We’re drawing ever-closer to the 2021 Breeders’ Cup World Championships. Not solely does the two-day racing pageant characteristic tons of thrilling racing motion, it additionally consists of tons of nice betting alternatives.
Taking part in the horses is all about discovering worth. There’s no level in selecting the favourite in race after race; that’s nearly assuredly a shedding technique in the long term. Alternatively, you don’t wish to blindly wager longshots only for the sake of betting longshots. The hot button is to search out horses who you assume have a great shot of profitable that can go off at respectable costs.
This yr’s Breeders’ Cup options some possible heavy favorites, together with Gamine within the Filly and Mare Sprint, Jackie’s Warrior within the Qatar Racing Sprint, and Life is Good within the Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile. Nevertheless, there’s nonetheless loads of nice betting probabilities on the market, in addition to some horses who may pull the upset and trigger some massive payoffs.
Right here, we’ll check out a few of my worth performs for the weekend, in addition to some longshots to boost the motion.
Friday, Nov. 5
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (submit time 5:50 p.m. ET)
The betting on this race will undergo coach Wesley Ward’s two finest horses: #6 Twilight Gleaming and #8 Averly Jane. Though 2-year-old sprinting on the grass is usually a recipe for chaos, this race has been formful in its quick historical past. Bulletin, who gained at 4.30-1 in 2018, is the highest-price horse to win this race up to now. Nonetheless, three races isn’t an excellent historic pattern dimension, and there’s just a few horses in right here who may spring an upset.
Worth Play: #7 Armor (6-1) One in all a number of Europeans within the race, he gained the Markel Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood in July. Since then, he’s been no worse than fourth in three group stakes races in England, together with a near-miss within the Juddmonte Center Park Stakes final out at Newmarket. He’s been preserving firm with a few of the finest 2-year-olds in Europe, and now takes a drop in school (you don’t get to say that too usually on the Breeders’ Cup!) into this spot. I’m hoping that he drifts up a bit from his 6-1 morning line; if he does, he’d be a superb play.
Reside Longshot: #10 Time to Party (15-1) Flavien Prat is taken into account by many to be the highest grass jockey within the nation. It’s not day-after-day that he rides a longshot in a grass race, however he’ll be aboard Time to Celebration, who’s prone to go off at a fair bigger value than his morning-line odds. He was a strong-closing second within the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita Park final out, simply lacking behind one of many favorites within the Juvenile Turf Dash, #9 One Timer. Coach Peter Miller is superb with horses in grass sprints, and Prat hits at 30% when using Miller’s horses. You probably have the price range to make use of a number of horses in your multi-race bets, don’t go away this one off your tickets.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (submit time 7:10 p.m. ET)
Fourteen 2-year-old fillies will go one mile on the grass on this race. The morning line favourite is #1 Pizza Bianca, at 5-1. It’s very uncommon to see a morning-line favourite at these type of odds. In a race like this, you’ll get respectable odds on nearly each horse.
Worth Play: #7 Consumer Spending (8-1) We’ll strive one other horse ridden by Flavien Prat. He groups up with prime grass coach Chad Brown, who has gained this race 5 occasions, on Shopper Spending. This Extra Than Prepared filly broke her maiden impressively at Saratoga over the summer time after which gained the Selima Stakes at Laurel Park final out with a decisive closing rally. Two years in the past, Sharing parlayed Selima success right into a Breeders’ Cup victory. Shopper Spending improved her velocity determine by a number of factors on this yr’s Selima, incomes an 82 on the Equibase scale and an 88 on the Brisnet scale. I’m hoping that she takes one other step ahead Friday and goes off at an honest value.
Saturday, Nov. 6
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (submit time 3:40 p.m. ET)
This race options 12 horses sprinting 5 furlongs on the grass, together with a number of 3-year-olds. One in all them is the morning line favourite, #3 Golden Pal. I’ll attempt to beat him with one other 3-year-old.
