ice formed along Hudson Bay, the Wrangel & Franz Josef Islands surrounding – Are you striking for that?

By Polar Bear Science

Dr. Susan Crockford

Polar bears in West Hudson Bay near Churchill will be able to leave the coast within days a week later than in the 1980sthough you wouldn’t know it from climate change activists in Polar Bears International who spent? last week advertising in a way too sublime false and misleading statements. PBI controls the story Surrounded by bears in Western Hudson Bay through their partnership with biggest polar bear travel costume in Churchill and online.

Yesterday, it was “Let’s see how the climate crisis is changing their world.”

Growing no slower than 2007 (16 years unchanged), Arctic sea ice is supplying polar bears in southern regions second most important earning opportunity while in areas like Wrangel Island and Franz Josef Land, they can now easily reach and travel from the important summer refuge/maternity islands. And contrary to predictions of increased ‘conflict’ between polar bears and those around Churchill, there have been fewer problem reports there in recent years, This year includes. In other words, there is no ‘climate crisis’ for polar bears, even in West Hudson Bayand recent models of a dire future for polar bears are based on The worst-case climate scenarios are completely unimaginable. The gradual loss of sea ice since 1979 to the extent that polar bears have been able to adapt, through natural selection or change in behavior.

Ice conditions in the Arctic sea

Are from NSIDC, The October summary shows no downward trend in sea ice coverage since 2007, despite repeated claims by some activists that sea ice status has decreased. constantly worsening:

What does the tape chart show

Close-up image taken from the chart above on November 9, 2022 (overall ice cover 9.5mk2)

West Hudson Bay

The freezing process this year is a bit slower than 2020, ie as early as the earliest freezes in the 1980ss, but not much. During the 1980s, most bears left the ice upon freezing (10% sea ice cover) around November 16 ± 5 days (Castro de la Guardia 2017, see chart below). The bears left the ice as early as 1991 and 1993, on November 6 (Julian’s 310) – in 2020, most of the bears disappeared by November 8. one of the earliest dates on record.

Thus, the freezing dates of November 10-12 or so (Days 314-316) for 2017, 2018 and 2019 are some of the earliest freeze days recorded since 1979 (as early as June 6). November, 310, 1991 and 1993), even earlier than the 1980s average. This year is similar.

That means Explorer.org’s PBI-linked ‘Cloud’ moderator passed misinformation to viewers when she said two days ago [my bold]:

“The ice is just beginning to form on Hudson Bay. It’s much later than in previous years, but typical of our present times. “

Almost all Hudson Bay West bears leave shore within about 2 days when sea ice concentrations reach 10% (Castro de la Guardia 2017), although South Hudson Bay bears leave shore when it reaches about 5% (Obbard et al. 2015, 2016). In other words, the bears go as soon as possible (Stirling et al. 1977).

The Hudson Bay Sea Ice

November 7 weekly coverage over previous years and long-term averages (Free Canada Ice Service) for the NW area of ​​the bay, showing Just a small change has in recent decades:

Daily coverage for November 9:

and to the south…

Churchill Problem Bears

After 15 weeks ashore this year, there have been several problems with polar bears in Churchill:

Compare the above to the same week in 2016, when freezing quite late:

Polar bear photo from Wapusk . National Park

Courtesy of Explore.org web cams

Below: two males fighting vigorously, Nov.

Presenter

Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, PG, Derocher, AE, Lunn, NJ, Terwisscha van Scheltinga, AD 2017. Cycle of sea ice west of Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear’s perspective. Sea Ecological Progress Series 564: 225–233. http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v564/p225-233/

Obbard, ME, Stapleton, S., Middel, KR, Thibault, I., Brodeur, V. and Jutras, C. 2015. Estimating the abundance of polar bear populations in South Hudson Bay by aerial surveys. Biological Pole 38: 1713-1725.

Obbard, ME, Cattet, MRI, Howe, EJ, Middel, KR, Newton, EJ, Kolenosky, GB, Abraham, KF and Greenwood, CJ 2016. Trends in body condition in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the South Hudson Bay subpopulation associated with sea ice changes. Arctic Science 2:15-32. DOI: 10.1139 / AS-2015-0027

Stirling I, Jonkel C, Smith P, Robertson R, Cross D. 1977. The ecosystem of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) along the west coast of Hudson Bay. Wildlife Service Canada Periodic Report No. 33. pdf here.