There is a hard-line view in Washington that China seeks to displace the United States as a great power. world’s leading power And redo the international system in its illiberal image.
Of course, China has fed these fears by building up its military, advancing its disputed territorial claims, partnering with an avenger Russia, and with its own rhetoric. . China’s President Xi Jinping has vowed to block what he sees as US-led efforts to “prevent, encircle and suppress” Chinaand said “Capitalism will surely perish and socialism will surely win.”
But such ideological claims are partly motivated by insecurity — most Communist countries have collapsed, and the Chinese leadership scared Present Next – and means more to build confidence in the country And loyalty party rather than to reflect actual policy or fixed beliefs.
Ideology in China is itself malleable, rather than a rigid cage of policy decision-making, and has been continually adjusted to justify maintaining one-party rule through decades of major change. . For example, under Mao, capitalists were persecuted as “counter-revolutionaries”. But under President Jiang Zemin, the Chinese Communist Party abandoned its core Marxist beliefs in 2001 by receive private entrepreneurs as a party member. China’s economy today is more capitalist than Marxist and highly dependent on access to world markets.
Judgments of China based on select phrases from party propaganda overlook the frequent gap between words and reality. For example, in 2018 China suppressed Marxist student groups and labor organizers, possibly because — as labor scholars and sociologists Eli Friedman noted — the young activists embody “the Marxist principles that the CCP has long since abandoned in practice.” Likewise, Beijing has for many years emphasized the sanctity of national sovereignty and non-interference in a country’s internal affairs, but provided diplomatic cover for its invasion of Ukraine. Russia.
China’s leading intellectuals openly acknowledge the difficulty of reconciling what China says with what they do. “Even we don’t quite believe what we say,” said Chinese economist Yao Yang, known for his pragmatic views. speak. “Our goal is not to defeat liberalism, but rather to say that what we have can be as good as what you have.” Jiang Shigong, a legal scholar and apologist for Mr. Xi political philosophyHave written that “‘Socialism’ is not a rigid dogma, but instead an open concept awaiting discovery and definition.”
China’s long-term ambitions are difficult to know for sure, and they are subject to change. But it’s present far clear that it can – or even find a way – replace the United States as the world’s dominant power.
Mr. Xi and the CCP clearly see the US as trying to keep China dependent and vulnerable. whatever China does or advocates within an international system that Beijing believes is beneficial to the United States and developed democracies. But, at a minimum, China seems more intent on modify aspects of a system that has prospered – making it safer for autocracy – than replace It.
Xi often speaks of this effort in his political slogans such as the “Chinese dream” and the “common future for mankind”. But there is continue the debate in China about the true meaning of these visions and the costs and risks China must accept in its quest for global leadership. For example, China’s scale of overseas development is constrained by the imperative to address its own long-term development needs at home, the scholar’s study found. little elf showed. The same goes for China’s other key strategies to expand its influence: Attempts to internationalize the renminbi and reduce dollar dominance are constrained by tight controls on value. of the currency, as well as other capital controls. These policies help stabilize the economy and prevent capital flight, but limit the renminbi’s global appeal.
U.S. concerns often focus on legitimate fear that China could attack Taiwan. But despite China’s threatening military exercises aimed at preventing the self-ruled island from moving closer to formal independence, many Experts believe that that Beijing still wants to achieve its long-term goal of “peaceful reunification” through means lack of war. China could lose a war and face international sanctions and supply chain disruptions. These would be economically and politically devastating, jeopardizing Mr. Xi’s top goals of regime security, domestic stability and national rejuvenation.
Facing economic headwinds and shrinking population, growing doubts that China can achieve its goal of surpassing the United States as the world’s largest economy, who cares other figures of global leaders. There is widespread recognition in China that it is still militarily, economy And technology weaker than the United States, and further modernization depends on continued access to technology, capital, and international markets in a stable economic order. “America cannot contain China’s rise,” influential Chinese scholar Huang Renwei wrote note“And China can’t quickly overtake the US either.”
China’s rhetoric about reforming global governance has resonated in many developing countries, which also see international institutions as working against them. But there is small reason believes that the CCP’s self-serving, nationalist ideology will captivate the world, especially when Mr. mistrust with authoritarian lines, coercive tactics towards foreigners businesses And Commercial Partner And policy that seems increasingly paranoid. China tends to be viewed more favorably in developing countries. But that depends more on economics than on ideas, and its offshore investments often criticize because of lack of transparency, burden poor countries with debt, as well as environmental problems and other concerns.
The United States must continue to deter and defend against more threatening Chinese behavior, including by strengthening its ability to resist Taiwan coercion. But Washington should resist being guided entirely by fear, which threatens the openness and dynamism responsible for America’s science and technology leadership. Policymakers should combine deterrence threats with stronger measures effort to look for a construction relationship with China, while defending the core values and interests of an inclusive international order, and calling on Beijing to make more credible commitments to its intentions.
Without a doubt, China – whatever its trajectory – poses an enormous and complex policy challenge to the United States. But exaggerating one’s fear “struggle for survival” increases the likelihood of conflict, dwarfs efforts to address common challenges like climate change, and creates a framework for or against us that could alienate the United States from its allies and partners. world big.
Worse, acting reflexively to overcome or contain China only leads the hardliners in Beijing to believe that the United States is the arch-enemy and that the only response is to weaken America. .
By continuing on that path, the world’s two most powerful nations may turn each other into the enemies they fear.
Jessica Chen Weiss (@jessicacweiss) is a professor of government at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Center for China Analysis of the Asian Institute of Social Policy. She is the author of the book “Strong Patriots: Nationalists’ Protests in China’s Foreign Relations”.
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