By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A field of excellence was involved in Saturday’s 148th game of the $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs. The historic 1 1/4 mile race drew 22 horses (including two stallions), including 14 ranked bet winners and four 1st place winners.
There are many ways to overcome this competitive race. It is believed to be one of the deepest and widest Derbys since 2012, when Tier 1 winners were established, I’ll Have Another, Bodemeister, Dullahan, Creative Cause, Liaison, Union Rags, Hansen, Gemologist and Take Charge Indy waged the battle.
Considering the Kentucky Derby is often the most scrutinized race of the year, choosing a horse based solely on an element of disability seems ludicrous. However, that is exactly what I will do by supporting # 10 Mo Donegal (10-1) is my top pick in Run for the Roses 2022.
To be fair, there are plenty of reasons why I like Mo Donegal. I love the guts and determination he showed as he rallied from behind at a very slow pace to beat Kentucky Derby favorite Zandon in a Remsen S. (G2) match at the Aqueduct last fall. I love the way he made it through traffic after a two-month break from illness to win at Wood Memorial (G2) last month. I love how the Kentucky Derby will mark his third game of the season, setting the stage for the best performance of his career.
But above all, I love the way Mo Donegal ended up in the Wood Memorial, and that’s why I picked him for the Kentucky Derby. Some late runners succeed when the jogger jogs in front of them, making it easier for them to catch up. But Mo Donegal succeeded because he possessed a sharp turn to finish.
In Wood Memorial, the speed is stable with fractions: 23.86, :47.75 and 1: 11.59. It was controlled enough for Withers winner S. (G3) to run ahead Early voting had plenty of gas left for the final three stretches, which he spiked in: 36.42 seconds per Trakus.
Such a quick finish would have won in most versions of Wood Memorial, but Early Voting unfortunately ran into Mo Donegal on a day when he had run out of skin by then. Mo Donegal made it through the Early Voting Round with 4 1/2 lengths in the three-eighth column, but somehow sped up the final three stretches in an epic: 35.61 to get up and win win by neck. According to Trakus, Mo Donegal ran the last match with a score of 11.97.
Fractions like these are almost never seen in the Road to Kentucky Derby qualifiers, and Mo Donegal was rewarded with a sizable 121 Brisnet Late Pace rating, the highest number in the Kentucky Derby field. Who do you think has the highest body measurements? That would also be Mo Donegal, who threw down a 117 in Remsen.
I usually don’t support those who close the deep in the Kentucky Derby. The last man to cross the finish line first was Orb in 2013. But there’s a fair amount of pace on paper in the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and I’m optimistic that Mo Donegal will get the setup he needs to shine. . A speed reduction may not be necessary; any kind of solid pacing (as in Wood Memorial) will give Mo Donegal a fighting chance to usher in a winning rally.
Who are the other key contenders in the Kentucky Derby? Louisiana Derby Winner (G2) #3 Epicenter (7-2) and the hero Blue Grass S. (G1) # 10 Zandon (3-1) are obvious threats, although I’m a bit concerned about the speed Epicenter getting a clean ride from column 3. The drawing inside the other important speed horses is perhaps not ideal for Epicenter, who may have to sprint hard early to avoid falling behind the competition.
I also want to support the team that finished 1-2 in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) # 12 Taiba (12-1) and #6 Messy (8-1). I loved the relentless rally Taiba unleashed on his lone start on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, knocking out Messier to win 2 1/4 of the time. But Taiba has only had two starts under him and it can be a bit hard to believe coming back just four weeks after a tough effort on his two-legged debut.
In contrast, Messier came back from a two-month break in the Santa Anita Derby and ran a good trick in the defeat. He held the Forbidden Kingdom’s key rival and led him into the house before succumbing to Taiba’s belated accusations. If Messier advances in the Kentucky Derby (as recent bouts of bouts suggest he can), I’m optimistic he can contend for victory at the hands of runner John Velazquez in the Boulevard. Fame. The Messier was bred to enjoy racing 1 1/4 mile cars, so if Velazquez puts Messier in the lead (as he did with his first Authentic Derby and recently Medina Spirit), Messier could prove difficult to run. down.
Mo Donegal, Taiba and Messier should all offer attractive odds in betting, but if you want to put in an even greater range in exotic bets, #7 Pride Crown (20-1) is worth watching. I’ve been waiting to play a Japanese horse in the Derby ever since Master Fencer surpassed all expectations to run seventh across the finish line in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, hitting a ton of ground late to finish just 2 1/4 of the length after the winner gets the Country House upgrade.
Japan is known for producing the finest field horses, but its dirt track athletes are also on the rise, as evidenced by Marche Lorraine’s upset 49-1 win at Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) last year. Crown Pride is the decisive winner of the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai and has provided a lot of encouragement to practice (including a pair of ballistic half-mile moves) since arriving at Churchill Downs, so don’t be surprised if he beats his odds and snatches a piece of the Kentucky Derby wallet.
Selection
First: Mo Donegal
Monday: Messier
Tuesday: Taiba
Wednesday: Heart Earth
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the 2022 Kentucky Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers the Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
