There is some nervousness about the water situation in some quarters because of the current El Nino situation.
But although El Ninos tend to produce lower snowpack and warmer temperatures, the total precipitation is much less impacted. Consistent with this, several wet systems are expected during the next week.
On Sunday, a wet system will move into the region, providing welcome precipitation over the region, including heavy stuff over southwest BC.
This will be snow over higher elevations (above 4000 ft).
Another moist system will come in on Wednesday associated with a Pacific warm front (see below), with bountiful snow in the mountains.
The forecast over the next ten days, based on the European Center ensemble model, suggests copious precipitation over southwest BC and substantial amounts along the entire coast.
This is not a drought situation by any means. In fact, California will be in an excellent situation regarding water supplies.
The US Army Corps of Engineers and others controlling our local dams/reservoirs will hopefully store as much of this wet bounty as possible. They can do this because the weather models do not suggest any dangerous flooding situations for which they would need to draw down water levels.
And for those worried about water and climate change, here is an interesting factoid.
There has been no decline in spring precipitation over the past several decades. In fact, just the opposite: the trends have been positive.
For example, here are the spring precipitation totals back to 1947 at SeaTec. Upward trend (brown line).
Or consider Yakima, amid prime agricultural land in eastern Wa (below). Also getting more moist.
So perhaps the talk of “languishing” and “little hope” should be put on the shelf somewhere.
