On Tuesday, the Washington State Department of Ecology declared a DRY EMERGENCY for nearly the entire state (see map below).
As I will describe below, this really makes no sense. Actual reality, meteorological observations, and common sense show that this claim is simply wrong.
But you decide after considering the facts.
If you look at the map, a strange feature is apparent: there is no drought emergency from Everett to Tacoma, which accounts for about 65% of the State’s population.
How is that possible? The weather systems that control our weather cover large areas of the state, and meteorologically, nothing special was observed in that small urban corridor.
Another strange observation is that this map has MUCH more severe drought than the ongoing drought-crazy NOAA/USDA Drought Monitor graphic (below). The Federal Drought Monitor has ZERO dry conditions across more than half the State. Drought only occurs in about 20% of the state.
Why would a state agency release drought information that contradicts the Federal numbers?
As I’ll show below, the state has had only slightly below normal precipitation this winter, and current snowfall is only about 65% of normal. Projected impacts are at best negligible and the reservoirs are generally in very good shape.
But first a little philosophy and perspective.
We live in one of the wettest locations in the US (see map). An area with a very modest population considering the carrying capacity of the land, and one that often receives more rain than we need or can use, with excess water spilling out into the Pacific Ocean.
In such a situation, does it really matter that our rainfall is 10% lower than normal and our snowfall is a third lower? A bit silly really.
The truth is real
I wish the Washington State Department of Ecology had reviewed available weather and climate information before requiring the “D.” big. And perhaps they should study a definition of drought, such as the one provided by the National Weather Service:
“A moisture deficiency causes adverse effects on humans, animals or plants over a large area.”
The big question is one of impact. Or lack thereof.
Another word that should have been looked up is urgent:
“unforeseeable combination of circumstances or conditions that result in a requirement for immediate action”
Let’s start with precipitation. Below is a chart of precipitation over Washington State for the water year from October to March over the past 50 years. The average is shown by the blue line. This year is clearly below normal (about 90% of normal), but many years it is much less. Most of them have no drought emergencies. And the impact of dry years is generally very small.
Well, what about the reservoir?
Seattle’s key reservoirs are all above normal levels (see below). I repeat ON normal.
For agriculture, the Yakima reservoir is important. The latest water level information shows Yakima water reserves are roughly the same as last year and about 78% of normal. The Bureau of Reclamation notes that those with higher water rights will receive the entire allocation, while lower levels will receive about 63%. Most agriculture will be fine.
What about forecast river levels in late summer (mid-September)? About 80-90% for Columbia and about 65-80% for Yakima. Much higher for rivers in Oregon. Nothing serious.
Finally, there’s the current snowfall, which is about 65% of normal across Washington State. So there’s still a significant amount of snow left to melt on the mountains, but less than usual.
I spoke with a local former U.S. Army Corps of Engineers leader about the current water situation. He noted that with current snow levels and reservoir levels, there should be no problems this summer.
Crop moisture index is near normal (not shown).
Bottom line
This winter has had slightly less than normal precipitation and slightly less than normal snowfall (because of warmer than normal temperatures this El Niño year). There will be plenty of water to drink and modest declines for some junior water rights holders in eastern Washington. Most major crops (such as apples, cherries and wheat) grew well. So there is no reason to panic at this point. There is no ongoing drought emergency.
And don’t forget the temperatures….the other side of severe droughts. Warm weather causes dry soil. So the forecast temperature for the next month or so is very important. The best extended forecast for next month (Europe Center see below) is for COOLER THAN NORMAL conditions, which will reduce evaporation loss, reducing the potential for damaging drought conditions Han.
Finally, there is the famous story of the crying wolf….and it doesn’t end well
