may be willing to give the Russian military the green light to invade Ukraine.
Despite repeatedly stressing that it has no plans to launch a military offensive, Russia has stationed around 100,000 troops in various locations along the border with Ukraine, as well as concentrated troops inside the country. neighboring Belarus – their ally -.
There have been numerous diplomatic talks between Russian and Western officials in recent weeks aimed at breaking the deadlock over Ukraine and minimizing the possibility of a military confrontation, but so far it is unclear. Which side will seize the opportunity first.
How far Putin will go – and whether he will back down – when Russia’s pride and geopolitical interests are at stake (or at least in Moscow) is uncertain.
Putin can withdraw, if he wants
Putin is known for his strongman image in Russia, and with the suppression of opposition figures and independent media, the Kremlin can control the domestic narrative when it comes to the president. system.
As a result, analysts say Putin has the ability to maneuver without losing face, but only if he chooses to do so.
Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, told CNBC that, “yes, Putin has built an image of a strong man, but he has enough control over the image and the ability to orchestrate. narrative, which means that de-escalation will not be seen as a weakness by the majority of the Russian public.”
Ironically, Hess argues, the more military assets NATO deploys to Eastern Europe and the more the West threatens Russia with sanctions, the harder it is for Putin to back down.
“Putin can still back down without major domestic consequences, although the more committed the West becomes to Eastern Europe as a whole, the more difficult it will be,” he said.
“New major sanctions would also be much more difficult and less desirable in Putin’s view, although so far the West has insisted that this will be a response to Russia’s actions, not preemptive action (the increasingly complex argument around Nord Stream of course 2).”
Russian President Vladimir Putin sits in his office at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence during a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (on a video screen) via video call.
Mikhail Metzel | TASS | beautiful pictures
Hess added that they may be “elite constituencies” among Russia’s military and intellectual circles that prefer war with Ukraine, “but Putin’s system is quite resilient to policy disagreements between elites and elites. flower.”
Unsurprisingly, the West’s confidence in Russia is very low given that it annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and supported pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Donbas region, a move that further deepens the conflict. adds to the suspicion.
Many analysts believe that a smaller incursion into Russia’s Donbas region is possible – or even likely. This would both save face and destabilize Ukraine, and potentially gain pro-Russian territory. Hess said an attempt to take over Donbas was his basic scenario.
“I think Putin could respond to a breakdown in the negotiations or other ‘negative’ policy outcome (from the Kremlin’s point of view) by limiting major action on Donbas without any major action,” Hess said. push for stronger sanctions that the West has introduced.
Less craving for war
Obviously, Russia’s goal is to maintain its sphere of influence over the countries of the former Soviet Union and prevent the eastward expansion of the Western military alliance NATO. Russia says it has no intention of invading Ukraine and only wants to protect its own security interests.
Putin described the collapse of the Soviet Union as one of the greatest disasters of the 20th century and praised the unification of Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing the two countries’ shared historical, linguistic and cultural ties. country.
This apparent “closeness” of the two countries may be why the Russian public seems to have little interest in war.
Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Russian affairs, has no social requirement that requires society to play as rough as he … Riddle magazine, told CNBC on Monday.
It goes without saying that rhetoric and the official media can make any conflict resolution a victory for Putin, so it would not significantly challenge his position, he noted. at home, at least for the Russian public,” he noted.
An employee presents T-shirts with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s image at a gift shop in Moscow on March 13, 2018. Seven candidates are lined up against Vladimir Putin in the presidential election on March 13, 2018. March 18 that he is certain to win, extending his Kremlin term to 2024 with a fourth term in office.
ALEXANDER NEMENOV / AFP / Getty images
However, Barbashin noted that there was a split among the Russian public reluctant to see a war with Ukraine (especially if it could result in “Russian boys” dying in any confrontation). and the military and conservative elites in Russia.
“For Russia’s military and conservative elites, it makes no sense to back down now,” he said.
Hess agrees that, unlike the 2014 annexation of Crimea when the Russian public supported an invasion, there is less anti-Ukrainian propaganda this time.
“I don’t think the Russian public is soliciting war, nor does Kremlin propaganda focus on massacring Ukrainians to the extent that they did in 2014, even if they are still very hostile to Ukraine. government in Kyiv,” noted Hess.
‘Step back from the brink’
For now, the world is guessing how Putin will react to US responses to Russian demands, moved by the US Ambassador to Moscow to the Kremlin last week. Although exact details of the US response to Russia have not been released, it was met with a cold response in Moscow.
However, both sides continued to talk. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will speak with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday, while other Western leaders also seek to persuade Putin to ease tensions this week. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday he would ask Putin to “step back from the brink” on Ukraine when the two leaders speak later this week.
However, not everyone believes that Putin is ready to roll when it comes to Ukraine.
Ian Bremmer, founder and director of Eurasia Group, said he believes Putin is preparing the Russian public for an invasion by demonizing Ukraine and the West.
“Putin controls the narrative at home (especially given the power of state media), so it’s not really a matter of what he can sell,” told CNBC on Monday. “But it also makes it easier for him to make the decision to escalate – he convinces the Russians that war is coming and it’s all Ukraine and NATO’s fault.”
Bremmer said that Putin would lose credibility on the global stage if he backed down, especially in certain regions, such as countries traditionally allied with Russia.
For this reason, he said, “it is important for Putin to have options for escalation beyond just invading Ukraine.” These could include sending a regular military presence and nuclear weapons to Belarus, “or even establishing bases in the Western Hemisphere (Cuba, Venezuela) as the Deputy Secretary of State has suggested.” , Bremmer added.
