By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The year 2022 is coming to an end with a resounding success on the horse racing front. An action-packed Saturday featuring a range of quality races across the country, including half a dozen stakes (five of which are ranked) at Gulfstream Park.
The richest prize pool at Gulfstream is $200,000 Ft. Lauderdale S. (G2) and Harlan’s Holiday S. (G3) $150,000, local stepping stones towards the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and Pegasus World Cup (G1) Fields.
We will focus on these two races in the Ultimate Unlock Winners blog post of the year:
Ft. Lauderdale S. (G2)
I suppose there is a school of thought that says #12 Colonel Liam prone to discomfort in this 1/8 mile test. The morning favorites haven’t run since finishing ninth in the Dubai Turf (G1) in March, and he’s risked going far by passing post 12.
But I believe Colonel Liam will win. He’s 3 to 3 at Gulfstream Park, won the Tropical Park Derby in 2020 before winning the Pegasus World Cup Turf in 2021 and 2022. Furthermore, Colonel Liam is already in the habit of winning. winning races after protracted layoffs; The Tropical Park Derby marked his first game in four and a half months and he won the 2022 Pegasus World Cup after an eight-month break.
The spacious trips didn’t bother Colonel Liam either. He raced wide in the Tropical Park Derby and dominated with 3 1/4 lengths. Similarly, he raced outside of rivals in the 2022 Pegasus World Cup Turf before going on to win it for a long period of time.
Colonel Liam has won five shares and three Class 1 awards over the course of his fired career, so he’s clearly the most accomplished horse in Ft. Lauderdale fields. He is racing a 3 to 4 in 1 1/8 mile (with his only defeat being in the offshore Dubai Turf), and he is putting together a sharp work plan to prepare for a comeback. mine. I predict Colonel Liam will win thanks to hot relationships Irad Ortiz and Todd Pletcher, who are taking 25% and 22% respectively at Gulfstream this month.
Harlan S.’s Holiday (G3)
Eight talented horses gathered for the year’s final graded stakes at Gulfstream Park. Three are Kentucky Derby (G1) veterans and another started in Preakness S. (G1) and Belmont S. (G1), so the field is pretty deep for Grade 3.
At first glance, it’s tempting to support #1 O’Connor. A Group 1 winner in his native Chile, O’Connor thrived on his U.S. debut in a 1/16-mile grant option claimant at Gulfstream in October. After settling half a dozen degrees Long at a fast pace, O’Connor rallied strongly to beat next winner Marion County Florida Sire S. Octane six lengths, with classified bet winner Sole Volante once again turning around. in third place.
But here’s the problem—there isn’t an explicit speed specifier entered in the Harlan’s Holiday field. In fact, many of the participants were clearly not up to speed. It seems unlikely that O’Connor will receive such a favorable setup as in his subsidy victory.
A slow tempo will definitely play to the strengths of #4 Simplify. The successful three-year-old is a Gulf Park pro; His 6-3-1-2 record on the Gulfstream dirt track is higher than his 6-0-0-1 record on all other tracks and surfaces.
Not that Simplified didn’t do well on several other tracks this year. He finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, beaten only 3 and a half minutes to a strong pitch. He also finished fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx Racing, beaten only by Class 1 winners Taiba, Zandon and Cyberknife. Most recently, Simplify finished seventh against a group of opponents deep in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) at Keeneland.
Simplification is downgrading Harlan’s Holidays, but a return to Gulfstream could be a bigger boon. He thrived on this track last winter, dominating Mucho Macho Man S. four distances and Fountain of Youth S. (G2) three-and-a-half. He also finished in a tough second in the Holy Bull S. (G3) and picked up pace as he finished third in the Florida Derby (G1).
Simplify with speed and tactical metrics to enjoy the perfect ride setting or follow the slow pace on Harlan’s Vacation. He started training effectively at Gulfstream and looked ready for a winning performance.
Now it’s your turn! Who is your favorite among the Gulfstream graded stocks this Saturday?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled athlete, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