Worth Play: #6 A Case of You (8-1) Over the previous few months, A Case of You has established himself as one of many prime 3-year-old sprinters in Europe. He completed second at 33-1 within the Derrinstown Stud Flying Free Stakes two races again after which gained the Prix d’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines by a head final out. In each of these races, he defeated Glass Slippers, who gained the 2020 Turf Dash and is prone to be one of many favorites in Saturday’s renewal. This colt is rounding into career-best type and will ship an enormous efficiency at an honest value.
Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (submit time 4:59 p.m. ET)
Seven of the 12 horses in listed here are internationally-based, and as such will probably appeal to plenty of consideration. I’ll flip mine in the direction of an American-based mare prone to go off at lengthy odds.
Reside Longshot: #2 Pocket Square (15-1) This 4-year-old filly made her American debut in April for Chad Brown, and he or she has been getting higher with each begin. She most lately gained the Athenia Stakes at Belmont Park final out in an enormous efficiency. She closed off an especially gradual tempo and gained by 2 ½ lengths going away. Her velocity determine for that race wasn’t a profession excessive, however given how gradual the early tempo was, it’s not going that Pocket Sq. may’ve run a sooner ultimate time if she had tried. This race ought to characteristic a extra trustworthy tempo, which is able to arrange nicely for Pocket Sq.’s late rally.
Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint (submit time 5:38 p.m. ET)
#2 Jackie’s Warrior is the probably odds-on favourite on this race, however there’s one other horse in right here that I believe has an enormous probability to win, at significantly better odds.
Reside Longshot: #5 Aloha West (8-1) This Maryland-bred 4-year-old hasn’t gained a graded stakes but, and hasn’t even competed in a Grade 1 race. Nevertheless, he’s been bettering all yr lengthy and has run some massive races in his previous couple of begins. Two races in the past, he simply defeated a third-level allowance elective claiming area at Saratoga. In his graded stakes debut, the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 8, he closed furiously to get second, overwhelmed only a neck by Special Reserve. On most velocity determine scales, he’s just a few factors slower than Jackie’s Warrior. If Jackie’s Warrior regresses just a little bit, or if Aloha West improves by just some factors, we may see an enormous upset.
FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF (submit time 6:20 p.m. ET)
There’s 4 foreigners in the principle physique of the 14-horse area, together with the morning-line favourite, #3 Space Blues. I’ll take a shot with one other European.
Worth Play: #12 Pearls Galore (12-1) She’s attempting to change into the fourth 3-year-old filly to win the Mile, becoming a member of Ridgewood Pearl in 1995, Six Perfections in 2003, and Goldikova in 2008 (Goldikova went on to win the Mile once more at ages 4 and 5). This Paddy Twomey-trained filly gained two Group 3 races in Eire earlier within the yr, and was lately second in two Group 1 races in Eire and France. In her final begin, she led briefly within the stretch earlier than being overtaken by Area Blues. She was overwhelmed two lengths by that rival, and can probably go off at a a lot greater value than he’ll. I’m hoping for some additional enchancment at a big quantity.
Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (submit time 7:40 p.m. ET)
There’s loads of Europeans to select from right here as nicely. The morning line favourite is #13 Tarnawa, the defending Longines Turf winner who’s pegged at 9-5 odds. That’s an awfully low value to tackle a horse who has not gained a Grade or Group 1 race this yr and is breaking from an out of doors submit place. I’ll look elsewhere.
Worth Play: #9 Sisfahan (12-1) This lightly-raced 3-year-old gained the Deutsches Derby, the German equal of the Kentucky Derby, by 1 ¼ lengths again in July. Since then, he’s raced nicely in two tries in Group 1 races in opposition to older horses, together with a third-place end within the Preis von Europa Stakes final out. He’s confirmed at 1 ½ miles and is making his third begin off a quick layoff. He suits the mildew of an missed European who can upset a significant Breeders’ Cup race.
