By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The 2023 Triple Crown closes on Saturday with the stellar $1.5 million Belmont S. (G1) renovation at Belmont Park.
You can confirm that the third and final leg of this year’s Triple Crown is being considered the strongest. A series of scratches took away some of the Kentucky Derby’s (G1) sparkle, while the Preakness S. (G1) came in with a small field. On the other hand, Belmont drew four Class 1 winners led by the two-year-old male champion. #6 Forte (5-2) and the hero Preakness #5 National Treasure (5-1). It’s a deep race from top to bottom.
Forte is a morning favorite for obvious reasons. Coached by four-time Belmont-winning coach Todd Pletcher, Forte has crossed the barrier first in six of his seven starts, including accolades like the Breeders’ Cup for minors (G1) and Florida Derby (G1). In the second race, Forte regrouped skillfully at home to beat Mage, who came back to win the Kentucky Derby. And in the Juvenile Breeders’ Cup, Forte counted the National Treasure among his defeated opponents.
But Forte is not without cracks in the armor. He scraped the Kentucky Derby with a bruise on his leg and joined Belmont after a 10-week unplanned layoff. Furthermore, it’s fair to question whether CashCall Futurity (G1) winner’s son Violent has a pedigree that shines more than 1 1/2 miles away; Violent progeny wins by a modest average distance of 6.7 furlongs per Brisnet stat, and he has yet to produce a US Rank 1 winner over a distance longer than 1 1/8 mile.
National Treasure is sure to become a popular alternative to Forte after leading from start to finish to a win over Preakness over Champagne (G1) winner Blazing Sevens, with Mage finishing in third. after 2 1/4 of the way. But it’s worth noting that National Treasure enjoyed a dream trip in the Preakness, securing an unverifiable lead through slow fractions of :23.95, :48.92 and 1:13, 49.
It is possible that the National Treasure will escape at another slow pace in Belmont, as the only other obvious speed horse on paper is the long shot #5 Il Miracolo (30-1), who recorded both of his victories in a gate-fight style. But National Treasure is in a tough spot, because while the slow pace will help his chances, it will also make it difficult for him. #2 Tapit Trice (3-1) in the perfect position to win.
Bought for $1.3 million as an avid pup, the Tapit Trice is Tapit’s stout crossbreed from the Dunkirk Danzatrice mare. Tapit singled out the winners of Belmont Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017) and Essential Quality (2021), while Danzatrice won multiple shares in the long run and Dunkirk placed second in Belmont 2009. In other words, the Tapit Trice was bred top and bottom to shine in the 1 1/2 mile race.
Tapit Trice was in hot form throughout the winter and spring, rallying to win four races in a row. In the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby (G3), the pace was brisk and Tapit Trice trailed the leaders, but in the lengthy final he won 4 1/4 intervals. way to win away. In the 1 1/8 mile (G1) Blue Grass, a modest pace played out and Tapit Trice joined much earlier, eventually taking down multiple Rank 1 Tests to win the gap.
Tapit Trice started among the favorites in the Kentucky Derby, but he couldn’t keep up the sizzling initial pace and dropped to the bottom. Normally, such speed would benefit late runners, but in Tapit Trice’s case it left him with too much work to do and he could only rally late to finish seventh.
I believe the Belmont is a much better fit for the Tapit Trice than the Kentucky Derby. He is a pony with a long stride and is difficult to stop once he starts walking, so Belmont’s smaller pitch and (presumably) slower pace will play to Tapit Trice’s strengths, for allowing him to reach a half point pre-dispute like in Blue Grass. From there, I believe that Tapit Trice will be difficult to hold the way at home.
For small prizes, I would love to support #3 Arcangelo (8-1), who overcame slow pace to rally and won the 1 1/8 mile Peter Pan (G3) in Belmont last month. Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner’s son Arrogate is produced by Tapit mare Modeling, whose dam-Teeming-is half-sister to winners Belmont Jazil and Rags to Riches. Stretching over 1 1/2 miles could take Arcangelo one step further, sending him on the hunt for third place to the finish line.
#8 Angel of the Empire (7-2) will draw backing after rallying to finish third in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner is a pure nearer who added for the first time blink of an eye. His talent makes him contestable here, but I wonder if the addition of blink increases his initial speed and weakens his finishing kick, a concern because the Angel of Empire is running a quarter mile farther than ever.
Angel of Empire’s stable friend #7 Views (10-1) was a much bigger price tag on the morning track, but he was not disgraced in the Kentucky Derby, finishing fifth after racing closer to hot pace than many other top finishers . The previous Hit Show won Withers S. (G3) and came in second by nose in the Wood Memorial (G2) 1 1/8 mile race, and his pedigree shows that 1 1/2 miles is within reach. A place in the masterpiece is not an issue for this capable pony.
Select
First time: Tapit Trice
Monday: Arcangelo
Tuesday: Forte
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in Belmont Stakes?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled athlete, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
